Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.</li>
<li>Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.
Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a> recorded 32% growth in revenue to INR50B in Q4FY23, driven by 58% YoY growth in US formulation business. India business revenue grew 11% YoY.</li>
<li>US business growth was driven by volume expansion in existing products and new launches. The company has launched eight new products in the US during the quarter.</li>
<li>Going ahead, growth is expected to moderate, due to high base effect. The company expects single-digit growth in the US business in FY24, slower than 28% growth recorded in FY23.</li>
</ul>



Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) recorded 32% growth in revenue to INR50B in Q4FY23, driven by 58% YoY growth in US formulation business. India business revenue grew 11% YoY.
US business growth was driven by volume expansion in existing products and new launches. The company has launched eight new products in the US during the quarter.
Going ahead, growth is expected to moderate, due to high base effect. The company expects single-digit growth in the US business in FY24, slower than 28% growth recorded in FY23.


Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong Q4 Result Driven by US Business; Forward Growth to Moderate

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Cipla reported the highest-ever US business to the tune of $204 Mn (+5% QoQ), which was majority led by better execution in the base business and a higher-than-expected revenue contribution from gRevlimid in the last quarter.</li><li>gLanreotide gained market share (MS) to 17% while gAlbuterol maintain MS of ~20%.</li><li>gAdvair is delayed by almost one year and its manufacturing may go to overseas facilities.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Cipla reported the highest-ever US business to the tune of $204 Mn (+5% QoQ), which was majority led by better execution in the base business and a higher-than-expected revenue contribution from gRevlimid in the last quarter.gLanreotide gained market share (MS) to 17% while gAlbuterol maintain MS of ~20%.gAdvair is delayed by almost one year and its manufacturing may go to overseas facilities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CIPLA Ltd - Positive Outlook Despite Regulatory Challenges

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> announced mixed Q4FY23 result, with revenue beating consensus and net profit missing expectations. Both revenue and net profit grew YoY but declined sequentially.</li>
<li>North America grew 27% YoY (but declined 17% QoQ) to INR25.3B, driven by new product launches, growing market share in certain existing products, and favorable Fx movement.</li>
<li>Revenue from India business increased 32% YoY and 14% QoQ to INR12.8B, driven by favorable price variance, new product launches including acquired/in-licensed products, and non-core brand divestments.</li>
</ul>



Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) announced mixed Q4FY23 result, with revenue beating consensus and net profit missing expectations. Both revenue and net profit grew YoY but declined sequentially.
North America grew 27% YoY (but declined 17% QoQ) to INR25.3B, driven by new product launches, growing market share in certain existing products, and favorable Fx movement.
Revenue from India business increased 32% YoY and 14% QoQ to INR12.8B, driven by favorable price variance, new product launches including acquired/in-licensed products, and non-core brand divestments.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Q4FY23 Result- Sequential Decline in Key Parameters

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma</a>  raised around US$527m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.</li>
<li>We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma  raised around US$527m in its upcoming India IPO.
MP is a pharmaceutical company engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of pharmaceutical formulations across various acute and chronic therapeutic areas, as well as several consumer healthcare products.
We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous note, in this note, we talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Mankind Pharma IPO Trading - Strong Insti Demand Makes up for Retail Lag

India

Cipla Limited manufactures and sells pharmaceutical and personal care products. The Company offers active pharmaceutical ingredients, and formulations in therapeutic areas, such as allergy, analgesic, anti malarial, anti-infectives, cardiology, dermatology and cosmeceuticals, diabetology, gastroenterology, steroids, iron chelators, nutritional products.

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Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN): Strong Q4 Result Driven by US Business; Forward Growth to Moderate

Zydus Lifesciences recorded 32% revenue growth to INR50B in Q4FY23, driven by 58% growth in US formulation business. The company expects single...

Tina Banerjee

CIPLA Ltd - Positive Outlook Despite Regulatory Challenges

Cipla reported the highest-ever US business to the tune of $204 Mn (+5% QoQ), which was majority led by better execution in the base business and a...

Axis Direct

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Q4FY23 Result- Sequential Decline in Key Parameters

Dr. Reddy's announced mixed Q4 result, with revenue beating consensus and net profit missing expectations. Both revenue and net profit grew YoY but...

Tina Banerjee

Mankind Pharma IPO Trading - Strong Insti Demand Makes up for Retail Lag

Mankind Pharma raised around US$527m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the demand updates and the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

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