Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indocement-tunggal-prakarsa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4040:1" rel="noopener">Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayamitra-telekomunikasi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Dayamitra Telekomunikasi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a>.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30 Index, and 3 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 31 January.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Central Asia, Indosat, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, MAP Aktif Adiperkasa, Bank Mandiri Persero, Ciputra Development and XL Axiata.
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Catur Sentosa Adiprana / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catur-sentosa-adiprana-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18671:1" rel="noopener">Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ)</a> has grown rapidly from a building material distribution company into the leading retailer in building materials and home improvement through Mitra10 and shop-in-shop Atria. </li>
<li>The company already has 52 Mitra10 superstores in Indonesia, with six distribution centres across the country, selling a range of home decoration products, with an increasing portion of private labels.</li>
<li>CSAP has seen a market improvement in margins for Mitra10 through more private label and scale benefits, and margins will continue to improve. Valuations are attractive with earnings growth accelerating. </li>
</ul>



Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ) has grown rapidly from a building material distribution company into the leading retailer in building materials and home improvement through Mitra10 and shop-in-shop Atria. 
The company already has 52 Mitra10 superstores in Indonesia, with six distribution centres across the country, selling a range of home decoration products, with an increasing portion of private labels.
CSAP has seen a market improvement in margins for Mitra10 through more private label and scale benefits, and margins will continue to improve. Valuations are attractive with earnings growth accelerating. 


PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana - One-Stop Shop for Homemakers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3121:1" rel="noopener">Lippo Karawaci's</a> results made for interesting reading with underlying profitability improving in its real estate and lifestyle segments as it reduced its Siloam stake and reduced its debt.</li>
<li>Real estate marketing sales in 1H2024 made up 58% of FY2024 guidance, with affordable landed housing driving growth across multiple projects targeting first-time buyers utilising readily available mortgages.</li>
<li>LPKR further reduced its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospitals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:878:1" rel="noopener">Siloam International Hospitals</a> in September through the tender offer and will further reduce its debt with proceeds. LPKR is back on the investor radar.</li>
</ul>



Lippo Karawaci's results made for interesting reading with underlying profitability improving in its real estate and lifestyle segments as it reduced its Siloam stake and reduced its debt.
Real estate marketing sales in 1H2024 made up 58% of FY2024 guidance, with affordable landed housing driving growth across multiple projects targeting first-time buyers utilising readily available mortgages.
LPKR further reduced its holding in Siloam International Hospitals in September through the tender offer and will further reduce its debt with proceeds. LPKR is back on the investor radar.


Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) - Building Solid Foundations

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>CTRA booked resilient 2Q24 pre-sales, supporting 1H24 to form 55/53% of mgmt/our FY24F, with above-expected sales from Serpong Elaia.</li><li>VAT-exempted products rose to 43% of marketing sales, which we estimate to translate into ~Rp800bn net profit (35% to our FY24F).</li><li>We reiterate our Buy rating (TP Rp1,700); CTRA is poised to benefit from higher landed-residential demand and falling interest rate sentiment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CTRA booked resilient 2Q24 pre-sales, supporting 1H24 to form 55/53% of mgmt/our FY24F, with above-expected sales from Serpong Elaia.VAT-exempted products rose to 43% of marketing sales, which we estimate to translate into ~Rp800bn net profit (35% to our FY24F).We reiterate our Buy rating (TP Rp1,700); CTRA is poised to benefit from higher landed-residential demand and falling interest rate sentiment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ciputra Development - Expect Landed-Residential to Remain a Key Pillar for 2H24 Marketing Sales

<ul><li>We believe CTRA will be able to maintain its strong pre-sales trend in 2H24 (1H24 est. +3% yoy), driven by its vast landed-residential projects.</li><li>Our channel check on Elaia Serpong shows a potential Rp270-300bn pre-sales in 2Q24. We raise our overall FY24F est. by 17% to Rp11.5tr.</li><li>We resume coverage with a Buy rating and RNAV-based TP of Rp1,700 (assuming slightly higher disc. to RNAV of 52%); CTRA is our sector pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe CTRA will be able to maintain its strong pre-sales trend in 2H24 (1H24 est. +3% yoy), driven by its vast landed-residential projects.Our channel check on Elaia Serpong shows a potential Rp270-300bn pre-sales in 2Q24. We raise our overall FY24F est. by 17% to Rp11.5tr.We resume coverage with a Buy rating and RNAV-based TP of Rp1,700 (assuming slightly higher disc. to RNAV of 52%); CTRA is our sector pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ciputra Development - Expect Strong Marketing Sales Trend to Continue in 2H24

Indonesia

Ciputra Development is one of Indonesia's leading and most diversified property companies. It specializes in developing and managing residential, commercial, and mixed-use properties, including houses, apartments, offices, shopping centers, hotels, hospitals, and golf courses. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana - One-Stop Shop for Homemakers

Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ) has grown from a building material distribution company into the leading Indonesian retailer in building materials...

Angus Mackintosh

Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) - Building Solid Foundations

Lippo Karawaci's results made for interesting reading with underlying profitability improving in its real estate and lifestyle segments as it...

Angus Mackintosh

Ciputra Development - Expect Landed-Residential to Remain a Key Pillar for 2H24 Marketing Sales

CTRA booked resilient 2Q24 pre-sales, supporting 1H24 to form 55/53% of mgmt/our FY24F, with above-expected sales from Serpong Elaia.

BRI Danareksa Research

Ciputra Development - Expect Strong Marketing Sales Trend to Continue in 2H24

We believe CTRA will be able to maintain its strong pre-sales trend in 2H24 (1H24 est. +3% yoy), driven by its vast landed-residential projects.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation

There are 2 constituent changes for the IDX30, and 3 each for LQ45 and IDX80 indices to be implemented at the close 31 Jan. There are stocks with...

Brian Freitas

PT Catur Sentosa Adiprana - One-Stop Shop for Homemakers

Catur Sentosa Adiprana (CSAP IJ) has grown from a building material distribution company into the leading Indonesian retailer in building materials...

Angus Mackintosh

Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) - Building Solid Foundations

Lippo Karawaci's results made for interesting reading with underlying profitability improving in its real estate and lifestyle segments as it...

Angus Mackintosh

Ciputra Development - Expect Landed-Residential to Remain a Key Pillar for 2H24 Marketing Sales

CTRA booked resilient 2Q24 pre-sales, supporting 1H24 to form 55/53% of mgmt/our FY24F, with above-expected sales from Serpong Elaia.

BRI Danareksa Research

Ciputra Development - Expect Strong Marketing Sales Trend to Continue in 2H24

We believe CTRA will be able to maintain its strong pre-sales trend in 2H24 (1H24 est. +3% yoy), driven by its vast landed-residential projects.

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Big Impact in Some Stocks with 4 Days to Implementation