Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing, Sacra

Sacra

Private Markets, Angel and Secondary Investing

Bringing transparency to private markets so investors, founders, and employees can build on conviction. Sacra delivers deeply researched insights on the private companies shaping tomorrow's markets. By surfacing the data, context, and operator perspective that are missing from private markets today, we help secondary buyers and sellers price equity accurately and unlock liquidity for the people building these businesses.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Stripe hit $6.8B in revenue in 2025, up 33% year-over-year from $5.1B in 2024, with $1.2B in EBITDA.</li><li>Stripe reported total payment volume of $1.9T in 2025, up 34% year-over-year from $1.4T in 2024.</li><li>In February 2026, Stripe launched a new employee liquidity tender offer at a $159B valuation, backed primarily by Thrive Capital, Coatue, and Andreessen Horowitz.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Stripe hit $6.8B in revenue in 2025, up 33% year-over-year from $5.1B in 2024, with $1.2B in EBITDA.Stripe reported total payment volume of $1.9T in 2025, up 34% year-over-year from $1.4T in 2024.In February 2026, Stripe launched a new employee liquidity tender offer at a $159B valuation, backed primarily by Thrive Capital, Coatue, and Andreessen Horowitz.

<ul><li>Payward Inc., the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, agreed to acquire Reap Technologies Holdings Ltd. for up to $600 million in cash and Payward stock in May 2026.</li><li>Reap is a B2B financial infrastructure provider with a hybrid SaaS and transaction-based revenue model.</li><li>The March 2025 launch of Reap&#39;s card issuance and payment API stack shifts the company from a single-product issuer to a horizontal infrastructure provider.</li></ul>

Payward Inc., the parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, agreed to acquire Reap Technologies Holdings Ltd. for up to $600 million in cash and Payward stock in May 2026.Reap is a B2B financial infrastructure provider with a hybrid SaaS and transaction-based revenue model.The March 2025 launch of Reap&#39;s card issuance and payment API stack shifts the company from a single-product issuer to a horizontal infrastructure provider.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hashkey-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40847:1" rel="noopener">HashKey (3887 HK)</a> confirmed its IPO price at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end. Despite favourable subscription and placement levels, this suggests some concerns. </li>
<li>Digital asset-related names, BTC and ETH, have retreated by an average of 11.6% last week, implying a challenging environment for the debut. </li>
<li>It is priced at 14.5x FY26 P/S, vs. 10.5x (peer average) and only a 23% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robinhood-markets-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33532:1" rel="noopener">Robinhood Markets (HOOD US)</a>. It is only attractive at the low-end price.</li>
</ul>



HashKey (3887 HK) confirmed its IPO price at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end. Despite favourable subscription and placement levels, this suggests some concerns. 
Digital asset-related names, BTC and ETH, have retreated by an average of 11.6% last week, implying a challenging environment for the debut. 
It is priced at 14.5x FY26 P/S, vs. 10.5x (peer average) and only a 23% discount to Robinhood Markets (HOOD US). It is only attractive at the low-end price.


HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription

<ul><li>Sacra estimates that Gemini generated $68.6M in revenue in H1 2025, an 8% YoY decline, as institutional volume increased 60% to $21.5B while retail volume remained flat at $3.3B.</li><li>In September 2025, Gemini raised its proposed IPO price range to $24–$26 per share, targeting a valuation of up to $3.08 billion and aiming to raise $433 million on Nasdaq under the “GEMI” ticker.</li><li>Gemini’s stock is down 40% since its September IPO and the company is money-losing per its prospectus, framing prediction markets as a bid to expand beyond its core crypto trading amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty across federal and state regimes.</li></ul>

Sacra estimates that Gemini generated $68.6M in revenue in H1 2025, an 8% YoY decline, as institutional volume increased 60% to $21.5B while retail volume remained flat at $3.3B.In September 2025, Gemini raised its proposed IPO price range to $24–$26 per share, targeting a valuation of up to $3.08 billion and aiming to raise $433 million on Nasdaq under the “GEMI” ticker.Gemini’s stock is down 40% since its September IPO and the company is money-losing per its prospectus, framing prediction markets as a bid to expand beyond its core crypto trading amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty across federal and state regimes.

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>BillionToOne priced above range at $60.00 and opened at $100.00, closing up 81.6% at $108.94.</li>
<li>The deal was more than 20x oversubscribed, driven by strong long-only and healthcare demand</li>
<li>Backed by top-tier investors and partnerships with Johnson &amp; Johnson, BLLN’s profitability and precision platform stood out in a choppy IPO market.</li>
</ul>


BillionToOne priced above range at $60.00 and opened at $100.00, closing up 81.6% at $108.94.
The deal was more than 20x oversubscribed, driven by strong long-only and healthcare demand
Backed by top-tier investors and partnerships with Johnson &amp; Johnson, BLLN’s profitability and precision platform stood out in a choppy IPO market.


BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN): Precision Diagnostics Firm Soars 82% in One of 2025’s Best IPO Debuts

United States

Circle Internet Group, Inc. provides financial technology solutions. The Company provides a digital asset platform and network utility systems that enables businesses of all sizes to harness the power of digital currencies and public blockchains for payments, commerce, and financial applications. Circle Internet Group serves customers worldwide.

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Circle Internet Group (CRCL US)

Primer: Stripe - 18 Aug 2026

API and software suite for accepting payments and managing online financial transactions

Sacra

Primer: Reap - 10 May 2026

Financial platform providing corporate credit cards, cross-border payments, and expense management tools for businesses

Sacra

HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription

HashKey's IPO is priced at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end, signalling concerns despite strong demand. Digital assets were down 11.6% last week...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Primer: Gemini - 12 Nov 2025

Cryptocurrency exchange and custodian for individual investors and institutional clients

Sacra

BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN): Precision Diagnostics Firm Soars 82% in One of 2025’s Best IPO Debuts

BillionToOne's successful IPO debut at $108.94 reflects strong demand from investors and partnerships with industry leaders like Johnson & Johnson.

IPO Boutique

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Primer: Stripe - 18 Aug 2026

API and software suite for accepting payments and managing online financial transactions

Sacra

Primer: Reap - 10 May 2026

Financial platform providing corporate credit cards, cross-border payments, and expense management tools for businesses

Sacra

HashKey Holdings (3887 HK): A Challenging Debut Despite Oversubscription

​HashKey's IPO is priced at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end, signalling concerns despite strong demand. Digital assets were down 11.6% last week...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Primer: Gemini - 12 Nov 2025

Cryptocurrency exchange and custodian for individual investors and institutional clients

Sacra

BillionToOne, Inc. (BLLN): Precision Diagnostics Firm Soars 82% in One of 2025’s Best IPO Debuts

​BillionToOne's successful IPO debut at $108.94 reflects strong demand from investors and partnerships with industry leaders like Johnson & Johnson.

IPO Boutique

HashKey's IPO is priced at HK$6.68, 3.9% below the top end, signalling concerns despite strong demand. Digital assets were down 11.6% last week...

BillionToOne's successful IPO debut at $108.94 reflects strong demand from investors and partnerships with industry leaders like Johnson & Johnson.