Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>China takes an important step in economic and social reform</li>
<li>Japan continues to tiptoe around monetary policy and JGB issuance</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
China takes an important step in economic and social reform
Japan continues to tiptoe around monetary policy and JGB issuance


Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cisco delivered a record Q3 FY2026 with revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% YoY and exceeding the high end of its guidance.</li>
<li>Total product orders rose 35% YoY. Networking product orders grew &gt;50% YoY. Cisco raised its FY26 AI infrastructure orders guide to $9 billion, up from $5 billion, an 80% increase </li>
<li>Cisco also raised FY26 AI infrastructure revenue guidance to $4 billion, up from $3 billion. According to Robbins "Our optics business really accelerated - the Acacia business is on fire"</li>
</ul>


Cisco delivered a record Q3 FY2026 with revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% YoY and exceeding the high end of its guidance.
Total product orders rose 35% YoY. Networking product orders grew &gt;50% YoY. Cisco raised its FY26 AI infrastructure orders guide to $9 billion, up from $5 billion, an 80% increase 
Cisco also raised FY26 AI infrastructure revenue guidance to $4 billion, up from $3 billion. According to Robbins "Our optics business really accelerated - the Acacia business is on fire"


Cisco Q3 FY2026. The Acacia Business On Fire. So Is The Share Price.

<ul>
<li>Record revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% year over year; GAAP EPS of $0.85, up 37% year over year; and non-GAAP EPS of $1.06, up 10% year over year</li>
<li>Significant momentum and raised expectations for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers $5.3 billion of orders taken year to date; raising expected FY26 orders to $9 billion, up from $5 billion</li>
<li>Q4 FY 2026 Guidance: Revenue: $16.7 billion to $16.9 billion. Earnings per Share: GAAP: $0.80 to $0.85; Non-GAAP: $1.16 to $1.18</li>
</ul>


Record revenue of $15.8 billion, up 12% year over year; GAAP EPS of $0.85, up 37% year over year; and non-GAAP EPS of $1.06, up 10% year over year
Significant momentum and raised expectations for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers $5.3 billion of orders taken year to date; raising expected FY26 orders to $9 billion, up from $5 billion
Q4 FY 2026 Guidance: Revenue: $16.7 billion to $16.9 billion. Earnings per Share: GAAP: $0.80 to $0.85; Non-GAAP: $1.16 to $1.18


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...</li>
<li>...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.</li>
<li>Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.</li>
</ul>


We are upgrading our outlook to bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics have improved considerably ever since major bullish false breakdowns...
...at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs.
Everything we see suggests bulls remain in control, so we are buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMAs on SPX, QQQ, and IWM.


Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AMD &amp; NVIDIA both pocket deals to equip 500MW data centers in Saudi Arabia over the next 5 years. </li>
<li>UAE announced plans to build 5GW of data centre capacity with local champion G42 leading the charge. Microsoft and Cerebras were notable by their absence last week. </li>
<li>The Middle East deals are good news for US AI/Technology champions however the benefits will likely take years to fully accrue. </li>
</ul>


AMD &amp; NVIDIA both pocket deals to equip 500MW data centers in Saudi Arabia over the next 5 years. 
UAE announced plans to build 5GW of data centre capacity with local champion G42 leading the charge. Microsoft and Cerebras were notable by their absence last week. 
The Middle East deals are good news for US AI/Technology champions however the benefits will likely take years to fully accrue. 


US Middle East AI Splurge. A Bold Move But Also A Curious Affair

United States

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology (IT) industry and provide services associated with these products and their use. The Company provides products for transporting data, voice, and video within buildings, across campuses, and globally.

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Cisco Systems (CSCO US)

Overview #62 - Standing Room Only

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at China's recent structural reform and some parallels with...

Rikki Malik

CISCO Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

CISCO reported significant momentum and raised expectations for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers. $5.3 billion of orders taken YTD; raising...

William Keating

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight $XLP; Add to Growth and Technology $IWF...

Vermilion Research

US Middle East AI Splurge. A Bold Move But Also A Curious Affair

Last week's Middle East deals are good news for US AI/Technology champions however the benefits will likely take years to fully accrue.

William Keating

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Overview #62 - Standing Room Only

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at China's recent structural reform and some parallels with...

Rikki Malik

Cisco Q3 FY2026. The Acacia Business On Fire. So Is The Share Price.

Cisco also raised FY26 AI infrastructure revenue guidance to $4 billion, up from $3 billion. According to Robbins "Our optics business really...

William Keating

CISCO Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

CISCO reported significant momentum and raised expectations for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers. $5.3 billion of orders taken YTD; raising...

William Keating

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight

Upgrading Outlook to Bullish $SPX $QQQ $IWM $IJH; Buy the Dips Market; Downgrading Staples to Market Weight $XLP; Add to Growth and Technology $IWF...

Vermilion Research

US Middle East AI Splurge. A Bold Move But Also A Curious Affair

Last week's Middle East deals are good news for US AI/Technology champions however the benefits will likely take years to fully accrue.

William Keating