Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<table class="table table-striped"><tbody><tr><td><h2>Valemaxes May Have Delivered the Knock-Out Punch to the Capesize Market</h2></td></tr></tbody></table>It was a pleasure reading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-ship-subsidies-from-hell" target="_blank">https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-ship-subsidies-from-hell</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/36" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:36">Charles De Trenck</a>  this morning. Great insight into how wrong policy mistakes can lead to a lost decade for the industry.We belive the Capesize market outlook worsens further as three Chinese companies, Cosco Group, China Merchants Group and ICBC Financial Leasing have ordered 30 Valemaxes of 400,000 dwt each. Through these…

Valemaxes May Have Delivered the Knock-Out Punch to the Capesize MarketIt was a pleasure reading https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-ship-subsidies-from-hell by Charles De Trenck  this morning. Great insight into how wrong policy mistakes can lead to a lost decade for the industry.We belive the Capesize market outlook worsens further as three Chinese companies, Cosco Group, China Merchants Group and ICBC Financial Leasing have ordered 30 Valemaxes of 400,000 dwt each. Through these…

Valemaxes May Have Delivered the Knock-Out Punch to the Capesize Market

• Global macroeconomics: The economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the US Fed to postpone the next interest rate hike (anticipated to happen in March 2016) because of the global economic turmoil and massive sell-off in emerging markets. Bank of Japan also adopted an aggressive monetary policy as it lowered interest rates to negative 0.1% on excess funds that banks keep with the central bank in an attempt to fight deflation. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has set a lower GDP growth rate of…

• Global macroeconomics: The economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the US Fed to postpone the next interest rate hike (anticipated to happen in March 2016) because of the global economic turmoil and massive sell-off in emerging markets. Bank of Japan also adopted an aggressive monetary policy as it lowered interest rates to negative 0.1% on excess funds that banks keep with the central bank in an attempt to fight deflation. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has set a lower GDP growth rate of…

Drewry Maritime Equity Research Monthly Insight - Feb 2016

Readers of Smartkarma will remember our piece lamenting how PE was partly to be blamed for the pain in dry bulk shipping. We questioned the wisdom of PE money jumping all guns blazing into dry bulk shipping and in a classic case of the herd mentality speculatively ordered billions of dollars worth new ships.<blockquote><div class="content-remarks">I believe that the shipping industry needed this shake-out. When shipping should have gone rationally out of favour in 2010-14, the collective breed of return seekers and their greed made…</div></blockquote>

Readers of Smartkarma will remember our piece lamenting how PE was partly to be blamed for the pain in dry bulk shipping. We questioned the wisdom of PE money jumping all guns blazing into dry bulk shipping and in a classic case of the herd mentality speculatively ordered billions of dollars worth new ships.I believe that the shipping industry needed this shake-out. When shipping should have gone rationally out of favour in 2010-14, the collective breed of return seekers and their greed made…

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Is Gold breaking out?We are coming close to KISS moving average indicators suggesting some further critical breakdowns in equities relative to gold, while gold to oil in the last few trading sessions broke a record set in 1973, and in terms of volatility and “absolutes” oil has probably not been cheaper in real terms.We might not be facing the same order of problem as 2008 at this stage (with the GFC so fresh in our minds), but the price guides are herding us closer to a similar sell-off situation we last saw in 2008. Best not to trade shares and focus trading on volatility (VIX, VXX, etc.) while we keep looking for our long term accumulate opportunities that appear during panic sell-offs.  Gold remains a key portfolio counterweight. Continued evidence enclosed.

Is Gold breaking out?We are coming close to KISS moving average indicators suggesting some further critical breakdowns in equities relative to gold, while gold to oil in the last few trading sessions broke a record set in 1973, and in terms of volatility and “absolutes” oil has probably not been cheaper in real terms.We might not be facing the same order of problem as 2008 at this stage (with the GFC so fresh in our minds), but the price guides are herding us closer to a similar sell-off situation we last saw in 2008. Best not to trade shares and focus trading on volatility (VIX, VXX, etc.) while we keep looking for our long term accumulate opportunities that appear during panic sell-offs.  Gold remains a key portfolio counterweight. Continued evidence enclosed.

Are We Moving from Industrial Crisis to Financial Crisis? (2008 Being a Property to Financial Move)

Reasonable port valuation supports M&amp;A activities<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/443/original/ports5.JPG?1454570524" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5443"></figure>Note: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0x Source: Bloomberg, DMER<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/005/444/original/ports6.JPG?1454570793" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="5444"></figure> Source: Company, DMER• As the global trade growth moderates, we expect significant volatility to persist in the year ahead. Port companies with sturdy balance sheet will be favoured over growth companies. Debt servicing ratio is expected to trend lower on higher interest and faltering earnings. Therefore, we look for terminal operators with…

Reasonable port valuation supports M&amp;A activitiesNote: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0x Source: Bloomberg, DMER Source: Company, DMER• As the global trade growth moderates, we expect significant volatility to persist in the year ahead. Port companies with sturdy balance sheet will be favoured over growth companies. Debt servicing ratio is expected to trend lower on higher interest and faltering earnings. Therefore, we look for terminal operators with…

Global Port Operators - Reasonable Valuation Supports M&A Activities

China

CITIC Limited is a diversified conglomerate with five core business segments: comprehensive financial services, advanced intelligent manufacturing, advanced materials, new consumption, and new-type urbanization. Its activities include banking, securities, trust, insurance, specialty steel production, automotive parts manufacturing, heavy machinery, resource exploration, telecommunications, publishing, and real estate. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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CITIC (267 HK)

Valemaxes May Have Delivered the Knock-Out Punch to the Capesize Market

It was a pleasure reading https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-ship-subsidies-from-hell by Charles De Trenck this morning. Great insight...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Drewry Maritime Equity Research Monthly Insight - Feb 2016

• Global macroeconomics: The economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the US Fed to postpone the next interest rate hike (anticipated to happen in...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Deja Vu - They Are Throwing in the Towel

Readers of Smartkarma will remember our piece lamenting how PE was partly to be blamed for the pain in dry bulk shipping. We questioned the wisdom...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Are We Moving from Industrial Crisis to Financial Crisis? (2008 Being a Property to Financial Move)

Is Gold breaking out?We are coming close to KISS moving average indicators suggesting some further critical breakdowns in equities relative to...

Charles De Trenck

Global Port Operators - Reasonable Valuation Supports M&A Activities

Reasonable port valuation supports M&A activitiesNote: Market-weighted EV/EBITDA ticked higher from FY14 level of 14.8x to 15.0xSource:...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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