Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.</li>
<li>To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.</li>
<li>Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Mar 2025):  AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with narrow premia trades seeing Hs perform the best. </li>
<li>Warning signs are starting to flash on spreads. This week I have the biggest week of changes recommended that I have ever had. By a long ways.</li>
<li>This week threatens to be a very strange week geopolitically. Being smaller in crowded trades is probably a good thing.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion reverses again with narrow premia trades seeing Hs perform the best. 
Warning signs are starting to flash on spreads. This week I have the biggest week of changes recommended that I have ever had. By a long ways.
This week threatens to be a very strange week geopolitically. Being smaller in crowded trades is probably a good thing.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening

<ul>
<li>AH Premia continue to fall with the widest spreads narrowing more than the narrowest spreads, and liquid pairs seeing more narrowing than illiquid pairs.</li>
<li>Average AH Premia are at a new 5yr low (longer, actually, but charts below only show 5yrs). The big warning sign? Rolling 52wk performance of A vs H in pairs.</li>
<li>Momentum is going to work until it does not. A new Trump EO this weekend seems to have potential to lead to more restrictions on US ownership of Chinese stocks.</li>
</ul>


AH Premia continue to fall with the widest spreads narrowing more than the narrowest spreads, and liquid pairs seeing more narrowing than illiquid pairs.
Average AH Premia are at a new 5yr low (longer, actually, but charts below only show 5yrs). The big warning sign? Rolling 52wk performance of A vs H in pairs.
Momentum is going to work until it does not. A new Trump EO this weekend seems to have potential to lead to more restrictions on US ownership of Chinese stocks.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025):  AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Episode number eight of the Barbarians podcast on Valentine's Day, February 14, 2025, featuring guest Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset Management</li><li>Kevin's background includes experience in trading fixed income markets and digital assets, providing valuable insights on correlations between traditional macroeconomics and digital assets</li><li>Discussion on recent market events such as blowout jobs numbers and higher than expected CPI, signaling a potential turning point in the markets and a shift in investor sentiment</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode number eight of the Barbarians podcast on Valentine's Day, February 14, 2025, featuring guest Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset ManagementKevin's background includes experience in trading fixed income markets and digital assets, providing valuable insights on correlations between traditional macroeconomics and digital assetsDiscussion on recent market events such as blowout jobs numbers and higher than expected CPI, signaling a potential turning point in the markets and a shift in investor sentimentThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Kevin Jiang - The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Sunny Optical Technology Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HK Alpha Portfolio returned -1.29% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 0.34%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 7.93% to 9.64% since its inception on 10/01/24.  </li>
<li> About 75% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy or Materials. </li>
<li>At month-end we sold <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cinda-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:372:1" rel="noopener">China Cinda Asset Management (1359 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20590:1" rel="noopener">Citic Ltd (267 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-galaxy-securities-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:165:1" rel="noopener">China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> .  </li>
</ul>


HK Alpha Portfolio returned -1.29% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 0.34%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 7.93% to 9.64% since its inception on 10/01/24.  
 About 75% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy or Materials.  
At month-end we sold China Cinda Asset Management (1359 HK) , Citic Ltd (267 HK) , China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) and GDS Holdings (9698 HK) .  


China

CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, investment banking, asset management, and investment consulting services.

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Citic Securities (H) (6030 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia still falling at a slower pace. Hs outperform As despite HK underperforming A-share blue chips. Lots of AH premia <20%. Vol dropping...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 28 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Expect Widening

AH Premia are again at a 5yr low. Liquid Hs outperform illiquids with wider spreads. Trades are getting crowded. Biggest slew of recommendations in...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 21 Feb 2025): AH Premia Continue to Fall; Wider Spreads Narrow Most

AH Premia are at a new 5yr low. AH rolling performance is ridiculously bad. A new Trump Executive Order over the weekend suggests VIEs may be in...

Travis Lundy

Kevin Jiang - The Biggest Trade of Our Lifetime & The Next Financial Shift | The New Barbarians #008

On the Valentine's Day episode of Barbarians podcast, Kevin Jang, CIO of Virgo Digital Asset Management, discusses digital assets and their...

William Mann

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (January 2025)

Hong Kong Alpha portfolio lost 1.29% in January and outperformed its benchmark. We sold GDS, Citic, Cinda and China Galaxy Securities. We added...

David Mudd

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