Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024</li>
<li>The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. </li>
<li>Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.</li>
</ul>


Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024
The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. 
Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.


US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

<ul>
<li>The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole</li>
<li>Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically</li>
<li>Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR</li>
</ul>


The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole
Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically
Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR


US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

<ul>
<li>Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits</li>
<li>The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits</li>
<li>Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve</li>
</ul>


Weekly data for US banks shows good loan acceleration continuing in February, with less LLR, less large time deposits
The profit outlook for US banks is positive during 1Q25 given trends in high frequency data on loans, loan loss reserves, jumbo time deposits
Banks are seeing sharply higher growth rates in residential mortgage loans, where flow-through to economy is typically +ve


US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

<ul><li>Brokers' top stock picks include CLAR, CICT, CNMC Goldmine, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life REIT, FLCT, and ST Engineering.</li><li>Analysts recommend buying Digital Core REIT due to increased rents and leasing strength, while optimistic about Oiltek's new orders for FY2025.</li><li>CGSI optimistic about Seatrium with new MOU for second bp FPU; OCBC boosts fair value. Citi downgrades SGX to 'sell'. PhillipCapital maintains 'accumulate' rating on BRC Asia, raises TP to $3.15. Maybank Securities maintains 'buy' rating on SingPost. DBS upgrades Elite UK REIT to 'buy'.</li></ul>

Brokers' top stock picks include CLAR, CICT, CNMC Goldmine, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life REIT, FLCT, and ST Engineering.Analysts recommend buying Digital Core REIT due to increased rents and leasing strength, while optimistic about Oiltek's new orders for FY2025.CGSI optimistic about Seatrium with new MOU for second bp FPU; OCBC boosts fair value. Citi downgrades SGX to 'sell'. PhillipCapital maintains 'accumulate' rating on BRC Asia, raises TP to $3.15. Maybank Securities maintains 'buy' rating on SingPost. DBS upgrades Elite UK REIT to 'buy'.

Singapore Market Roundup (14-Feb-2025): Brokers' top picks: CLAR, CICT, CNMC, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life, FLCT, ST Engineering.

<ul><li>Analysts are bullish on FEHT due to strong second half fiscal year 2024 hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) and merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) prospects. </li><li>DBS is cautious about the long-term market gains from China's AI breakthrough, expressing skepticism about its potential impact on boosting the market. </li><li>CGSI has upgraded ISDN to 'add' and raised their target price to 35 cents, citing an industrial automation-led recovery as the reason for the upgrade.</li></ul>

Analysts are bullish on FEHT due to strong second half fiscal year 2024 hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) and merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) prospects. DBS is cautious about the long-term market gains from China's AI breakthrough, expressing skepticism about its potential impact on boosting the market. CGSI has upgraded ISDN to 'add' and raised their target price to 35 cents, citing an industrial automation-led recovery as the reason for the upgrade.

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Feb-2025): FEHT favored for strong RevPAR and M&A in 2HFY2024.

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

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Citigroup Inc (C US)

US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

US banks weekly HFD on loans is positive, with acceleration to highest rates of growth since at least early FY24. Large time deposits and loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Loan Acceleration Into February, Less LLR, Large Time Deposits: +ve Profit Outlook

US banks are seeing accelerating loan growth with lower loan loss reserves and less large time deposits, in HFD during Jan and Feb. The...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Market Roundup (14-Feb-2025): Brokers' top picks: CLAR, CICT, CNMC, KORE, Wilmar, Parkway Life, FLCT, ST Engineering.

Analysts recommend buying Digital Core REIT and are optimistic about Oiltek and Seatrium's new orders, while Citi downgrades SGX, PhillipCapital...

Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup (13-Feb-2025): FEHT favored for strong RevPAR and M&A in 2HFY2024.

FEHT is favored by analysts for strong hotel RevPAR, DBS is skeptical of China's AI breakthrough, and CGSI upgrades ISDN on industrial automation...

Singapore Market Roundup

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