Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weekly HFD for large US banks are turning positive in several areas, making the mosaic even stronger than if just as single series were improving</li>
<li>Loan growth for the largest US banks is now positive even if low, but moving from a negative rate of growth, the trajectory is a steady improvement</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves growth is lowering, suggesting bettering LGD and PD while large time deposit growth is down substantially, improving liquidity risk (which can impact credit)</li>
</ul>


Weekly HFD for large US banks are turning positive in several areas, making the mosaic even stronger than if just as single series were improving
Loan growth for the largest US banks is now positive even if low, but moving from a negative rate of growth, the trajectory is a steady improvement
Loan loss reserves growth is lowering, suggesting bettering LGD and PD while large time deposit growth is down substantially, improving liquidity risk (which can impact credit)


US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BP’s revenue is expected to rise 7% QoQ but fall 5% YoY while EPS is anticipated to drop 7% QoQ and 19% YoY.</li>
<li>Management projected lower upstream production for Q3 compared to Q2, including in high-margin regions. However, retail fuel sales are expected to increase on stronger seasonal demand.</li>
<li>In 2023, BP allocated over 30% of its total expenditure to charging stations, biofuels, hydrogen fuels, and fuelling stations, a significant rise from just 3% in 2019.</li>
</ul>


BP’s revenue is expected to rise 7% QoQ but fall 5% YoY while EPS is anticipated to drop 7% QoQ and 19% YoY.
Management projected lower upstream production for Q3 compared to Q2, including in high-margin regions. However, retail fuel sales are expected to increase on stronger seasonal demand.
In 2023, BP allocated over 30% of its total expenditure to charging stations, biofuels, hydrogen fuels, and fuelling stations, a significant rise from just 3% in 2019.


[Earnings Preview] BP Faces Prolonged Margin Pressure in Q3 2024 Amid Lower Oil Prices

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 27/Sep, US crude inventories rose by 3.9m barrels, contrasting expectations of a 1.5m barrel drawdown. Gasoline stockpiles also unexpectedly grew.
US natural gas inventories rose 55 Bcf for the week ending 27/Sep, lower than analyst expectations of a 59 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger have all experienced target price downgrades, while Exxon Mobil received an upward revision to its target price. Notably, Goldman Sachs downgraded Occidental to Neutral.


[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

International Business Machines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Liquid cooling solutions for AI servers are evolving rapidly to provide more efficient and effective cooling for high-performance computing needs.</li><li>L&amp;T Semicon in India plans to mass produce its first chip within the next two years, showing growth and innovation in the semiconductor industry.</li><li>Taiwan is focusing on modular, intelligent, and collaborative robotics solutions for niche markets, with a shift away from humanoids in its approach to robotics.</li></ul>

Liquid cooling solutions for AI servers are evolving rapidly to provide more efficient and effective cooling for high-performance computing needs.L&amp;T Semicon in India plans to mass produce its first chip within the next two years, showing growth and innovation in the semiconductor industry.Taiwan is focusing on modular, intelligent, and collaborative robotics solutions for niche markets, with a shift away from humanoids in its approach to robotics.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Oct-2024): AI server liquid cooling status: efficient or not?

<ul>
<li>While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed</li>
<li>With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%</li>
<li>When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction</li>
</ul>


While maybe deflation may not be a concern right now, we believe that high real rates will be a consideration of the Fed
With average lending rates at 8.5% in August and the All Urban CPI Index recording 2.5% inflation in the August, real lending rates are high at 5.97%
When figures were similar, it was July/August 2007 - rarely has there been a time in recent years, where real loan rates have been so high, without Fed reaction


Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

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Citigroup Inc (C US)

US Banks - Strong Weekly Balance Sheet Figures for Loans, Loan Loss Reserves and Time Deposits

The largest US banks by assets are showing HFD that is increasingly positive for loan growth, loan loss reserves growth and large time deposits...

Daniel Tabbush

[Earnings Preview] BP Faces Prolonged Margin Pressure in Q3 2024 Amid Lower Oil Prices

BP expects a slight QoQ decline in upstream production, including high-margin regions in Q3, but anticipates stronger retail sales from seasonal...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/40] WTI Prices Surge as Iran-Israel Tensions Rise; Nat-Gas Rallies on Output Cuts

WTI rose amid heightened supply concerns after Iran's missile attacks on Israel, yet long-term demand worries persist. US nat-gas reached a 16-week...

Mint Finance

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Oct-2024): AI server liquid cooling status: efficient or not?

Liquid cooling solutions for AI servers are evolving rapidly, L&T Semicon plans mass production of first chip, Win Win Precision excels in solar...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Fed Rate Cut - Real Lending Rates at 5.97% Near Where Peaking In August 2007

Real rates are too high in the US and they have been rising sharply. This is likely where the the Fed will need to focus when considering rate...

Daniel Tabbush

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