Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We explore Citibank’s upcoming division of CitiBanamex and the forthcoming legacy Banamex IPO; given the market’s premium PBV ratios, this should support the Banamex IPO valuation</li>
<li>Sector trends to January show continued loan growth, but headwinds are building; rising funding costs are eroding credit spreads and credit costs are worsening, even though NPL coverage is healthy</li>
<li>BanBajio generates an ROE of 28%+, whilst highly capitalized and on more modest multiples than Banorte; we stay cautious on Banorte, due to the growing risks to returns and valuation</li>
</ul>


We explore Citibank’s upcoming division of CitiBanamex and the forthcoming legacy Banamex IPO; given the market’s premium PBV ratios, this should support the Banamex IPO valuation
Sector trends to January show continued loan growth, but headwinds are building; rising funding costs are eroding credit spreads and credit costs are worsening, even though NPL coverage is healthy
BanBajio generates an ROE of 28%+, whilst highly capitalized and on more modest multiples than Banorte; we stay cautious on Banorte, due to the growing risks to returns and valuation


Banamex Update and Mexican Banks’ January Data – First Look at Early 1Q 2024 Trends

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks</li>
<li>Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs</li>
</ul>


US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income
C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks
Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs


US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

<ul>
<li>Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data</li>
<li>Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago</li>
<li>Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure</li>
</ul>


Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data
Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago
Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure


US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul>
<li>US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the median credit risk faced by all US- banks.</li>
<li>The downward trend in the Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) for G-SIBs was largely driven by improvements in their equity performance, which has improved their financial position comparative to its peers.</li>
<li>As can be seen from Chart 1, although the G-SIB CCCI is trending lower since late September-2023, their aggregate credit profile is still close to the upper quartile credit risk of the US banking industry.</li>
</ul>


US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the median credit risk faced by all US- banks.
The downward trend in the Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) for G-SIBs was largely driven by improvements in their equity performance, which has improved their financial position comparative to its peers.
As can be seen from Chart 1, although the G-SIB CCCI is trending lower since late September-2023, their aggregate credit profile is still close to the upper quartile credit risk of the US banking industry.


US G-SIBs Recover in Q4 2023, Facing Cloudy Outlook for 2024

<ul>
<li>CMA shows how the profile of net interest income can weaken considerably with rising funding costs and risk aversion</li>
<li>Criticized assets are rising substantially and even so, the bank has not taken a higher provision expense in the quarter - this can be yet to come</li>
<li>CRE loans are growing faster than other loan, at a time when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-york-community-bancorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1193:1" rel="noopener">New York Community Bank (NYCB US)</a> shows the current risks on these loans</li>
</ul>


CMA shows how the profile of net interest income can weaken considerably with rising funding costs and risk aversion
Criticized assets are rising substantially and even so, the bank has not taken a higher provision expense in the quarter - this can be yet to come
CRE loans are growing faster than other loan, at a time when New York Community Bank (NYCB US) shows the current risks on these loans


CMA - Net Interest Income -21% with Criticized Assets +53% and CRE Loans Rising 32% YoY

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

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Citigroup Inc (C US)

Banamex Update and Mexican Banks’ January Data – First Look at Early 1Q 2024 Trends

Sector trends show headwinds credit costs and maybe opex. BanBajio's strong ROE, high capital ratio and modest valuations make it a more attractive...

Victor Galliano

US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Looking at HFD of US large banks we see loan growth suddenly turning negative, with C&I growth the most negative. Large time deposit growth 59% YoY...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

High frequency data shows US banks with very weak C&I loans and total loans. Large time deposit growth remains high, only adding to core income...

Daniel Tabbush

US G-SIBs Recover in Q4 2023, Facing Cloudy Outlook for 2024

US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the...

Criat

CMA - Net Interest Income -21% with Criticized Assets +53% and CRE Loans Rising 32% YoY

CMA is showing some worrying figures in the wake of NYCB disclosures. CMA's net interest income is in sharp contraction, CRE loans rising fast and...

Daniel Tabbush

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