Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<blockquote><a href="https://twitter.com/TimSweeneyEpic/status/1432647669864878083?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1432647669864878083%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&amp;ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pcgamer.com%2Fsouth-korea-passes-law-with-major-implications-for-apple-vs-epic%2F" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Korea</a> is first in open platforms! Korea has rejected digital commerce monopolies and recognized open platforms as a right. This marks a major milestone in the 45-year history of personal computing. It began in Cupertino, but the forefront today is in Seoul. (Tim Sweeney - Founder of Epic Games)</blockquote>In a landmark case (an amendment of the Telecommunications Business Act), the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-apple-hit-in-south-korea-by-worlds-first-law-ending-their-dominance-over-app-store-payments-11630403335" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Korean government</a> announced on 31 August that Google and Apple will need to open their app stores to alternative payment systems in South Korea. This change in regulation is likely to negatively impact Google and Apple's lucrative commissions on digital sales.A new bill was passed by the Korean National Assembly on 31 August which will significantly reduce Google and Apple's dominance of digital sales on their app platforms. The final step is for President Moon to sign this bill but it is almost a near certainty that he will sign this bill. The following are the major companies/sectors that could benefit from the change in law:<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a></li>
<li>Korean Telcos</li>
<li>Korean Game Companies</li>
<li>Korean Entertainment/Music/Movies/Drama Companies </li>
</ul>

Korea is first in open platforms! Korea has rejected digital commerce monopolies and recognized open platforms as a right. This marks a major milestone in the 45-year history of personal computing. It began in Cupertino, but the forefront today is in Seoul. (Tim Sweeney - Founder of Epic Games)In a landmark case (an amendment of the Telecommunications Business Act), the Korean government announced on 31 August that Google and Apple will need to open their app stores to alternative payment systems in South Korea. This change in regulation is likely to negatively impact Google and Apple's lucrative commissions on digital sales.A new bill was passed by the Korean National Assembly on 31 August which will significantly reduce Google and Apple's dominance of digital sales on their app platforms. The final step is for President Moon to sign this bill but it is almost a near certainty that he will sign this bill. The following are the major companies/sectors that could benefit from the change in law:
Naver Corp (035420 KS)
Kakao Corp (035720 KS)
Korean Telcos
Korean Game Companies
Korean Entertainment/Music/Movies/Drama Companies 


Korean Government Forces Google & Apple To Open Their App Stores to Alternative Payments

Event-Driven

On 11 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> announced that its affiliate Kakao Entertainment Corp was acquiring US based Tapas and Radish for $510 million and $440 million, respectively. Kakao Entertainment is one of the largest providers of webtoons in Korea and Japan. Tapas provides an online comic app. Radish is a storytelling fiction app. Radish previously received Series A funding from investors including SoftBank Group's venture arm and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>.The acquisition of Tapas and Radish is likely to accelerate the IPO of Kakao Entertainment which could occur in 2022. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/skoreas-kakao-entertainment-acquire-serial-fiction-app-radish-440-mln-2021-05-11/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kakao Entertainment</a> plans to capitalize on these acquisitions to further expand in the North American market. These purchases of US content companies follow recent acquisitions of US based Ithaca Holdings by HYBE (Big Hit Entertainment) for $1.05 billion and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a>'s acquisition of Canada based Wattpad for $600 million. Despite these acquisitions, there are some concerns about Kakao Entertainment potentially overpaying for them. While we believe that these acquisitions are likely to have long-term positive impact on Kakao Entertainment and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a>, we are concerned about the valuations of Kakao Corp which is currently trading at 66x P/E (2021), close to the high end of the historical valuation multiples in the past five years.

On 11 May, Kakao Corp (035720 KS) announced that its affiliate Kakao Entertainment Corp was acquiring US based Tapas and Radish for $510 million and $440 million, respectively. Kakao Entertainment is one of the largest providers of webtoons in Korea and Japan. Tapas provides an online comic app. Radish is a storytelling fiction app. Radish previously received Series A funding from investors including SoftBank Group's venture arm and Kakao Corp (035720 KS).The acquisition of Tapas and Radish is likely to accelerate the IPO of Kakao Entertainment which could occur in 2022. Kakao Entertainment plans to capitalize on these acquisitions to further expand in the North American market. These purchases of US content companies follow recent acquisitions of US based Ithaca Holdings by HYBE (Big Hit Entertainment) for $1.05 billion and Naver Corp (035420 KS)'s acquisition of Canada based Wattpad for $600 million. Despite these acquisitions, there are some concerns about Kakao Entertainment potentially overpaying for them. While we believe that these acquisitions are likely to have long-term positive impact on Kakao Entertainment and Kakao Corp (035720 KS), we are concerned about the valuations of Kakao Corp which is currently trading at 66x P/E (2021), close to the high end of the historical valuation multiples in the past five years.  

Kakao Entertainment - Buys US Based Tapas & Radish to Get Ready for an IPO in 2022

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">
The Asian OTT sector is one of the most attractive industries to be in the next five years. In this report, we highlight numerous major potential winners and discuss some of the most important factors impacting the OTT sector in Asia. There are three crucial trends that will impact the Asian OTT sector:
<ul>
<li>A surging growth of 5G services</li>
<li>Increased consolidations and partnerships especially among the global OTTs and local content providers/OTTs</li>
<li>Greater spending on higher quality contents in efforts to improve consumer retention</li>
</ul>
The main purpose of this report is as follows:
<ul>
<li>Identify the major players (both public &amp; private) in the OTT sector in Asia</li>
<li>Specify the key trends driving the Asian OTT industry</li>
<li>Provide an initial overview of the key companies in the Asian OTT industry</li>
</ul>
</div>


The Asian OTT sector is one of the most attractive industries to be in the next five years. In this report, we highlight numerous major potential winners and discuss some of the most important factors impacting the OTT sector in Asia. There are three crucial trends that will impact the Asian OTT sector:

A surging growth of 5G services
Increased consolidations and partnerships especially among the global OTTs and local content providers/OTTs
Greater spending on higher quality contents in efforts to improve consumer retention

The main purpose of this report is as follows:

Identify the major players (both public &amp; private) in the OTT sector in Asia
Specify the key trends driving the Asian OTT industry
Provide an initial overview of the key companies in the Asian OTT industry



<div class="content-highlight">It was announced on 25 January that Kakao Page and Kakao M held a board meeting to decide on a merger and launch a newco called Kakao Entertainment. The two companies plan to complete the merger on 1 March after the final approval at the shareholders' meeting on 26 January. The merger ratio is calculated as 1 (Kakao Page) to 1.31 (Kakao M).</div>

It was announced on 25 January that Kakao Page and Kakao M held a board meeting to decide on a merger and launch a newco called Kakao Entertainment. The two companies plan to complete the merger on 1 March after the final approval at the shareholders' meeting on 26 January. The merger ratio is calculated as 1 (Kakao Page) to 1.31 (Kakao M).

The Merger of Kakao Page & Kakao M to Create Kakao Entertainment

Equity Bottom-Up

Although NCsoft's stock price  has performed well in the past year, we believe the stock is well poised to outperform the market again this year. NCsoft, similar to many other leading global game companies, have benefited from COVID-19 as millions of people in Korea and around the world have been forced to various forms of lockdown and spend more time at home.Currently, millions of people in countries such as are starting to take new vaccines for COVID-19. However, there are new mutated COVID-19 strains that have found to be 50%+ more contagious than the existing COVID-19 virus. These events suggest that the first half of 2021 will continue to be quite restrictive in major governments around the world including South Korea and U.K. continuing to impose various kinds of lockdowns and social distancing measures which mean that people in these countries will continue to spend a lot of time at home. This would continue to benefit leading global game companies such as NCsoft. We believe NCsoft has numerous, notable investment merits.<ul>
<li>First, it has an outstanding line-up of new games in different geographies around the world in 2021.</li>
<li>Second, its ROE is improving materially.</li>
<li>Third, NCsoft's stock price is trading at a discount to historical valuations and there could be further valuation multiples re-rating on this stock in the coming months.</li>
<li>Fourth, China has started to approve new Korean games again.</li>
<li>Fifth, NCsoft and CJ ENM have agreed to form a new JV to roll out new digital contents aimed at the global market.</li>
</ul>

Although NCsoft's stock price  has performed well in the past year, we believe the stock is well poised to outperform the market again this year. NCsoft, similar to many other leading global game companies, have benefited from COVID-19 as millions of people in Korea and around the world have been forced to various forms of lockdown and spend more time at home.Currently, millions of people in countries such as are starting to take new vaccines for COVID-19. However, there are new mutated COVID-19 strains that have found to be 50%+ more contagious than the existing COVID-19 virus. These events suggest that the first half of 2021 will continue to be quite restrictive in major governments around the world including South Korea and U.K. continuing to impose various kinds of lockdowns and social distancing measures which mean that people in these countries will continue to spend a lot of time at home. This would continue to benefit leading global game companies such as NCsoft. We believe NCsoft has numerous, notable investment merits.
First, it has an outstanding line-up of new games in different geographies around the world in 2021.
Second, its ROE is improving materially.
Third, NCsoft's stock price is trading at a discount to historical valuations and there could be further valuation multiples re-rating on this stock in the coming months.
Fourth, China has started to approve new Korean games again.
Fifth, NCsoft and CJ ENM have agreed to form a new JV to roll out new digital contents aimed at the global market.


NCsoft: Key Catalysts and Valuation Sensitivity Analysis

South Korea

CJ ENM, Ltd. retails clothes, kitchen utensils, home appliances, and jewelry.  The Company sells its merchandise through TV home shopping channels, catalogs, and the Internet shopping mall.  CJ ENM operates cable television business through a subsidiary.

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CJ ENM (035760 KS)

Korean Government Forces Google & Apple To Open Their App Stores to Alternative Payments

In a landmark case, the Korean government announced on 31 August that Google and Apple will need to open their app stores to alternative payment...

Douglas Kim

Kakao Entertainment - Buys US Based Tapas & Radish to Get Ready for an IPO in 2022

On 11 May, Kakao Corp (035720 KS) announced that its affiliate Kakao Entertainment Corp was acquiring US based Tapas and Radish for $510 million...

Douglas Kim

Asian OTT Wars

The Asian OTT sector is one of the most attractive industries to be in the next five years. In this Smartkarma Original, we discuss some of the...

Douglas Kim

The Merger of Kakao Page & Kakao M to Create Kakao Entertainment

On 25 January, Kakao Page and Kakao M announced that they held a board meeting to decide on a merger and launch Kakao Entertainment, which would be...

Douglas Kim

NCsoft: Key Catalysts and Valuation Sensitivity Analysis

We believe NCsoft has numerous, notable investment merits, including an outstanding line-up of new games in different geographies around the world...

Douglas Kim

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