Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Whilst Q4's list posted strong price performance it was a case that a rising tide floated most boats. As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. In Q1, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.03 times, a significant decrease on the 1.52 in Q4. This deterioration needs to be monitored since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and their limited visibility of any bottoming. 25 stocks appear in our Q1 2021 screen, versus 15 in Q4 2020.</p>

Whilst Q4's list posted strong price performance it was a case that a rising tide floated most boats. As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. In Q1, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.03 times, a significant decrease on the 1.52 in Q4. This deterioration needs to be monitored since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and their limited visibility of any bottoming. 25 stocks appear in our Q1 2021 screen, versus 15 in Q4 2020.

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

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<p>The goal of this new product is to monitor the progress of upcoming and recently-completed IPOs and deals in the Asian logistics, transportation and travel space. We'll also look at deals in related segments, including eCommerce fulfillment, ride-hailing, online food delivery, and warehousing.</p>
<p>Each issue will feature news and commentary on planned IPOs and other major deals in the logistics space, plus an update on the performance of recent IPOs and deals. We'll also profile a prominent private Asian company in the sector that could soon seek a public listing.  </p>
<p>In this issue we review planned listings from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dida-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29701:1" rel="noopener">Dida (DIDA HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zim-integrated-shipping-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31124:1" rel="noopener">ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)</a>, check in on the share performance of four recent logistics-related IPOs, and introduce private Hive-Box Holdings (HBH), the world's largest operator of smart lockers. </p>




The goal of this new product is to monitor the progress of upcoming and recently-completed IPOs and deals in the Asian logistics, transportation and travel space. We'll also look at deals in related segments, including eCommerce fulfillment, ride-hailing, online food delivery, and warehousing.
Each issue will feature news and commentary on planned IPOs and other major deals in the logistics space, plus an update on the performance of recent IPOs and deals. We'll also profile a prominent private Asian company in the sector that could soon seek a public listing.  
In this issue we review planned listings from Dida (DIDA HK) and ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US), check in on the share performance of four recent logistics-related IPOs, and introduce private Hive-Box Holdings (HBH), the world's largest operator of smart lockers. 

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Logistics Capital Markets Monitor | IPOs | M&A | Pre-IPO Profile: Hive-Box Holdings

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>It's been a <em>long</em> time since we looked at and wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cj-korea-express-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11557:1" rel="noopener">CJ Logistics (000120 KS)</a>. In a note we published here way back in June 2017, we said it was highly unlikely CJ Logistics would see the margin improvement needed to hit analysts' consensus forecast of 6,400 won per share in 2018.</p>
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<p>Specifically, we doubted that higher margins would be driven by growth of the company's <em>Global</em> segment, which includes CJ's international freight forwarding business and several overseas logistics units CJ had acquired in an effort to create a "Pan-Asian Logistics Network".</p>
<p>Since we last wrote about the company, CJ Logistics has apparently abandoned its push to become a major player in logistics <em>outside</em> of Korea, focusing instead on a disparate list of domestic initiatives. Overall profitability remains similar to depressed levels from 3-4 years ago. </p>
<p>Since we last tracked them, CJ Logistics' shares haven't performed well: they're down about 24% compared to their 5-year high reached in mid-2016, though like many stocks they have risen from depressed Q120 levels. Unless CJ Logistics can articulate a winning long-term strategy, and then show consistent progress towards executing it successfully, we would avoid the shares. </p>



It's been a long time since we looked at and wrote about CJ Logistics (000120 KS). In a note we published here way back in June 2017, we said it was highly unlikely CJ Logistics would see the margin improvement needed to hit analysts' consensus forecast of 6,400 won per share in 2018.

Specifically, we doubted that higher margins would be driven by growth of the company's Global segment, which includes CJ's international freight forwarding business and several overseas logistics units CJ had acquired in an effort to create a "Pan-Asian Logistics Network".
Since we last wrote about the company, CJ Logistics has apparently abandoned its push to become a major player in logistics outside of Korea, focusing instead on a disparate list of domestic initiatives. Overall profitability remains similar to depressed levels from 3-4 years ago. 
Since we last tracked them, CJ Logistics' shares haven't performed well: they're down about 24% compared to their 5-year high reached in mid-2016, though like many stocks they have risen from depressed Q120 levels. Unless CJ Logistics can articulate a winning long-term strategy, and then show consistent progress towards executing it successfully, we would avoid the shares. 

CJ Logistics: Still Lacking Focus, Still Unlikely to Reach 6,000+ EPS Any Time Soon

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<p>In this insight, we highlight 26 Korean companies that are/may be seeking to find new owners through M&amp;As in 2021. Key sectors of M&amp;A in Korea in 2021 include consumer and industrial. We also provide a review of our M&amp;A research in 2020. We wrote 29 reports about the M&amp;As in 2020. The M&amp;A market in Korea is estimated to be about 35 trillion won in 2020, down 8% YoY. The local media have mentioned that the M&amp;A market in Korea could be nearly <a href="https://finance.naver.com/news/news_read.nhn?article_id=0004711778&amp;office_id=009&amp;mode=LSS2D&amp;type=0&amp;section_id=101&amp;section_id2=258&amp;section_id3=&amp;date=20201207&amp;page=3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">45 trillion won</a> in 2021, up 29% YoY, which would surpass the all-time high of 38 trillion won in 2019.  </p>

In this insight, we highlight 26 Korean companies that are/may be seeking to find new owners through M&amp;As in 2021. Key sectors of M&amp;A in Korea in 2021 include consumer and industrial. We also provide a review of our M&amp;A research in 2020. We wrote 29 reports about the M&amp;As in 2020. The M&amp;A market in Korea is estimated to be about 35 trillion won in 2020, down 8% YoY. The local media have mentioned that the M&amp;A market in Korea could be nearly 45 trillion won in 2021, up 29% YoY, which would surpass the all-time high of 38 trillion won in 2019.  

Review of Our M&A Research in 2020 & Korea M&A Market Outlook in 2021: What’s For Sale?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Kerry Express Thailand / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> is the leading express delivery company in Thailand. It is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> (63.0% shareholder) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> (23.0% shareholder).</p></div><div><p>Kerry Express has launched its IPO at a price range of THB25.00-28.00 per share to raise as much as THB8.4 billion ($278 million). Subscription will take place between 8-9 and 14 December for retail investors, and 16-18 December for institutional investors. The final price is expected to be announced on 15 December. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kerry-express-ipo-initiation-a-recovery-play" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45446" rel="noopener">Kerry Express IPO Initiation: A Recovery Play?</a>, we stated that while the 3Q20 results are not ideal, we think that revenue decline is a short-term market-specific issue, and Kerry Express remains well-placed to ride an eventual recovery in Thai consumer confidence. Overall, we think that a reasonable P/E valuation, a market-leading business and solid cornerstone support makes Kerry Express tempting at the proposed pricing range. </p></div></div></div>

Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) is the leading express delivery company in Thailand. It is backed by Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) (63.0% shareholder) and VGI PCL (VGI TB) (23.0% shareholder).Kerry Express has launched its IPO at a price range of THB25.00-28.00 per share to raise as much as THB8.4 billion ($278 million). Subscription will take place between 8-9 and 14 December for retail investors, and 16-18 December for institutional investors. The final price is expected to be announced on 15 December. In Kerry Express IPO Initiation: A Recovery Play?, we stated that while the 3Q20 results are not ideal, we think that revenue decline is a short-term market-specific issue, and Kerry Express remains well-placed to ride an eventual recovery in Thai consumer confidence. Overall, we think that a reasonable P/E valuation, a market-leading business and solid cornerstone support makes Kerry Express tempting at the proposed pricing range. 

South Korea

CJ Logistics Corporation provides logistics services. The Company provides land transportation, maritime transportation, harbor unloading, cargo storage, international logistics processing, and other services. CJ Logistics also provides internet home shopping services. CJ Logistics serves customers worldwide.

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CJ Logistics (000120 KS)

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. 25 stocks...

David Lepper

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Logistics Capital Markets Monitor | IPOs | M&A | Pre-IPO Profile: Hive-Box Holdings

In this week's Logistics Capital Markets Monitor: updates on ZIM and DiDa ChuXing IPOs, performance of recent IPOs in the Logistics space, and a...

Tracking Traffic

CJ Logistics: Still Lacking Focus, Still Unlikely to Reach 6,000+ EPS Any Time Soon

We check in on CJ Logistics, which appears to have pivoted away from its much-hyped international expansion plan from a few years ago. What hasn't...

Tracking Traffic

Review of Our M&A Research in 2020 & Korea M&A Market Outlook in 2021: What’s For Sale?

In this insight, we highlight 26 Korean companies that are/may be seeking to find new owners through M&As in 2021. We also provide a review of our...

Douglas Kim

Kerry Express IPO: Valuation Insights

Kerry Express has launched its IPO at a price range of THB25.00-28.00 per share to raise as much as THB8.4 billion ($278 million). Overall, we...

Arun George

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