Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inviting a PRC investor to join the bidding consortium as a significant member, as opposed to a majority player, appears the panacea to get this port deal over the line. </li>
<li>Although <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> stopped short of naming the investor, China’s state-owned shipping conglomerate Cosco is widely expected/rumoured to join BlackRock and Swiss-Italian shipping company MSC.</li>
<li>
Participation through effective intervention? Cosco's involvement should all-but seal Chinese regulatory approvals. The green light from the US administration, the EU, and other jurisdictions, will pivot off how much involvement. </li>
</ul>


Inviting a PRC investor to join the bidding consortium as a significant member, as opposed to a majority player, appears the panacea to get this port deal over the line. 
Although CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) stopped short of naming the investor, China’s state-owned shipping conglomerate Cosco is widely expected/rumoured to join BlackRock and Swiss-Italian shipping company MSC.

Participation through effective intervention? Cosco's involvement should all-but seal Chinese regulatory approvals. The green light from the US administration, the EU, and other jurisdictions, will pivot off how much involvement. 


CKH (1 HK): Intervention Seeds Participation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>'s delicate dance continues as it juggles U.S and Beijing politics; and its fiduciary duty to shareholders, as the Blackrock exclusivity long stop date looms.</li>
<li>In a double dose of StubWorld this week, preceding my comments on CKH - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)'s delicate dance continues as it juggles U.S and Beijing politics; and its fiduciary duty to shareholders, as the Blackrock exclusivity long stop date looms.
In a double dose of StubWorld this week, preceding my comments on CKH - and CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) - Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is elevated vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> as the accretion trade unfolds.</li>
<li>As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, as opposed to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.</li>
<li>Expect near-term weakness in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.</li>
</ul>



Prosus NV (PRX NA) is elevated vs. Tencent (700 HK) as the accretion trade unfolds.
As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), as opposed to Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.
Expect near-term weakness in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

<ul>
<li>Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks. </li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a> spectacularly failed back in May.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dickson-concepts-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5052:1" rel="noopener">Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK)</a> has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.</li>
</ul>


Three for three. Three low-balled Hong Kong Offers, by way of Schemes, have now lapsed over the past ten weeks. 
Both Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) and Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) spectacularly failed back in May.
Now Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) has followed suit. But the vote was (much) closer than it should have been.


Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Ntes, HSBC, Zto Express, Midea, CCB, Shenzhou Intl, Zijin Mining, Clp.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Ntes, HSBC, Zto Express, Midea, CCB, Shenzhou Intl, Zijin Mining, Clp.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Jun): Ntes, HSBC, Zto Express, Midea, CCB, Shenzhou Intl, Zijin Mining

Hong Kong

CK Infrastructure is a global infrastructure company with diversified investments in energy, transportation, water, and waste management sectors. It also produces construction materials like cement and asphalt. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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CK Infrastructure (1038 HK)

CKH (1 HK): Intervention Seeds Participation

CKH is cheap at 0.38x P/B. CKH is a long-term outright buy. CKI's market cap is up (only) US$7bn since the port deal was announced, just 37% of the...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: CKH (1 HK) - Expect Near-Term Weakness If Exclusivity Ends Without Resolution

The exclusivity ha expired, however CKH "remains in discussions with... the consortium with a view to inviting major strategic investor from the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Dickson Concept (113 HK): More Minority Teeth Bared As Another Scheme Fails

This is a consistently profitable company. The undisturbed price was $4.78. Yet the HSI is up ~12.8% since the Offer was announced, so perhaps...

David Blennerhassett

HSI Index Earning Revision (Jun): Ntes, HSBC, Zto Express, Midea, CCB, Shenzhou Intl, Zijin Mining

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Jun 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Ntes, HSBC, Zto Express, Midea, CCB, Shenzhou Intl, Zijin Mining, Clp.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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