Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>President Trump issued an emergency order invoking emergency powers to ban imports of bulk-power system electrical equipment from China and other countries subject to US arms embargoes or sanctions.</li>
<li>The order will further constrain data center construction, which depends on power system build-out to support AI demand and expand the grid. </li>
<li>For the three major Hong Kong-listed power equipment manufacturers, the direct revenue impact of Trump's order is limited, as the US has not been a significant market for their products. </li>
</ul>


President Trump issued an emergency order invoking emergency powers to ban imports of bulk-power system electrical equipment from China and other countries subject to US arms embargoes or sanctions.
The order will further constrain data center construction, which depends on power system build-out to support AI demand and expand the grid. 
For the three major Hong Kong-listed power equipment manufacturers, the direct revenue impact of Trump's order is limited, as the US has not been a significant market for their products. 


CHINA POWER SYSTEMS: Trump "Tilting at Windmills".... Again

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA expectations and unveiled a surprise strategic pivot toward rare earth minerals production.</li><li>This dramatic move has reenergized investor enthusiasm, particularly as it aligns with broader U.S. policy goals of reducing critical mineral dependence on China.</li><li>For the third quarter, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of $143 million versus Street estimates of $128 million, with revenue coming in at $4.7 billion.</li></ul>

Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA expectations and unveiled a surprise strategic pivot toward rare earth minerals production.This dramatic move has reenergized investor enthusiasm, particularly as it aligns with broader U.S. policy goals of reducing critical mineral dependence on China.For the third quarter, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of $143 million versus Street estimates of $128 million, with revenue coming in at $4.7 billion.

Cleveland-Cliffs Drops A Bombshell: Rare Earths, Auto Demand & Tariffs Drive MASSIVE Jump!

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Nucor’s management expects a 16% QoQ increase in EPS, with higher pricing and stronger volumes supporting earnings growth across both key segments.</li>
<li>Iowa’s planned steel capacity could reshape the longer-term supply balance, though the market has several years to absorb the additional tons before production ramps.</li>
<li>Elevated startup costs, raw material pressures, and Q4 seasonality emerge as key headwinds to monitor through the remainder of 2026.</li>
</ul>


Nucor’s management expects a 16% QoQ increase in EPS, with higher pricing and stronger volumes supporting earnings growth across both key segments.
Iowa’s planned steel capacity could reshape the longer-term supply balance, though the market has several years to absorb the additional tons before production ramps.
Elevated startup costs, raw material pressures, and Q4 seasonality emerge as key headwinds to monitor through the remainder of 2026.


Nucor’s Operating Momentum Meets a New Wave of U.S. Steel Capacity

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

<ul>
<li>The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.</li>
<li>The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.</li>
<li>Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.
The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.
Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.


Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

United States

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is an American iron ore mining company. The Company supplies iron ore pellets, lumps and fines to blast furnaces in the global steel industry. Cliffs is in the process of expanding its customer base to Electric Arc Furnaces.

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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF US)

CHINA POWER SYSTEMS: Trump "Tilting at Windmills".... Again

President Trump issued an emergency order invoking emergency powers to ban imports of bulk-power system electrical equipment from China and other...

David Mudd

Cleveland-Cliffs Drops A Bombshell: Rare Earths, Auto Demand & Tariffs Drive MASSIVE Jump!

Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA...

Baptista Research

Nucor’s Operating Momentum Meets a New Wave of U.S. Steel Capacity

Pricing, volumes and domestic demand remain supportive, but new U.S. capacity could become the next major test for Nucor.

Mint Finance

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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CHINA POWER SYSTEMS: Trump "Tilting at Windmills".... Again

President Trump issued an emergency order invoking emergency powers to ban imports of bulk-power system electrical equipment from China and other...

David Mudd

Cleveland-Cliffs Drops A Bombshell: Rare Earths, Auto Demand & Tariffs Drive MASSIVE Jump!

Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA...

Baptista Research

Nucor’s Operating Momentum Meets a New Wave of U.S. Steel Capacity

Pricing, volumes and domestic demand remain supportive, but new U.S. capacity could become the next major test for Nucor.

Mint Finance

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...