Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On 2 July, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) announced that it plans to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. Cosmecca Korea is the third largest cosmetics ODM company in Korea.</li>
<li>Cosmecca Korea's ROE is similar to the average ROE of the comps. However, Cosmecca Korea's P/B valuation is 36% discount to that of the comps.</li>
<li>By switching its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI, there is an increasing probability of the Cosmecca Korea receiving higher valuations, narrowing the gap with its peers. </li>
</ul>


On 2 July, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) announced that it plans to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. Cosmecca Korea is the third largest cosmetics ODM company in Korea.
Cosmecca Korea's ROE is similar to the average ROE of the comps. However, Cosmecca Korea's P/B valuation is 36% discount to that of the comps.
By switching its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI, there is an increasing probability of the Cosmecca Korea receiving higher valuations, narrowing the gap with its peers. 


Cosmecca Korea: Switching Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI Likely to Be Completed in 2H 2025

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The IPO price of d'Alba Global has been finalized at 66,300 won which is at the high end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>The demand ratio of the IPO was 1,141 to 1. A 98.4% of the IPO shares applied thought that the value of the company is 66,300 won or more.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation of d'Alba Global is a target price of 101,609 won per share, which represents 53% higher than the IPO price of 66,300 won.</li>
</ul>


The IPO price of d'Alba Global has been finalized at 66,300 won which is at the high end of the IPO price range.
The demand ratio of the IPO was 1,141 to 1. A 98.4% of the IPO shares applied thought that the value of the company is 66,300 won or more.
Our base case valuation of d'Alba Global is a target price of 101,609 won per share, which represents 53% higher than the IPO price of 66,300 won.


D'Alba Global IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.9x (40% premium to the comps) our estimated net profit of 58.9 billion won in 2025. </li>
<li>We believe d'Alba Global should trade at a premium valuation to the comps due to higher sales and operating profit growth, higher ROE and operating margins than the comps. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation of d'Alba Global target price of 101,609 won per share, which represents 53% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation range. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.9x (40% premium to the comps) our estimated net profit of 58.9 billion won in 2025. 
We believe d'Alba Global should trade at a premium valuation to the comps due to higher sales and operating profit growth, higher ROE and operating margins than the comps. 
Our base case valuation of d'Alba Global target price of 101,609 won per share, which represents 53% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation range. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> December rebalance complete, there could be 10 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.24-7.3 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.5-6.4 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a> early in the review period, but there has been a small downward drift over the last 4 months.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) December rebalance complete, there could be 10 changes at the review.
The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 0.24-7.3 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 0.5-6.4 days of ADV.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index early in the review period, but there has been a small downward drift over the last 4 months.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side and Some Close Names

<ul>
<li>With over 85% of the review period complete, there could be 10 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Even with 10 potential changes, there is sector balance with half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.2-7.7x ADV.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ150 Index</a> since the start of the review period, though there has been a gentle drift lower since July.</li>
</ul>


With over 85% of the review period complete, there could be 10 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Even with 10 potential changes, there is sector balance with half the changes in the Information Technology sector. Passive trading impact varies from 0.2-7.7x ADV.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ150 Index since the start of the review period, though there has been a gentle drift lower since July.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes in December

South Korea

Clio Cosmetics Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets lines of skin care and make-up products.  The Company owns multiple brands including Club Clio Professional, Peripera, and Goodal.

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Clio Cosmetics (237880 KS)

Cosmecca Korea: Switching Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI Likely to Be Completed in 2H 2025

On 2 July, Cosmecca Korea (241710 KS) announced that it plans to switch its listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI. Cosmecca Korea is the third largest...

Douglas Kim

D'Alba Global IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

The IPO price of d'Alba Global has been finalized at 66,300 won (high end of the IPO price range). A 98.4% of the IPO shares applied thought that...

Douglas Kim

D'Alba Global IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of d'Alba Global target price of 101,609 won per share, which represents 53% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation...

Douglas Kim

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes a Side and Some Close Names

We forecast 10 changes a side for the index in December. There are names that are close to market cap/liquidity thresholds. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes in December

There could be 10 changes for the index in December. Passive trading impact varies from 0.2-7.7x ADV. The adds have outperformed the deletes since...

Brian Freitas

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