Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

With US rates staying rangebound of late, we identify the EM countries whose long-end rates should outperform if US rates volatility continues to drop.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

With US rates staying rangebound of late, we identify the EM countries whose long-end rates should outperform if US rates volatility continues to drop.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Countries Stand to Benefit if US Rates Vol Keeps Falling?

Despite rising inflationary risks, the South African Reserve Bank held rates steady as it continues to focus on growth risks for now. We expect short-end rates to rise gradually, which combined with the risk premium in the long end coming off, should result in curve flattening.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Despite rising inflationary risks, the South African Reserve Bank held rates steady as it continues to focus on growth risks for now. We expect short-end rates to rise gradually, which combined with the risk premium in the long end coming off, should result in curve flattening.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: South Africa’s Rising Breakeven Inflation

In contrast with history, EM rates have underperformed the US even as US rates volatility has come off. The main reason for this atypical behavior is the fallout from the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus of last year. A positive outcome is an increase in the number of trading opportunities as a result of this behavior.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

In contrast with history, EM rates have underperformed the US even as US rates volatility has come off. The main reason for this atypical behavior is the fallout from the unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus of last year. A positive outcome is an increase in the number of trading opportunities as a result of this behavior.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM Rates Are Underperforming the US

In this note, we discuss the Mexican central bank's most recent monetary policy meeting where it kept policy rates steady while reiterating that it expects inflation to converge to the target next year. We continue to expect the central bank to raise rates this year and emphasize our trade recommendations meant to capture that view.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

In this note, we discuss the Mexican central bank's most recent monetary policy meeting where it kept policy rates steady while reiterating that it expects inflation to converge to the target next year. We continue to expect the central bank to raise rates this year and emphasize our trade recommendations meant to capture that view.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Mexico – Delaying the Inevitable Monetary Tightening

In this note, we discuss the outperformance of rates in Asia vis-à-vis the US, which has been broad-based and has persisted both when US rates were selling off and when they rallied back.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

In this note, we discuss the outperformance of rates in Asia vis-à-vis the US, which has been broad-based and has persisted both when US rates were selling off and when they rallied back.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to the broad market.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Rates in Asia Continue to Outperform the US

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CLP 10Y (CHSWP10 CURNCY)

Rates 10y Dashboard: Which EM Countries Stand to Benefit if US Rates Vol Keeps Falling?

With US rates staying rangebound of late, we identify the EM countries whose long-end rates should outperform if US rates volatility continues to...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: South Africa’s Rising Breakeven Inflation

Given the rising inflation breakeven in South Africa, we expect short-end rates to rise gradually, which combined with the risk premium in the long...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM Rates Are Underperforming the US

In contrast with history, EM rates have underperformed the US even as US rates volatility has come off, which is a fallout from the unprecedented...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Mexico – Delaying the Inevitable Monetary Tightening

While Mexico's central bank held rates steady at the meeting last week, we continue to expect it to raise rates this year and emphasize our trade...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Rates in Asia Continue to Outperform the US

In this note, we discuss the outperformance of rates in Asia vis-à-vis the US, which has been broad-based and has persisted both when US rates were...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)