Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback</li>
<li>Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).</li>
<li>The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed since late Sept increasing odds of a pullback to confluence of support at 4165-4200/the 200-day MA on SPX, and that if this support holds, it's a normal pullback
Ongoing market dynamics allow us to be even more confident in our unchanged outlook; 4216 was the low for this pullback, with 4200 getting hit overnight (early Wednesday last week).
The broad equity market is not yet out of the woods, but as long as the SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, we are bullish.


Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

<ul>
<li>The development of TSS has been a life's work. We are pleased to acknowledge that our first TSS publication on Smartkarma produced an impressive and rapid result.</li>
<li>On 20 October we determined that a new interim downtrend low below 168.49 would likely fail and reverse, producing a minimum 3-5% correction in 1-2 weeks. </li>
<li>A low of 166.58 on 21 October preceded a high of 176.36 on 25 October ... a 5.8% reversal in 3 days. Job done! Chart and further details attached.</li>
</ul>


The development of TSS has been a life's work. We are pleased to acknowledge that our first TSS publication on Smartkarma produced an impressive and rapid result.
On 20 October we determined that a new interim downtrend low below 168.49 would likely fail and reverse, producing a minimum 3-5% correction in 1-2 weeks. 
A low of 166.58 on 21 October preceded a high of 176.36 on 25 October ... a 5.8% reversal in 3 days. Job done! Chart and further details attached.


CME Group Inc (CME US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+5.8%)

<ul>
<li>CME US has declined 19% in the August to October period.</li>
<li>Our proprietary TSS methodology deems the interim downtrend to be exhausted (Trend Sustainability Score &lt; 10).</li>
<li>One last low in the coming 1-2 days, below 168.49, has a high probability of being unsustainable and triggering an upward correction of minimum 3-5% in the coming 1-2 weeks.</li>
</ul>


CME US has declined 19% in the August to October period.
Our proprietary TSS methodology deems the interim downtrend to be exhausted (Trend Sustainability Score &lt; 10).
One last low in the coming 1-2 days, below 168.49, has a high probability of being unsustainable and triggering an upward correction of minimum 3-5% in the coming 1-2 weeks.


CME Group Inc (CME US): TSS < 10 - Next Low Likely to Fail and Reverse 3-5%.

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>SEC rejected several applications to offer bitcoin spot ETF, and Grayscale Investment is considering suing the agency turns down its long-running proposal to convert its bitcoin trust to an ETF.</li>
<li>FED offered a balanced view on risk and reward of potential US central bank digital currency (CBDC), which could imply that FED might intend to issue CBDC in the future.</li>
<li>We estimated crypto trading volumes are down over 40% quarter-over-quarter on the back of lower prices and volatility. Bitcoin spot price was down as much as 27% in 1Q22.</li>
</ul>


SEC rejected several applications to offer bitcoin spot ETF, and Grayscale Investment is considering suing the agency turns down its long-running proposal to convert its bitcoin trust to an ETF.
FED offered a balanced view on risk and reward of potential US central bank digital currency (CBDC), which could imply that FED might intend to issue CBDC in the future.
We estimated crypto trading volumes are down over 40% quarter-over-quarter on the back of lower prices and volatility. Bitcoin spot price was down as much as 27% in 1Q22.


Crypto: Bitcoin Spot ETF And Fed Digital Currency Report

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LME Nickel future trading will be resumed on March 16 after its epic price surge before halting; the focus will be on safe reopen as more restrictions will be applied</li>
<li>The trading suspension benefits Chinese billionaire behind Nickel short position, who has secured bank lending in past few days. The angry parties are mainly hedge fund and financial investors. </li>
<li>We remain bullish on HKEX (388 HK) with the view that China economy will likely rebound in 2022, which will drive the rebound of IPO activities and trading volume. </li>
</ul>


LME Nickel future trading will be resumed on March 16 after its epic price surge before halting; the focus will be on safe reopen as more restrictions will be applied
The trading suspension benefits Chinese billionaire behind Nickel short position, who has secured bank lending in past few days. The angry parties are mainly hedge fund and financial investors. 
We remain bullish on HKEX (388 HK) with the view that China economy will likely rebound in 2022, which will drive the rebound of IPO activities and trading volume. 


HKEx (388.HK): Aftermath of Epic Short Squeeze of Nickel Future

United States

CME Group Inc. operates a derivatives exchange that trades futures contracts and options on futures, interest rates, stock indexes, foreign exchange and commodities.  The Exchange brings together buyers and sellers of derivatives products on its trading floors, electronic trading platform, and through privately negotiated transactions that it clears.

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Cme Group Inc (CME US)

Growing Confidence That the Lows Are In; 4165-4200/200-Day MA on SPX Remains Key; Buys in Financials

Our confidence in our outlook is growing: as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200 and the 200-day MA, most signs point to this being a normal...

Vermilion Research