CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 new join the fray</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 332% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 216%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 new join the fray
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 332% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 216%


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples</li>
<li>We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples
We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.


Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC's expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.</li>
<li>The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week's reco on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC's expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.
The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week's reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025):  Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach

<ul>
<li>The last two weeks have seen "Beautiful Skew" behave badly across the ten trading days. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> is trading too wide for its div into year-end.</li>
<li>The long reco on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> two weeks ago saw the H-share rise 6.8% from the next day through Friday, and the H OUTperformed its A by 2.62%.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


The last two weeks have seen "Beautiful Skew" behave badly across the ten trading days. CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) is trading too wide for its div into year-end.
The long reco on Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) two weeks ago saw the H-share rise 6.8% from the next day through Friday, and the H OUTperformed its A by 2.62%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 24 Oct 2025):  Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly; High Div SOEs

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia has corrected 10%, propelled by Korea, Taiwan and Onshore China. AI capex anxiety, concerns about spike in inflation and interest rates and Middle East tensions are the main drivers.</li>
<li>Analysis of last 20 years' bear market shows that monetary policy tightening has been a regular feature of bear markets, unless severe macro-economic retrenchment (like in GFC) triggers the drawdown.</li>
<li>Asian policy rates are increasing but we don't think severe inflation spike is likely yet, unless the Iran war escalates sharply. We like materials, energy, AI "picks and shovels", financials.</li>
</ul>


Asia has corrected 10%, propelled by Korea, Taiwan and Onshore China. AI capex anxiety, concerns about spike in inflation and interest rates and Middle East tensions are the main drivers.
Analysis of last 20 years' bear market shows that monetary policy tightening has been a regular feature of bear markets, unless severe macro-economic retrenchment (like in GFC) triggers the drawdown.
Asian policy rates are increasing but we don't think severe inflation spike is likely yet, unless the Iran war escalates sharply. We like materials, energy, AI "picks and shovels", financials.


Asian Equities: Not a Forthcoming Collapse; Inflation and Rates the Key Issues

Hong Kong

CNOOC Limited is China's largest producer of offshore crude oil and natural gas, specializing in the exploration, development, production, and sale of these resources. The company also engages in refining, chemical operations, and offshore wind power. It was incorporated in Hong Kong in 1999 and has its operational headquarters in Beijing.

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CNOOC (883 HK)

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 54

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 new join the fray.

A. Stotz Investment Research

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Global Energy and Consumer Staples Names; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy. Monitoring a few potential concerns

Vermilion Research

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach

AH sees another week of non-beautiful skew as H premia or super narrow H discounts see Hs outperform, wider discounts the opposite. The SFC goal of...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 24 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly; High Div SOEs

AH Pairs saw sharp NEGATIVE Beautiful Skew the past few weeks as narrow AH premia saw Hs advance and wide premia saw Hs underperform. Ugly. High...

Travis Lundy

Asian Equities: Not a Forthcoming Collapse; Inflation and Rates the Key Issues

AI anxiety, inflation fear, Iran war driving Asia's drop. Monetary policy tightening triggers bear markets, but severe inflation unlikely unless...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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