Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia-Ex-Japan is down 10% since the war started. The underperformers, Korea, Indonesia, India, Philippines and Thailand, have high import dependence on energy or, significant current account and fiscal deficits.</li>
<li>Myriad concerns impact Asian markets: energy and industrial input shortage, energy price shock driving inflation expectations and demand destruction, and higher energy prices hurting current accounts and fiscal balances. </li>
<li>Oil exploration, defense, green energy and the high dividend yield cash proxies seem to be the only safe spots in this tumultuous environment. These sectors have understandably generated positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Asia-Ex-Japan is down 10% since the war started. The underperformers, Korea, Indonesia, India, Philippines and Thailand, have high import dependence on energy or, significant current account and fiscal deficits.
Myriad concerns impact Asian markets: energy and industrial input shortage, energy price shock driving inflation expectations and demand destruction, and higher energy prices hurting current accounts and fiscal balances. 
Oil exploration, defense, green energy and the high dividend yield cash proxies seem to be the only safe spots in this tumultuous environment. These sectors have understandably generated positive returns.


Asian Equities: Market Movements Reflect Macro Risks

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.</li>
<li>The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a>  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our global (MSCI ACWI) near-term outlook to neutral in our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision, following ACWI-US breaking below $141.50 support.
The bottom line is that we do not see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) or MSCI ACWI breaking out to new highs –at least not until we see more downside first.
The growing list of concerns that we have discussed since early-February remains a problem for global equities. Crucial iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)  support at $134-$135.70 testing now.


Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Iran War has shifted attention  to the oil and gas sector</li>
<li>The E&amp;P companies have been front running the move in oil prices</li>
<li>We look at some smaller companies adjacent to the E&amp;P industry</li>
</ul>


The Iran War has shifted attention  to the oil and gas sector
The E&amp;P companies have been front running the move in oil prices
We look at some smaller companies adjacent to the E&amp;P industry


A High‑Beta Basket of HK Stocks Leveraged to a Cyclical Oil Bull Market.

<ul>
<li>Asia's dependence on Middle Eastern energy and the Strait of Hormuz transit route has driven immense share price volatility - especially in Korea, Japan and pockets of ASEAN.  </li>
<li>The top winners and top losers across market-sectors indicate that the market is most worried about input shortage across industries and potential demand destruction driven by heightened inflation expectation.</li>
<li>Manufacturing sectors and consumer proxies across Asia could continue to underperform if the conflict lingers. Energy, high dividend yield, precious metals and developed Asia financials could be the safe havens.</li>
</ul>


Asia's dependence on Middle Eastern energy and the Strait of Hormuz transit route has driven immense share price volatility - especially in Korea, Japan and pockets of ASEAN.  
The top winners and top losers across market-sectors indicate that the market is most worried about input shortage across industries and potential demand destruction driven by heightened inflation expectation.
Manufacturing sectors and consumer proxies across Asia could continue to underperform if the conflict lingers. Energy, high dividend yield, precious metals and developed Asia financials could be the safe havens.


Asian Equities: What's Being Discounted Now, After the Carnage?

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (ADR) (CEO US)

Asian Equities: Market Movements Reflect Macro Risks

Asian markets especially KR, ID, IN, PH & TH, are weak due to high energy imports or significant deficits. Oil exploration, defense, green energy...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

A High‑Beta Basket of HK Stocks Leveraged to a Cyclical Oil Bull Market.

As the Iran war brings focus tot he oil and gas sector, we look at some high-beta companies with leverage to the oil bull market

Rikki Malik

Asian Equities: What's Being Discounted Now, After the Carnage?

Asia's equity volatility is driven by its reliance on ME energy. Top worries are about input shortages & demand destruction. Safe havens: Energy,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Market Movements Reflect Macro Risks

​Asian markets especially KR, ID, IN, PH & TH, are weak due to high energy imports or significant deficits. Oil exploration, defense, green energy...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

Stay Defensive. Buys in Global Energy, Materials, Transports, Communications, Utilities, Staples

Thursday's International Compass: Stay Defensive. Actionable Global Sectors: Energy, Materials, Transportation, Communications, Utilities, and...

Vermilion Research

A High‑Beta Basket of HK Stocks Leveraged to a Cyclical Oil Bull Market.

As the Iran war brings focus tot he oil and gas sector, we look at some high-beta companies with leverage to the oil bull market

Rikki Malik

Asian Equities: What's Being Discounted Now, After the Carnage?

​Asia's equity volatility is driven by its reliance on ME energy. Top worries are about input shortages & demand destruction. Safe havens: Energy,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian markets especially KR, ID, IN, PH & TH, are weak due to high energy imports or significant deficits. Oil exploration, defense, green energy...

Asia's equity volatility is driven by its reliance on ME energy. Top worries are about input shortages & demand destruction. Safe havens: Energy,...