Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China International Capital Corporation / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. AH premia on average fell so Hs OUTperformed As by 2.1%. Liquid Hs saw their H outperform the A by 3.1% on average.</li>
<li>Last week was the sharpest one-week fall in AH premium in a very long time.  SOUTHBOUND Flows Monitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hk-connect-southbound-flows-to-23-feb-2024-selling-of-consumer-stocks-but-big-buys-of-soes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. NORTHBOUND Flows Monitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mainland-connect-northbound-flows-to-23-feb-2024-foreigners-buy-natl-team-buys-retail-sells" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. AH premia on average fell so Hs OUTperformed As by 2.1%. Liquid Hs saw their H outperform the A by 3.1% on average.
Last week was the sharpest one-week fall in AH premium in a very long time.  SOUTHBOUND Flows Monitor here. NORTHBOUND Flows Monitor here.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 Feb 2024):  Liquid AH Premia See Sharpest Fall in a LOONG (He-He) Time

<ul>
<li>A great week for HK and Chinese shares, especially the larger caps. Mainland indices were up 8 days in a row to Friday, helping HK shares stay bid.</li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$20.0bn in the first post-holiday week. LOTS of SOEs on the net buying side.</li>
<li>Remarkable this past week, was a new tendency to net sell names which were up a lot and net buy names which haven't performed as well. </li>
</ul>


A great week for HK and Chinese shares, especially the larger caps. Mainland indices were up 8 days in a row to Friday, helping HK shares stay bid.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was HK$20.0bn in the first post-holiday week. LOTS of SOEs on the net buying side.
Remarkable this past week, was a new tendency to net sell names which were up a lot and net buy names which haven't performed as well. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Feb 2024); Selling of Consumer Stocks, But Big Buys of SOEs

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.</li>
<li>Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.</li>
<li>Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.</li>
</ul>


The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.
Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.
Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 9th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 9th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 9th): Tencent

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>More deflation reported in China and the implications for markets</li>
<li>Chinese authorities keep pushing liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market</li>
<li>Parts of the Chinese Economy not as bad as the doomsayers would have you believe</li>
</ul>


More deflation reported in China and the implications for markets
Chinese authorities keep pushing liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market
Parts of the Chinese Economy not as bad as the doomsayers would have you believe


CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 Feb 2024): Liquid AH Premia See Sharpest Fall in a LOONG (He-He) Time

Quiddity AH Monitor. The Quiddity Portfolio +1.49% despite being only 55% net long (52 long H short A, 15 short H long A); Big week in many pairs....

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Feb 2024); Selling of Consumer Stocks, But Big Buys of SOEs

SOUTHBOUND saw significant net buying in the first week after Chinese New Year. Large caps and SOEs were heavily bought. Especially in energy and...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

We see the HSCEI 2024 div futures slightly underpriced with the potential for more upside. There are risks to the trade, mainly from the banks and...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 9th): Tencent

We have analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 23 Feb 2024): Liquid AH Premia See Sharpest Fall in a LOONG (He-He) Time

Quiddity AH Monitor. The Quiddity Portfolio +1.49% despite being only 55% net long (52 long H short A, 15 short H long A); Big week in many pairs....

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 Feb 2024); Selling of Consumer Stocks, But Big Buys of SOEs

SOUTHBOUND saw significant net buying in the first week after Chinese New Year. Large caps and SOEs were heavily bought. Especially in energy and...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

We see the HSCEI 2024 div futures slightly underpriced with the potential for more upside. There are risks to the trade, mainly from the banks and...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 9th): Tencent

We have analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

​China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...

Rikki Malik

China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...