Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC's expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.</li>
<li>The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week's reco on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC's expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.
The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week's reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025):  Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach

<ul>
<li>The last two weeks have seen "Beautiful Skew" behave badly across the ten trading days. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> is trading too wide for its div into year-end.</li>
<li>The long reco on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> two weeks ago saw the H-share rise 6.8% from the next day through Friday, and the H OUTperformed its A by 2.62%.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


The last two weeks have seen "Beautiful Skew" behave badly across the ten trading days. CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) is trading too wide for its div into year-end.
The long reco on Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) two weeks ago saw the H-share rise 6.8% from the next day through Friday, and the H OUTperformed its A by 2.62%.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 24 Oct 2025):  Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly; High Div SOEs

Smartkarma AI, Smartkarma

αSK

Smartkarma AI

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>CNOOC stands as China's largest offshore oil and gas producer, uniquely positioned with exclusive rights for offshore exploration in partnership with international firms. This state-owned enterprise benefits from strong government backing and a low-cost structure, making it a resilient player in the volatile energy market.</li>
 <li>The company has a clear growth strategy focused on increasing reserves and production, with net production guided to reach 760-780 million BOE in 2025 and projected to grow to 810-830 million BOE by 2027. This growth is supported by stable capital expenditures and a commitment to technological innovation and green development.</li>
 <li>Significant geopolitical risks, including potential U.S. sanctions and internal governance challenges within China's state-owned enterprise system, present major uncertainties. These factors, combined with the inherent volatility of oil and gas prices, could impact future performance and investor returns.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  CNOOC stands as China's largest offshore oil and gas producer, uniquely positioned with exclusive rights for offshore exploration in partnership with international firms. This state-owned enterprise benefits from strong government backing and a low-cost structure, making it a resilient player in the volatile energy market.
  The company has a clear growth strategy focused on increasing reserves and production, with net production guided to reach 760-780 million BOE in 2025 and projected to grow to 810-830 million BOE by 2027. This growth is supported by stable capital expenditures and a commitment to technological innovation and green development.
  Significant geopolitical risks, including potential U.S. sanctions and internal governance challenges within China's state-owned enterprise system, present major uncertainties. These factors, combined with the inherent volatility of oil and gas prices, could impact future performance and investor returns.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

<ul>
<li>"Beautiful Skew" slightly visible but not huge, not consistent.On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 1.99% so +2.79% over 2 weeks.</li>
<li>Last week's long reco on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> gained just over 1% on the week in Hs and the H outperformed the A by 0.6% Friday to Friday.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


"Beautiful Skew" slightly visible but not huge, not consistent.On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 1.99% so +2.79% over 2 weeks.
Last week's long reco on China Communications Construction (1800 HK) gained just over 1% on the week in Hs and the H outperformed the A by 0.6% Friday to Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Sep 2025):  AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Volatile

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market</li>
<li>Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal</li>
<li>A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets</li>
</ul>


The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market
Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal
A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets


2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach

AH sees another week of non-beautiful skew as H premia or super narrow H discounts see Hs outperform, wider discounts the opposite. The SFC goal of...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 24 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly; High Div SOEs

AH Pairs saw sharp NEGATIVE Beautiful Skew the past few weeks as narrow AH premia saw Hs advance and wide premia saw Hs underperform. Ugly. High...

Travis Lundy

Primer: CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) - Sep 2025

CNOOC stands as China's largest offshore oil and gas producer, uniquely positioned with exclusive rights for offshore exploration in partnership...

αSK

A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Volatile

AH Premia contracted this past week. The volatility of pairs was significant. Many AH pairs moved spreads by 5-8% even 10%. There is a lot of noise...

Travis Lundy

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Why a basket of commodity producers provide a good risk reward for any portfolio looking to get a real return. Underowned and unloved!

Rikki Malik

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