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Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: Will wind go out of SPACs’ sails in Singapore and Hong Kong?</li><li>China’s cabinet vows stronger policy to boost jobs amid Covid upsurge</li><li>Yuan losses have room to run as Covid puts economy under siege</li></ul>

In Depth: Will wind go out of SPACs’ sails in Singapore and Hong Kong?China’s cabinet vows stronger policy to boost jobs amid Covid upsurgeYuan losses have room to run as Covid puts economy under siege

CX Daily: Will Wind Go Out of SPACs’ Sails in Singapore and Hong Kong?

Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>As the US dollar approaches its highest level in a decade in line with my expectation, I reiterate my view of the dollar remaining strong in the near term.</li>
<li>The dollar spike coincides with the rise in US rates volatility, which makes sense as the market is trapped between Fed tightening and risk aversion arising from rising recession probability.</li>
<li>As the year progresses, I expect the dollar to weaken and the environment to turn supportive of EM currencies. Until then, I recommend relative-value trades and hedging with the euro.</li>
</ul>


As the US dollar approaches its highest level in a decade in line with my expectation, I reiterate my view of the dollar remaining strong in the near term.
The dollar spike coincides with the rise in US rates volatility, which makes sense as the market is trapped between Fed tightening and risk aversion arising from rising recession probability.
As the year progresses, I expect the dollar to weaken and the environment to turn supportive of EM currencies. Until then, I recommend relative-value trades and hedging with the euro.


Revisiting the US Dollar View and Its Implications for EM Currencies

<ul><li>In Depth: Shanghai residents organize themselves to survive lockdown chaos</li><li>Nio joins caravan of automakers halting production in China due to Covid</li><li>Foreign investors cut China bond holdings at record pace</li></ul>

In Depth: Shanghai residents organize themselves to survive lockdown chaosNio joins caravan of automakers halting production in China due to CovidForeign investors cut China bond holdings at record pace

CX Daily: Shanghai Residents Organize Themselves to Survive Lockdown Chaos

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.</li><li>That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.</li><li>The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.</li></ul>

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.

<ul>
<li>Foreign investments in China’s government bonds had been on the rise in recent years with the market appearing to acquire a safe-haven status as it became more accessible and liquid.</li>
<li>Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have changed this as the country is likely to default despite its large international reserves, which presents spillover risks to others, particularly China.</li>
<li>After suffering heavy losses in Russian holdings, investors are likely to factor in political and geopolitical risks more explicitly going forward, which would work against China.</li>
</ul>


Foreign investments in China’s government bonds had been on the rise in recent years with the market appearing to acquire a safe-haven status as it became more accessible and liquid.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have changed this as the country is likely to default despite its large international reserves, which presents spillover risks to others, particularly China.
After suffering heavy losses in Russian holdings, investors are likely to factor in political and geopolitical risks more explicitly going forward, which would work against China.


Early Signs of a Geopolitical Risk Premium in China’s Bonds?

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CX Daily: Will Wind Go Out of SPACs’ Sails in Singapore and Hong Kong?

In Depth: Will wind go out of SPACs’ sails in Singapore and Hong Kong? China’s cabinet vows stronger policy to boost jobs amid Covid upsurge

Caixin Global

Revisiting the US Dollar View and Its Implications for EM Currencies

As the US dollar approaches its highest level in a decade, I reiterate my view of the dollar remaining strong in the near term. As the year...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

CX Daily: Shanghai Residents Organize Themselves to Survive Lockdown Chaos

In Depth: Shanghai residents organize themselves to survive lockdown chaos. Nio joins caravan of automakers halting production in China due to Covid

Caixin Global

A powder keg

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets. That is until two weeks ago...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Early Signs of a Geopolitical Risk Premium in China’s Bonds?

China's government bonds were being viewed as a safe-haven asset but Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have changed this with geopolitical risks...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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