Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Initial bearish outlook on Asian effects due to President Trump's tariff storm</li><li>Unexpected multi sigma moves in Asian currencies, sparking speculation of currency accord</li><li>Uncertainty surrounding flow types, behavior of Asian exporters, and Asian central banks, with key questions hanging over China's influence on Asian FX appreciation</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Initial bearish outlook on Asian effects due to President Trump's tariff stormUnexpected multi sigma moves in Asian currencies, sparking speculation of currency accordUncertainty surrounding flow types, behavior of Asian exporters, and Asian central banks, with key questions hanging over China's influence on Asian FX appreciationThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Historic trade deals and take-aways for currencies

<ul><li>Market is seeing an uptick in CNY fixing, potentially halting the DXY bear trend temporarily</li><li>Investors are focused on upcoming tariff event risk on April 2, leading to de-risking behavior</li><li>Various potential scenarios for tariff implementation and FX response, with uncertainty around delivery and impact of tariffs on different sectors and countries</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market is seeing an uptick in CNY fixing, potentially halting the DXY bear trend temporarilyInvestors are focused on upcoming tariff event risk on April 2, leading to de-risking behaviorVarious potential scenarios for tariff implementation and FX response, with uncertainty around delivery and impact of tariffs on different sectors and countriesThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: What to expect when you are expecting tariffs (again)

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China has 'won' the first phase of the trade war, with exports up 5%YoY and imports down 1%YoY in Jan-Oct'25 despite an appreciating RMB and high US tariffs (now stabilised). </li>
<li>FAI has declined YoY since Jun'25, declining 12.5%YoY in Oct'25, and severe PPI deflation has persisted for 37 months. Declining imports widened the 12m rolling-sum trade surplus to US$1.17trn. </li>
<li>Stagnant FX reserves show net capital and service/income outflows of US$825bn in Jan-Oct'25. Domestic vulnerabilities, however, are being papered over by the trade truce with the US. Bullish for China.</li>
</ul>


China has 'won' the first phase of the trade war, with exports up 5%YoY and imports down 1%YoY in Jan-Oct'25 despite an appreciating RMB and high US tariffs (now stabilised). 
FAI has declined YoY since Jun'25, declining 12.5%YoY in Oct'25, and severe PPI deflation has persisted for 37 months. Declining imports widened the 12m rolling-sum trade surplus to US$1.17trn. 
Stagnant FX reserves show net capital and service/income outflows of US$825bn in Jan-Oct'25. Domestic vulnerabilities, however, are being papered over by the trade truce with the US. Bullish for China.


China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

<ul><li>Trump plans to put serious tariffs on Mexico and Canada due to immigration and drug issues, impacting Asian currencies</li><li>US and UK CPI data in focus for the week ahead, with expectations of higher inflation</li><li>Currency depreciation pressures in Asia expected to continue, with China and Korea most vulnerable to depreciation pressures</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Trump plans to put serious tariffs on Mexico and Canada due to immigration and drug issues, impacting Asian currenciesUS and UK CPI data in focus for the week ahead, with expectations of higher inflationCurrency depreciation pressures in Asia expected to continue, with China and Korea most vulnerable to depreciation pressuresThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies

Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

<ul><li>April 2025 saw extreme market volatility after President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, mainly aimed at China.</li><li>Subsequent delays and complex exemptions fueled market swings, sparking fears of recession and inflation. First quarter 2025 US GDP contraction is not a trend.</li><li>Despite headline risks, deeper analysis suggests a more balanced global economy over the longer term. Both China and the US will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession</li></ul>

April 2025 saw extreme market volatility after President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, mainly aimed at China.Subsequent delays and complex exemptions fueled market swings, sparking fears of recession and inflation. First quarter 2025 US GDP contraction is not a trend.Despite headline risks, deeper analysis suggests a more balanced global economy over the longer term. Both China and the US will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession

Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

Global FX: Historic trade deals and take-aways for currencies

Overall, there is uncertainty and speculation surrounding the future of Asian currencies in light of President Trump's tariffs and unexpected large...

At Any Rate

Global FX: What to expect when you are expecting tariffs (again)

Market participants are closely watching the impact of CNY fixing, de-risking ahead of tariff events, and the uncertain response of FX to potential...

At Any Rate

China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies

Trump suggests implementing tariffs to stop immigration from Mexico and Canada, US and UK CPI data expected to be higher, Fed may be hawkish on...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025

This report presents a contrarian view to the doom and gloom view of the global economy as trade tensions escalate between the US and China

Kok Peng Chan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Global FX: Historic trade deals and take-aways for currencies

Overall, there is uncertainty and speculation surrounding the future of Asian currencies in light of President Trump's tariffs and unexpected large...

At Any Rate

Global FX: What to expect when you are expecting tariffs (again)

Market participants are closely watching the impact of CNY fixing, de-risking ahead of tariff events, and the uncertain response of FX to potential...

At Any Rate

China: Winning the Trade War While Still Imploding Domestically

​China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Week Ahead – CPI, China, and Currencies

Trump suggests implementing tariffs to stop immigration from Mexico and Canada, US and UK CPI data expected to be higher, Fed may be hawkish on...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025

This report presents a contrarian view to the doom and gloom view of the global economy as trade tensions escalate between the US and China

Kok Peng Chan

China's record trade surplus, despite stronger RMB, shows China has won 1st phase of the trade war. Vulnerabilities (big net capital outflows,...