Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Increased demand from power plants under construction outside  G-7 countries</li>
<li>There is constrained supply as with many other fossil fuels</li>
<li>We look at a basket of coal stocks with good balance sheets and increasing production</li>
</ul>


Increased demand from power plants under construction outside  G-7 countries
There is constrained supply as with many other fossil fuels
We look at a basket of coal stocks with good balance sheets and increasing production


Coal Is Back - The Real Inconvenient Truth

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Union Cabinet cleared a INR 37,500 crore viability-gap scheme to accelerate surface coal and lignite gasification, targeting 75MTPA, bringing 25 additional projects alongside four already underway.</li>
<li>India's FY25 import bill for LNG, urea, ammonia, and methanol stood at INR 2.77 lakh crore. Coal gasification at scale could structurally compress this bill worth INR 60,000–90,000 crore annually.</li>
<li>The scheme is structurally positive, but commissioning risk and India's high-ash coal challenge mean execution separates eventual winners. CIL, BHEL, and GAIL stand out as near-term direct beneficiaries .</li>
</ul>


Union Cabinet cleared a INR 37,500 crore viability-gap scheme to accelerate surface coal and lignite gasification, targeting 75MTPA, bringing 25 additional projects alongside four already underway.
India's FY25 import bill for LNG, urea, ammonia, and methanol stood at INR 2.77 lakh crore. Coal gasification at scale could structurally compress this bill worth INR 60,000–90,000 crore annually.
The scheme is structurally positive, but commissioning risk and India's high-ash coal challenge mean execution separates eventual winners. CIL, BHEL, and GAIL stand out as near-term direct beneficiaries .


37,500Cr Coal Gasification Scheme: These Indian Companies Will Benefit

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Premium hard-coking-coal averaged about USD 236/ton FOB Australia in Jan–July 2026, up 25% year on year, as Australian disruptions, Chinese supply losses and Middle East freight risks tightened the market.</li>
<li>India imports the overwhelming majority of metallurgical coking coal used by blast-furnace mills. Every USD 10/ton rise in coal can add roughly USD 7–9/ton to steelmaking costs.</li>
<li>The near-term earnings risk is concentrated in blast-furnace producers with weaker pricing power. Longer term, India’s capacity expansion deepens coking-coal exposure unless domestic washing and blending improve materially.</li>
</ul>


Premium hard-coking-coal averaged about USD 236/ton FOB Australia in Jan–July 2026, up 25% year on year, as Australian disruptions, Chinese supply losses and Middle East freight risks tightened the market.
India imports the overwhelming majority of metallurgical coking coal used by blast-furnace mills. Every USD 10/ton rise in coal can add roughly USD 7–9/ton to steelmaking costs.
The near-term earnings risk is concentrated in blast-furnace producers with weaker pricing power. Longer term, India’s capacity expansion deepens coking-coal exposure unless domestic washing and blending improve materially.


How Rising Coking Coal Prices Impacting Indian Steel Producers?

<ul>
<li>China’s coal-based urea and chemicals chain absorbed the 2026 Middle East shock far better than gas- and oil-dependent competitors.</li>
<li>India imports critical industrial feedstocks and remains exposed to LNG, fertiliser and petrochemical supply disruptions through maritime chokepoints.</li>
<li>Coal gasification should be treated as strategic industrial infrastructure not merely another coal project provided economics, ash technology and carbon capture are solved</li>
</ul>


China’s coal-based urea and chemicals chain absorbed the 2026 Middle East shock far better than gas- and oil-dependent competitors.
India imports critical industrial feedstocks and remains exposed to LNG, fertiliser and petrochemical supply disruptions through maritime chokepoints.
Coal gasification should be treated as strategic industrial infrastructure not merely another coal project provided economics, ash technology and carbon capture are solved


What India Needs to Learn from China on Coal Gasification?

<ul>
<li>Global LNG prices are rising into 2025–26, driven by ~60% YoY US gas price surge and Qatar supply disruptions, briefly triggering real-time gas-to-coal switching dynamics.</li>
<li>Costly or scarce LNG pushes power producers toward coal. Coal India’s e-auctions and NLC India’s low-cost lignite tariffs act as key listed proxies for this fuel-switching trend.</li>
<li>
India’s gas power runs below 15% utilization, making coal the default. Fuel-switching is already active, but markets haven’t fully priced in this structural correlation yet.</li>
</ul>


Global LNG prices are rising into 2025–26, driven by ~60% YoY US gas price surge and Qatar supply disruptions, briefly triggering real-time gas-to-coal switching dynamics.
Costly or scarce LNG pushes power producers toward coal. Coal India’s e-auctions and NLC India’s low-cost lignite tariffs act as key listed proxies for this fuel-switching trend.

India’s gas power runs below 15% utilization, making coal the default. Fuel-switching is already active, but markets haven’t fully priced in this structural correlation yet.


From Gas to Coal: The Hidden Hedge in Energy Markets

India

Coal India Limited (CIL) is the world's largest coal producer, engaged in the exploration, production, and marketing of coal and coal products. It primarily supplies thermal coal for power generation and coking coal for steel and metallurgical industries. Headquartered in Kolkata, West Bengal, India, the company was established in November 1975.

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Coal India (COAL IN)

Coal Is Back - The Real Inconvenient Truth

Growing demand for coal outside of G-7 countries is putting pressure on already limited supply, leading to opportunities in coal stocks with...

Rikki Malik

37,500Cr Coal Gasification Scheme: These Indian Companies Will Benefit

Union Cabinet approves INR 37,500 crore scheme to boost coal gasification, aiming to reduce India's import bill for LNG, urea, ammonia, and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

How Rising Coking Coal Prices Impacting Indian Steel Producers?

The headline is a 25% YoY rise in premium hard coking-coal prices during the first seven months of 2026. How this will impact the Indian steel...

Nimish Maheshwari

What India Needs to Learn from China on Coal Gasification?

China's coal-based industry outperformed gas and oil competitors during Middle East shock; India remains vulnerable to supply disruptions; coal...

Nimish Maheshwari

From Gas to Coal: The Hidden Hedge in Energy Markets

Global LNG prices are rising due to US gas price surge and Qatar supply disruptions, leading to gas-to-coal switching dynamics. India's low gas...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Coal Is Back - The Real Inconvenient Truth

​Growing demand for coal outside of G-7 countries is putting pressure on already limited supply, leading to opportunities in coal stocks with...

Rikki Malik

37,500Cr Coal Gasification Scheme: These Indian Companies Will Benefit

​Union Cabinet approves INR 37,500 crore scheme to boost coal gasification, aiming to reduce India's import bill for LNG, urea, ammonia, and...

Sudarshan Bhandari

How Rising Coking Coal Prices Impacting Indian Steel Producers?

The headline is a 25% YoY rise in premium hard coking-coal prices during the first seven months of 2026. How this will impact the Indian steel...

Nimish Maheshwari

What India Needs to Learn from China on Coal Gasification?

​China's coal-based industry outperformed gas and oil competitors during Middle East shock; India remains vulnerable to supply disruptions; coal...

Nimish Maheshwari

From Gas to Coal: The Hidden Hedge in Energy Markets

​Global LNG prices are rising due to US gas price surge and Qatar supply disruptions, leading to gas-to-coal switching dynamics. India's low gas...

Nimish Maheshwari

Growing demand for coal outside of G-7 countries is putting pressure on already limited supply, leading to opportunities in coal stocks with...

Union Cabinet approves INR 37,500 crore scheme to boost coal gasification, aiming to reduce India's import bill for LNG, urea, ammonia, and...

China's coal-based industry outperformed gas and oil competitors during Middle East shock; India remains vulnerable to supply disruptions; coal...

Global LNG prices are rising due to US gas price surge and Qatar supply disruptions, leading to gas-to-coal switching dynamics. India's low gas...