Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.</li>
<li>We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...</li>
<li>...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold.
We are not fighting the bullish trend with all the MSCI global indexes (MSCI ACWI, EAFE, ACWI ex-US, and EM) hitting multi-year highs, but we are monitoring potential concerns--notably...
...global defensives Staples (KXI-US), Utilities (JXI-US), RealEstate (RWO-US) at 5+ month RS highs, U.S. dollar (DXY) holding above $96.40, crude oil prices bottoming, gasoline (UGA) breaking out from 3.5+year downtrend.


Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The food and beverage sector stands out for its aggressive dual approach—raising prices while driving internal efficiencies—which could position it for earnings outperformance if input cost inflation stabilizes.</li>
<li>Alcoholic beverage makers are facing near-term consumption risks post-price hikes. Yet they are pursuing structural cost improvements to safeguard margins.</li>
<li>Department store operators are balancing strong recent performance and structural transformation with near-term headwinds from remodeling and softer inbound trends.</li>
</ul>


The food and beverage sector stands out for its aggressive dual approach—raising prices while driving internal efficiencies—which could position it for earnings outperformance if input cost inflation stabilizes.
Alcoholic beverage makers are facing near-term consumption risks post-price hikes. Yet they are pursuing structural cost improvements to safeguard margins.
Department store operators are balancing strong recent performance and structural transformation with near-term headwinds from remodeling and softer inbound trends.


Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST • </strong></p><p>Tuesday's best and worst pair is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/askul-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16807:1" rel="noopener">Askul (2678 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-bottlers-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20051:1" rel="noopener">Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)</a>.  </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/802/original/2020-12-16_06-23-51.png?1608067445" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178802"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/803/original/2020-12-16_06-24-41.png?1608067495" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178803"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics    </div><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a></strong>- Drugstore Tsuruha also reported interim results and revised up modestly. Although the results are commendable and the shares are close to a new post-listing, Tsuruha shares have been a relative underperformer since May. We do not expect that to change in their second half.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/804/original/2020-12-16_06-27-31.png?1608067665" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178804"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/178/805/original/2020-12-16_06-27-59.png?1608067693" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="178805"></figure></section>

• BEST &amp; WORST • Tuesday's best and worst pair is Askul (2678 JP) and Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP).  Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics    Tsuruha (3391 JP)- Drugstore Tsuruha also reported interim results and revised up modestly. Although the results are commendable and the shares are close to a new post-listing, Tsuruha shares have been a relative underperformer since May. We do not expect that to change in their second half.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 Askul, Coca-Cola B,Tsuruha

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pair from Monday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weathernews-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16991:1" rel="noopener">Weathernews (4825 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-bottlers-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20051:1" rel="noopener">Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)</a>. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/489/original/2020-10-06_05-34-42.png?1601930214" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163489"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/163/490/original/2020-10-06_05-35-26.png?1601930263" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="163490"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>
<div><p>DAILY STATS</p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>12 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 33% Positive / 8% Neutral / 58% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.0 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -12.5% Quarter YoY / -5.1% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -3.3ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 25%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>10 Annual • 5 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 50% Positive /20% Neutral / 30% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 20% Positive / 0% Neutral / 80% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -5.1 point</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pair from Monday's announcements is Weathernews (4825 JP) and Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP). 
Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
DAILY STATS

12 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 33% Positive / 8% Neutral / 58% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -2.0 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -12.5% Quarter YoY / -5.1% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.3ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 25%


10 Annual • 5 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 50% Positive /20% Neutral / 30% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 20% Positive / 0% Neutral / 80% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.1 point



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​05 Fuji, Weathernews, Create SD, Daikin, Coca Cola Japan

Japan

Coca Cola Bottlers Japan produces and sells Coca-Cola, other beverages and foods through subsidiaries. The company also operates logistics, auto vending machine, and other businesses.

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Coca Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, and Transports. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets $EEM,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/15 Askul, Coca-Cola B,Tsuruha

• BEST & WORST • Tuesday's best and worst pair is Askul (2678 JP) and Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)....................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/05 Fuji, Weathernews, Create SD, Daikin, Coca Cola Japan

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair is home centre Shimachu (8184 JP) for whom a rumoured bid from peer DCM has emerged and diaper...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, Transports

Defensives Leading; Concerns Persist. Actionable Themes: Staples, Utilities, Energy, and Transports. Remain Overweight Emerging Markets $EEM,...

Vermilion Research

Japan Consumer Sector Update: Q4 FY2025 Wrap-Up and FY2026 Outlook

​Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​15 Askul, Coca-Cola B,Tsuruha

• BEST & WORST • Tuesday's best and worst pair is Askul (2678 JP) and Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan (2579 JP)....................

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/​​​​​​05 Fuji, Weathernews, Create SD, Daikin, Coca Cola Japan

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair is home centre Shimachu (8184 JP) for whom a rumoured bid from peer DCM has emerged and diaper...

Campbell Gunn

Food and beverage sector raising prices and driving efficiencies for potential earnings outperformance, while alcoholic beverage makers face...

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 12/15 Askul, Coca-Cola B,Tsuruha

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions - 10/05 Fuji, Weathernews, Create SD, Daikin, Coca Cola Japan