Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

<ul>
<li>Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.</li>
<li>The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). </li>
<li>These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.</li>
</ul>


Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

<p>Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). </p>

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). 

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

<p>Despite a much more mixed market environment, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support a constructive intermediate-term outlook. The bottom line: there is little evidence that suggests a pullback would be anything more than a buying opportunity.</p>

Despite a much more mixed market environment, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support a constructive intermediate-term outlook. The bottom line: there is little evidence that suggests a pullback would be anything more than a buying opportunity.

Defensives Are Worth A Look; Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp, Nikkei 225, STOXX 50 Support Levels Holding

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coca-cola-europacific-partners-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44040:1" rel="noopener">Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP LN)</a>, the leading global Coca-Cola bottler, has requested changing its listing category on the London Stock Exchange, aiming a spot in the FTSE 100.</li>
<li>CCEP would be the 25th largest company of the index, therefore there is a strong likelihood that CCEP could enter the FTSE 100 in the upcoming review.</li>
<li>Passive funds would need roughly 83 trading days of average volume to fully allocate the necessary shares to match the index weighting.</li>
</ul>



Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP LN), the leading global Coca-Cola bottler, has requested changing its listing category on the London Stock Exchange, aiming a spot in the FTSE 100.
CCEP would be the 25th largest company of the index, therefore there is a strong likelihood that CCEP could enter the FTSE 100 in the upcoming review.
Passive funds would need roughly 83 trading days of average volume to fully allocate the necessary shares to match the index weighting.


Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Aiming FTSE 100 Inclusion

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nasdaq-100-stock-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26197:1" rel="noopener">Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)</a> at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.</li>
<li>Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.</li>
<li>Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15273:1" rel="noopener">Microsoft</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There were 6 inclusions and 6 exclusions for the Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) at the annual December reconstitution. Then another ad hoc change was added on top of that.
Impact on the inclusions ranges from 1-8 days of ADV to buy, while the impact on the deletions varies from 0.7-2.6 days of ADV to sell.
Apart from the constituent changes, there are expected to be inflows in Tesla Motors and Broadcom and outflows from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com and NVIDIA.


NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

United Kingdom

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) is a leading consumer goods company and the world's largest independent bottler of Coca-Cola products. The company manufactures, distributes, and sells a diverse portfolio of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages, including popular brands like Coca-Cola, Fanta, Sprite, and Monster Energy. CCEP was formed in 2016 through the merger of three major European bottlers, and expanded in 2021 with the acquisition of Coca-Cola Amatil. Its headquarters are in Uxbridge, England, and the company was founded on May 28, 2016, as Coca-Cola European Partners, rebranding as Coca-Cola Europacific Partners in 2021.

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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP US)

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

Defensives Are Worth A Look; Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp, Nikkei 225, STOXX 50 Support Levels Holding

A review of major global indexes reveals an absence of major breakdowns. We highlight opportunities within defensive Sectors (Real Estate, Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Aiming FTSE 100 Inclusion

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP LN), the leading global Coca-Cola bottler, has requested changing its listing category on the London Stock...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

NASDAQ 100 Index Rebalance: 6 Regular Changes + 1 Adhoc Change; US$37bn to Trade

There are 7 changes at the close on 15 December with an estimated one-way trade of US$18.7bn. Impact on the constituent changes varies from 1-8...

Brian Freitas

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