Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples</li>
<li>We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500, which has remained in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week (11/19/25-11/25/25) when we went neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6824 on SPX and $141.50 on ACWI-US continue to hold. We are buying Energy and Consumer Staples
We are monitoring a few potential concerns--notably the 10-year Treasury yield holding above 4.20%, global Consumer Staples (KXI-US) near 4+ month RS highs, and crude oil prices bottoming.


Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.</li>
<li>This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.</li>
<li>We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (October 2) we discussed that as long as EEM-US is above our important line-in-the-sand at $37, we were buyers on the pullback.
This support level held and EEM-US now displays a bullish 3-month downtrend reversal as the DXY appears to be breaking below $105.70, all bullish signals signaling additional upside-- buy.
We are bullish as long as $36.50-$37 support holds on EEM-US. Our first target is $42, which is 1.5+ year resistance. Remain overweight India, and we're upgrading Poland/Greece to overweight


MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

<ul>
<li>The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.</li>
<li>We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.</li>
</ul>


The DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US) are currently testing their respective multi-month downtrends.
Reversals of these downtrends would signal a bear market rally in progress.
We will need to see more basing, followed by base breakouts, in order to get bullish -- a process that would likely take weeks or months.


Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Poland/Czech/Hungary: Core economies of CEE are enjoying good growth and strength in equities and debt. Growth in exports to EU has boosted outlook</li>
<li>China: The consolidation of power around President Xi for his second 5 year term went further than most expected. Don’t hold your breath for reform as he seems set to tighten Beijing's grip on online activity, media and individuals.</li>
<li>Brazil: The central bank indicated that they will lower rates to all-time low in November in order to save the nascent…</li>
</ul>


Poland/Czech/Hungary: Core economies of CEE are enjoying good growth and strength in equities and debt. Growth in exports to EU has boosted outlook
China: The consolidation of power around President Xi for his second 5 year term went further than most expected. Don’t hold your breath for reform as he seems set to tighten Beijing's grip on online activity, media and individuals.
Brazil: The central bank indicated that they will lower rates to all-time low in November in order to save the nascent…


President Xi Interest in Reform Falls as Power Grows - Impact of Kurdish Moves on Turkish Co.s

Turkey

Coca-Cola Icecek AS bottles and distributes carbonated soft drinks and noncarbonated beverages.

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Coca-Cola Icecek (CCOLA TI)

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Energy; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy

Emerging Markets Leading the Way; Buying Global Energy and Consumer Staples Names; Crude Oil Bottoming -- Buy. Monitoring a few potential concerns

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM Index Reversing 3-Month Downtrend -- Buy. Remain Overweight India, Upgrading Poland & Greece

In our prior EM Strategy (10/2/23) we discussed that, if $EEM is above $37, we were buyers on the pullback. Support held and now EEM displays a...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Still Bearish, But On Watch for Bear Market Rally; Buying Toshiba 6502-JP, Defensive Sectors

The $DAX and Hang Seng are reversing their downtrends while China $MCHI and China Internet $KWEB are currently testing their respective multi-month...

Vermilion Research

President Xi Interest in Reform Falls as Power Grows - Impact of Kurdish Moves on Turkish Co.s

Poland/Czech/Hungary: Core economies of CEE are enjoying good growth and strength in equities and debt. Growth in exports to EU has boosted...

David Riedel

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