European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Aedifica formally filed BCA remedies, agreeing to €300 m Belgian asset disposals; final approval expected late Jan 2026.</li>
<li>Gross spread narrows to ~1.2%, annualized IRR ≈ 4.7%, low interloper risk.</li>
<li>High-Certainty Q1 2026 closing supports long Cofinimmo / short 1.185× Aedifica “carry-to-close” positioning.</li>
</ul>


Aedifica formally filed BCA remedies, agreeing to €300 m Belgian asset disposals; final approval expected late Jan 2026.
Gross spread narrows to ~1.2%, annualized IRR ≈ 4.7%, low interloper risk.
High-Certainty Q1 2026 closing supports long Cofinimmo / short 1.185× Aedifica “carry-to-close” positioning.


Aedifica / Cofinimmo — Remedy Package Clears Path, BCA Decision by January; Spread Tightens to 1.2 %

<ul>
<li>Revised 1.185x exchange ratio unlocks a negotiated, board-backed path to Europe’s largest healthcare REIT, addressing prior valuation pushback and aligning institutional holders.</li>
<li>EPS accretive by 15.6% in 2026, driven by €16m in synergies and stronger funding optionality; upside anchored by operational scale, not leverage.</li>
<li>Spread of ~1.9% (~5.1% annualized) reflects low interloper risk and deal certainty; attractive risk-reward for directional or hedged exposure near NTA.</li>
</ul>


Revised 1.185x exchange ratio unlocks a negotiated, board-backed path to Europe’s largest healthcare REIT, addressing prior valuation pushback and aligning institutional holders.
EPS accretive by 15.6% in 2026, driven by €16m in synergies and stronger funding optionality; upside anchored by operational scale, not leverage.
Spread of ~1.9% (~5.1% annualized) reflects low interloper risk and deal certainty; attractive risk-reward for directional or hedged exposure near NTA.


Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Revised Terms Cement Merger in European Healthcare REITs

<ul>
<li>Cofinimmo’s Board considers the 1.16x exchange offer significantly undervalued, citing EPS dilution, low control premium, and disproportionate benefit to Aedifica shareholders despite strategic rationale and merger synergies.</li>
<li>The combined entity would form Europe’s largest healthcare REIT, benefiting from €12.1bn in assets, ~€710m contractual rents, improved diversification, and potential credit rating uplift from BBB to BBB+.</li>
<li>A revised 1.21 ratio (probability-weighted value of €76.29) remains plausible, supporting a long Cofinimmo/short Aedifica arbitrage trade, though limited current spread suggests cautious sizing given deal uncertainty and downside risk.</li>
</ul>


Cofinimmo’s Board considers the 1.16x exchange offer significantly undervalued, citing EPS dilution, low control premium, and disproportionate benefit to Aedifica shareholders despite strategic rationale and merger synergies.
The combined entity would form Europe’s largest healthcare REIT, benefiting from €12.1bn in assets, ~€710m contractual rents, improved diversification, and potential credit rating uplift from BBB to BBB+.
A revised 1.21 ratio (probability-weighted value of €76.29) remains plausible, supporting a long Cofinimmo/short Aedifica arbitrage trade, though limited current spread suggests cautious sizing given deal uncertainty and downside risk.


Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Belgian REITs in Stalemate Over Merger

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The value realisation of selling cross-holdings should not be contingent on selling your shares to someone else too cheaply but that is exactly what Toyota is proposing here.</li>
<li>OCBC is doing the right thing. Although a 17.8% bump in terms for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a>'s minorities is probably not enough to dislodge Palliser.</li>
<li>Cosette has lodged a termination notice, which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> rejects. It's anyone's guess whether this saga concludes with a price cut; or Cosette walking.</li>
</ul>


The value realisation of selling cross-holdings should not be contingent on selling your shares to someone else too cheaply but that is exactly what Toyota is proposing here.
OCBC is doing the right thing. Although a 17.8% bump in terms for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)'s minorities is probably not enough to dislodge Palliser.
Cosette has lodged a termination notice, which Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) rejects. It's anyone's guess whether this saga concludes with a price cut; or Cosette walking.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Indust. Great Eastern, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Elect., New World

<ul>
<li>Glass Lewis has now joined ISS in recommending holders vote against the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> merger, presumably as it relates to the ratio.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, ASIC AND Cosette have effectively signed off on the Scheme Booklet's veracity. That should be assuring to investors. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>'s Scheme comfortable got up - despite a last minute hiccup - and poor governance - to adjourn the meeting.</li>
</ul>


Glass Lewis has now joined ISS in recommending holders vote against the Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) merger, presumably as it relates to the ratio.

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ASIC AND Cosette have effectively signed off on the Scheme Booklet's veracity. That should be assuring to investors. 

Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)'s Scheme comfortable got up - despite a last minute hiccup - and poor governance - to adjourn the meeting.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia Merger, Mayne Pharma, Canvst, Insignia Financial

Belgium

Cofinimmo SANV is a Belgian real estate company that specialises in rental property. The Company's main investment segments are office property, care homes and distribution property networks. Cofinimmo is an independent company, which manages its properties in-house.

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Cofinimmo SA (COFB BB)

Aedifica / Cofinimmo — Remedy Package Clears Path, BCA Decision by January; Spread Tightens to 1.2 %

Aedifica–Cofinimmo merger advances with Belgian clearance likely by Jan 2026; €300 m divestment pact cuts risk, tightening spread to ~1.2% for a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Revised Terms Cement Merger in European Healthcare REITs

Aedifica and Cofinimmo’s revised merger creates a €12bn healthcare REIT. Accretive, synergistic, and Board-backed, the deal offers modest upside...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Aedifica/Cofinimmo: Belgian REITs in Stalemate Over Merger

Aedifica’s bid for Cofinimmo offers strategic logic but limited upside at current terms. Market pricing reflects a potential revision; risk-reward...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Indust. Great Eastern, Mayne Pharma, Shibaura Elect., New World

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Tsuruha/Welcia Merger, Mayne Pharma, Canvst, Insignia Financial

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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