Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>While high volatility and the magic of Twitter may break cryptocurrency media coverage trends faster than they are identified, the exponentially growing volume of content on the topic has made text mining an increasingly robust tool to help quantify key themes in the space</li>
<li>Despite recent volatility, our data suggests sentiment on cryptocurrency institutional adoption continues to trend positively</li>
<li>We saw a +6x STDEV increase in coverage of ESG aspects of crypto and a +4x STDEV increase in coverage of crypto regulatory topics following the Elon Musk tweets of May 12-13 and China's crackdown; frequency of coverage of these topics has become the most dominant factor at -80% correlation with BTC recently </li>
<li>After surging in April on new ETF launches in Canada, sentiment on cryptocurrency ETFs/ETPs turned negative following "market disruption" warnings issued by Canadian ETF managers during last week's selloff</li>
<li>Sentiment on the cryptocurrency-as-store-of-value narrative took a dive in recent weeks, after hitting record high in April; nonetheless, the less-reliable defensive factors (store of value/inflation hedge) have been losing momentum in media coverage for some time, while a refocused view of cryptocurrency as a speculative vehicle is trending to new highs at +5x STDEVs</li>
<li>Though unadjusted sentiment data is extremely volatile, our daily tracking of Elon Musk coverage in a crypto context is back to a neutral reading for the first time since 5/12, having bottomed at -1.5x STDEVs earlier in the month</li>
<li>Net-net, while the data highlights elevated regulatory and ESG concerns, institutional adoption is likely to continue amid optimism around innovative carbon footprint reduction solutions for BTC; a reframing of the narrative away from defensive notions of "digital gold" would be a healthy development, and appears to be already underway</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities.</div>


While high volatility and the magic of Twitter may break cryptocurrency media coverage trends faster than they are identified, the exponentially growing volume of content on the topic has made text mining an increasingly robust tool to help quantify key themes in the space
Despite recent volatility, our data suggests sentiment on cryptocurrency institutional adoption continues to trend positively
We saw a +6x STDEV increase in coverage of ESG aspects of crypto and a +4x STDEV increase in coverage of crypto regulatory topics following the Elon Musk tweets of May 12-13 and China's crackdown; frequency of coverage of these topics has become the most dominant factor at -80% correlation with BTC recently 
After surging in April on new ETF launches in Canada, sentiment on cryptocurrency ETFs/ETPs turned negative following "market disruption" warnings issued by Canadian ETF managers during last week's selloff
Sentiment on the cryptocurrency-as-store-of-value narrative took a dive in recent weeks, after hitting record high in April; nonetheless, the less-reliable defensive factors (store of value/inflation hedge) have been losing momentum in media coverage for some time, while a refocused view of cryptocurrency as a speculative vehicle is trending to new highs at +5x STDEVs
Though unadjusted sentiment data is extremely volatile, our daily tracking of Elon Musk coverage in a crypto context is back to a neutral reading for the first time since 5/12, having bottomed at -1.5x STDEVs earlier in the month
Net-net, while the data highlights elevated regulatory and ESG concerns, institutional adoption is likely to continue amid optimism around innovative carbon footprint reduction solutions for BTC; a reframing of the narrative away from defensive notions of "digital gold" would be a healthy development, and appears to be already underway
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tools text-mine the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities.

TMI Snapshot:  Recent Crypto Media Coverage & Sentiment Trends Through the Lens of Text Mining

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight">
In this insight, we revisit our valuation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US)</a> post the Bitcoin plunge. Among many calls on IPOs/direct listings this year, Coinbase has been our most bearish call.
On the first day of direct listing, Coinbase's share price reached as high as $112 billion ($429.5). Coinbase's share price has fallen to $224.8 per share (market cap of $58.9 billion). Although Coinbase's share price has fallen more than 40% since the highs in the first day of trading, we believe there is a further downside risk to this story. Our base valuation suggests a further 30%+ downside risk to Coinbase from current levels. 
</div>


In this insight, we revisit our valuation of Coinbase (COIN US) post the Bitcoin plunge. Among many calls on IPOs/direct listings this year, Coinbase has been our most bearish call.
On the first day of direct listing, Coinbase's share price reached as high as $112 billion ($429.5). Coinbase's share price has fallen to $224.8 per share (market cap of $58.9 billion). Although Coinbase's share price has fallen more than 40% since the highs in the first day of trading, we believe there is a further downside risk to this story. Our base valuation suggests a further 30%+ downside risk to Coinbase from current levels. 


Revisiting Our Valuation of Coinbase Post Bitcoin Plunge

Equity Capital Markets

Founded in 2003 by the CEO Anthony Casalena, Squarespace is getting ready to complete its direct public listing on May 19 on the New York Stock Exchange. Squarespace raised $300 million ($68.42 per share) in March 2021 from investors including Tiger Global, D1 Capital Partners, and Fidelity Management &amp; Research Company, valuing the company at nearly<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-squarespace-funding-idUSKBN2B832O" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> $10 billion. </a>Other major investors of the company include Accel, Index Ventures, and General Atlantic. Squarespace joins a list of numerous technology companies that have become public through the direct listing route, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roblox-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29697:1" rel="noopener">ROBLOX Corp (RBLX US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US)</a>. Squarespace's shareholders have registered to sell about 40.4 million common shares with the CEO Anthony Caslena holding a 68.2% stake. Squarespace is a one-stop-shop platform for websites creation, domains, e-commerce, and marketing tools for companies and organizations to manage their social media presence. The company generated sales of $621.2 million in 2020, up 28.1% YoY. Its sales growth accelerated by 31.3% YoY to $179.7 million in 1Q 2021. Although the company benefited from higher sales and gross margins, its operating margins declined from 12.7% in 2019 to 6.5% in 2020, which was caused by higher R&amp;D and sales &amp; marketing expenses.

Founded in 2003 by the CEO Anthony Casalena, Squarespace is getting ready to complete its direct public listing on May 19 on the New York Stock Exchange. Squarespace raised $300 million ($68.42 per share) in March 2021 from investors including Tiger Global, D1 Capital Partners, and Fidelity Management &amp; Research Company, valuing the company at nearly $10 billion. Other major investors of the company include Accel, Index Ventures, and General Atlantic. Squarespace joins a list of numerous technology companies that have become public through the direct listing route, including Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US), ROBLOX Corp (RBLX US), and Coinbase (COIN US). Squarespace's shareholders have registered to sell about 40.4 million common shares with the CEO Anthony Caslena holding a 68.2% stake. Squarespace is a one-stop-shop platform for websites creation, domains, e-commerce, and marketing tools for companies and organizations to manage their social media presence. The company generated sales of $621.2 million in 2020, up 28.1% YoY. Its sales growth accelerated by 31.3% YoY to $179.7 million in 1Q 2021. Although the company benefited from higher sales and gross margins, its operating margins declined from 12.7% in 2019 to 6.5% in 2020, which was caused by higher R&amp;D and sales &amp; marketing expenses.

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Kakao's founder, Kim Beom-Su, is looking sell about US$450m worth of shares. In this note, we will share our thoughts and run the deal through our ECM framework.  We have covered earlier placements in:<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-corp-placement-a-quick-trade-post-solid-4q-results" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29848" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp Placement - A Quick Trade Post Solid 4Q Results</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kakao-corp-placement-poor-track-and-seems-to-be-an-unexpected-deal" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:9804" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp Placement - Poor Track Record and Seems to Be an Unexpected Deal</a> </li>
</ul>

Kakao's founder, Kim Beom-Su, is looking sell about US$450m worth of shares. In this note, we will share our thoughts and run the deal through our ECM framework.  We have covered earlier placements in:

Kakao Corp Placement - A Quick Trade Post Solid 4Q Results 

Kakao Corp Placement - Poor Track Record and Seems to Be an Unexpected Deal 


Kakao Corp Placement - Selldown by Founder

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Coinbase Global  / Equity Capital Markets

We previously showed that Coinbase’s revenue was highly correlated with average bitcoin prices during the quarter in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coinbase-ipo-why-you-can-justify-a-100bn-valuation-if-you-want" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coinbase IPO – Why You Can Justify a $100bn Valuation… If You Want | Smartkarma</a>. We have now improved correlations further by incorporating Ethereum prices. Based on these correlations and the also tight correlations between revenue and OP we provide investors with some simple theoretical stock price calculations.

We previously showed that Coinbase’s revenue was highly correlated with average bitcoin prices during the quarter in Coinbase IPO – Why You Can Justify a $100bn Valuation… If You Want | Smartkarma. We have now improved correlations further by incorporating Ethereum prices. Based on these correlations and the also tight correlations between revenue and OP we provide investors with some simple theoretical stock price calculations.

Coinbase DPO – A Guide to Implied Prices Based on Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices

United States

Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial solutions. The Company offers platform to buy and sell cryptocurrencies. Coinbase Global serves clients worldwide.

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Coinbase Global (COIN US)

TMI Snapshot: Recent Crypto Media Coverage & Sentiment Trends Through the Lens of Text Mining

We text-mine media coverage of cryptocurrencies to quantify key sub-themes; institutional adoption sentiment has remained positive throughout the...

Elan Gore

Revisiting Our Valuation of Coinbase Post Bitcoin Plunge

In this insight, we revisit our valuation of Coinbase (COIN US) post the Bitcoin plunge. Among many calls on IPOs/direct listings this year,...

Douglas Kim

Squarespace Direct Listing Preview

Squarespace is getting ready to complete its direct public listing on May 19 on the New York Stock Exchange. In this insight, we provide the key...

Douglas Kim

Kakao Corp Placement - Selldown by Founder

Kakao's founder, Kim Beom-Su, is looking sell about US$450m worth of shares. In this note, we will share our thoughts and run the deal through our...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Coinbase DPO – A Guide to Implied Prices Based on Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices

Based on bitcoin and ethereum prices and our derived correlations for Coinbase's revenue and expenses we provide estimates of Coinbase's...

Mio Kato

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