Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Halfway through the review period, we see 6 potential changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> using the current index methodology.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.26% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 24bn. There will be more than 2x ADV to sell on nearly all deletes.</li>
<li>There is a possibility of an index methodology change, but no news for the last 4 months could indicate pushback from users or more stocks added to the F&amp;O market.</li>
</ul>


Halfway through the review period, we see 6 potential changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) using the current index methodology.
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.26% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 24bn. There will be more than 2x ADV to sell on nearly all deletes.
There is a possibility of an index methodology change, but no news for the last 4 months could indicate pushback from users or more stocks added to the F&amp;O market.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & Big Turnover

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Asian Paints: APNT’s revenue growth flat-lined in Q2 (YoY) at INR 84.8bn, 4.4% below our expectation (HSIE: INR88.7bn)</li><li>Decorative business clocked 6/1.1% volume/value growth in Q2FY24. The mix was economy range-heavy</li><li>Urban markets (high-single-digit growth) continued to outpace rural centres</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asian Paints: APNT’s revenue growth flat-lined in Q2 (YoY) at INR 84.8bn, 4.4% below our expectation (HSIE: INR88.7bn)Decorative business clocked 6/1.1% volume/value growth in Q2FY24. The mix was economy range-heavyUrban markets (high-single-digit growth) continued to outpace rural centresContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Shriram Finance, Colgate Palmolive, Westlife Foodworld, Symphony

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Q2FY24 results were ahead of our estimates. The company’s revenue grew by 6.1% YoY (Domestic sales grew by 6.6%), while volume stood flat.</li><li>Toothpaste segment grew in high single-digit, while toothbrush and exports dragged volumes down. The company doubled down on Colgate Strong Teeth re-launch by expanding its reach/availability.</li><li>Colgate Max Fresh was also re-launched, which saw strong growth in Q2. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q2FY24 results were ahead of our estimates. The company’s revenue grew by 6.1% YoY (Domestic sales grew by 6.6%), while volume stood flat.Toothpaste segment grew in high single-digit, while toothbrush and exports dragged volumes down. The company doubled down on Colgate Strong Teeth re-launch by expanding its reach/availability.Colgate Max Fresh was also re-launched, which saw strong growth in Q2. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Colgate Palmolive (India) Ltd - Pricing Drove the Growth; Maintain HOLD

Kurita Water Industries / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> last week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> stops trading this week and should be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> CDIs in the ASX indices.</li>
<li>Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)/ Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replaced United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) last week.

Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) stops trading this week and should be replaced by Newmont Mining (NEM US) CDIs in the ASX indices.
Another week of ETF outflows for China with the largest outflows from trackers benchmarked to the CSI 1000 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over the last few weeks, companies in India have been disclosing their shareholding pattern as of end-September. There are a few companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next couple of months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>We find 9 stocks where there could be inflows with passive trackers needing to buy over 1 day of ADV on most stocks.</li>
</ul>


Over the last few weeks, companies in India have been disclosing their shareholding pattern as of end-September. There are a few companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next couple of months resulting in action from passive trackers.
We find 9 stocks where there could be inflows with passive trackers needing to buy over 1 day of ADV on most stocks.


India - Free Float Changes to Drive Passive Inflows

India

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. manufactures consumer products in the oral care and body care area. The Company's products include soaps, cosmetics, toilet preparations, toothpaste, toothbrushes, shaving brushes, and glycerin.

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Colgate Palmolive (India) (CLGT IN)

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & Big Turnover

There should be 6 changes to the NEXT50 in March. NSE Indices has yet to announce next steps in the consultation that will limit membership to FnO...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Shriram Finance, Colgate Palmolive, Westlife Foodworld, Symphony

Decorative business clocked 6/1.1% volume/value growth in Q2FY24. The mix was economy range-heavy. Urban markets (high-single-digit growth)...

HDFC Securities

Colgate Palmolive (India) Ltd - Pricing Drove the Growth; Maintain HOLD

Q2FY24 results were ahead of our estimates. The company’s revenue grew by 6.1% YoY (Domestic sales grew by 6.6%), while volume stood flat.

Axis Direct

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, Liontown, J&T Express, JP/IN Positioning, IndusInd Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

India - Free Float Changes to Drive Passive Inflows

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

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