Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

Collegium Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>COLL has yet to issue their annual revenue forecast after three consecutive years of providing such guidance, leading us to assume 2022 could be challenging than current consensus estimates imply</li>
<li>XtampzaER revenue declined in third quarter 2021 with COLL facing difficulty in getting physicians to switch prescriptions. The slowdown in XtampzaER revenue has been the core of our investment thesis </li>
<li>COLL has a balance sheet liability of $191.7 million related to rebates, returns, and discounts. This liability has grown faster than revenue</li>
</ul>


COLL has yet to issue their annual revenue forecast after three consecutive years of providing such guidance, leading us to assume 2022 could be challenging than current consensus estimates imply
XtampzaER revenue declined in third quarter 2021 with COLL facing difficulty in getting physicians to switch prescriptions. The slowdown in XtampzaER revenue has been the core of our investment thesis 
COLL has a balance sheet liability of $191.7 million related to rebates, returns, and discounts. This liability has grown faster than revenue


<ul type="disc"><li>
Collegium Pharmaceuticals (COLL) announced it would have difficulty in meeting its revenue projections for Xtampza ER when it reported second quarter results. The Company was citing marketing challenges brought on from COVID-19. Non-exclusive payors are not prescribing Xtampza ER as much as forecast.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>Earlier this year we had highlighted how the DEA had reinstituted quota for Schedule II opiate and opioid medication.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>Second quarter revenue was below consensus estimates and COLL has lowered their forecast for Xtampza ER for the rest of the year.</li></ul> <ul type="disc"><li>We have been covering COLL for a year with a negative bias towards its ability to grow Xtampza ER revenue. It has been a slower process than what was expected when we first initiated coverage. We do not believe COVID-19 is playing as much of a factor to the erosion in expectations as COLL’s management states.</li></ul>


Collegium Pharmaceuticals (COLL) announced it would have difficulty in meeting its revenue projections for Xtampza ER when it reported second quarter results. The Company was citing marketing challenges brought on from COVID-19. Non-exclusive payors are not prescribing Xtampza ER as much as forecast. Earlier this year we had highlighted how the DEA had reinstituted quota for Schedule II opiate and opioid medication. Second quarter revenue was below consensus estimates and COLL has lowered their forecast for Xtampza ER for the rest of the year. We have been covering COLL for a year with a negative bias towards its ability to grow Xtampza ER revenue. It has been a slower process than what was expected when we first initiated coverage. We do not believe COVID-19 is playing as much of a factor to the erosion in expectations as COLL’s management states.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

United States

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc. offers pharmaceutical products. The Company develops and commercializes prescription and over-the-counter pharmaceuticals for the treatment of central nervous system, respiratory, and skin related disorders.

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Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL US)

COLL: Risks Abundant with No Guidance

COLL has yet to issue its annual guidance after three consecutive years. We believe this could highlight a series of challenges COLL has been...

BWS Financial Inc

COLL: The Slow Unwind

COLL missed Q2 revenue estimates and reduced its revenue forecast for Xtampza ER. We continue to expect further erosion in Xtampza ER revenue as...

BWS Financial Inc

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

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