Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Daejoo Electronic Materials / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The possibility of experiencing a CFD margin call is a genuine and persistent concern. Even a small trigger causes selling pressure to intensify and results in a rapid downward trend.</li>
<li>The counter that the local market is closely monitoring is JPM. The selling pressure from the JPM counter since May 8th has exhibited an abnormal pattern. </li>
<li>Eight names are screened. They are KOSPI 200/KOSDAQ 150 constituents with JPM's net selling volume to SO being 0.2% or higher, and a margin-equity ratio of 3% or higher.</li>
</ul>


The possibility of experiencing a CFD margin call is a genuine and persistent concern. Even a small trigger causes selling pressure to intensify and results in a rapid downward trend.
The counter that the local market is closely monitoring is JPM. The selling pressure from the JPM counter since May 8th has exhibited an abnormal pattern. 
Eight names are screened. They are KOSPI 200/KOSDAQ 150 constituents with JPM's net selling volume to SO being 0.2% or higher, and a margin-equity ratio of 3% or higher.


The Core of CFD Margin Call Risk May Lie in the JPM Counter, Not SG: Potentially Infected Names

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.</li>
<li>There are potential changes to some of the indices and then there are close changes that will result in big flows if they eventuate.</li>
<li>The March rebalance saw some funky moves on the stocks that had big flows and we could see more of that at the September rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.
There are potential changes to some of the indices and then there are close changes that will result in big flows if they eventuate.
The March rebalance saw some funky moves on the stocks that had big flows and we could see more of that at the September rebalance.


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential & Close Changes in September

<ul>
<li>Two pairs of constituent changes marked in squares in INTERNET and GAME may offer meaningful trading opportunities: Seojin System IN / Ahnlab OUT and Com2us IN / Doubleugames OUT.</li>
<li>Along with TIGER ETF, stealth index funds follow these indices. So, constituent changes in INTERNET and GAME create a flow impact of 0.3~0.6x DTV, even not in the Top 3.</li>
<li>Also, INTERNET and GAME have less passive flow impact degradation risk due to momentum trading flows compared to BATTERY and BIO.</li>
</ul>


Two pairs of constituent changes marked in squares in INTERNET and GAME may offer meaningful trading opportunities: Seojin System IN / Ahnlab OUT and Com2us IN / Doubleugames OUT.
Along with TIGER ETF, stealth index funds follow these indices. So, constituent changes in INTERNET and GAME create a flow impact of 0.3~0.6x DTV, even not in the Top 3.
Also, INTERNET and GAME have less passive flow impact degradation risk due to momentum trading flows compared to BATTERY and BIO.


Overlooked Trading Angle in K-New Deal Rebalancing Event: Two LONG SHORT Pairs to Watch

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<ul>
<li>On 7 March, Kakao Corp (035720 KS) announced a tender offer of up to 35% of outstanding shares of SM Entertainment at 150,000 won per share.</li>
<li>We believe that this will be a successful tender offer and the share price of SM Entertainment is likely to surge to near 150,000 won per share. </li>
<li>The minority shareholders of SM Entertainment are cheering on as its share price appreciation will be nearly 96% from end of 2022 to the tender offer price of 150,000 won. </li>
</ul>


On 7 March, Kakao Corp (035720 KS) announced a tender offer of up to 35% of outstanding shares of SM Entertainment at 150,000 won per share.
We believe that this will be a successful tender offer and the share price of SM Entertainment is likely to surge to near 150,000 won per share. 
The minority shareholders of SM Entertainment are cheering on as its share price appreciation will be nearly 96% from end of 2022 to the tender offer price of 150,000 won. 


Kakao Announces a Tender Offer of SM Entertainment at 150,000 Won Per Share

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.</li>
<li>We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical (003670 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>; the largest outflows are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW (032500 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended on 31 January, changes will be announced in the next few days and implemented at the close of trading on 9 March.
We forecast one add/delete for the Secondary Battery Index and Game Index, and a couple of adds/deletes for the BBIG Index. There will be a lot of capping changes.
The largest inflows are expected on Posco Chemical (003670 KS) and Douzone Bizon (012510 KS); the largest outflows are expected on SK Innovation (096770 KS) and KMW (032500 KS).


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

South Korea

Com2uS Corporation develops and markets game software based on digital convergence contents for internet mobile application.  The Company provides its products to domestic and overseas markets such as Asia, Europe, and North America.

Price Gauge
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Com2us Corp (078340 KS)

The Core of CFD Margin Call Risk May Lie in the JPM Counter, Not SG: Potentially Infected Names

This core of CFD margin call risk may lie in the JPM counter, not SG. This post presents eight names that are targetable for short-selling.

Sanghyun Park

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential & Close Changes in September

There were big moves on stocks that were changes at the March rebalance. We take a look at expected and close changes at the September rebalance....

Brian Freitas

Overlooked Trading Angle in K-New Deal Rebalancing Event: Two LONG SHORT Pairs to Watch

This post uncovers the overlooked trading angle in the K-New Deal index rebalancing event and presents two pairs of LONG SHORT setups that we...

Sanghyun Park

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

We forecast one change to the Secondary Battery and Game indices and two changes to the BBIG Index. There are big flows and impact on a few stocks....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Core of CFD Margin Call Risk May Lie in the JPM Counter, Not SG: Potentially Infected Names

This core of CFD margin call risk may lie in the JPM counter, not SG. This post presents eight names that are targetable for short-selling.

Sanghyun Park

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential & Close Changes in September

There were big moves on stocks that were changes at the March rebalance. We take a look at expected and close changes at the September rebalance....

Brian Freitas

Overlooked Trading Angle in K-New Deal Rebalancing Event: Two LONG SHORT Pairs to Watch

This post uncovers the overlooked trading angle in the K-New Deal index rebalancing event and presents two pairs of LONG SHORT setups that we...

Sanghyun Park

Kakao Announces a Tender Offer of SM Entertainment at 150,000 Won Per Share

On 7 March, Kakao Corp (035720 KS) announced a tender offer of up to 35% of outstanding shares of SM Entertainment at 150,000 won per share. We...

Douglas Kim

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Flows as Announcement Looms

We forecast one change to the Secondary Battery and Game indices and two changes to the BBIG Index. There are big flows and impact on a few stocks....

Brian Freitas