EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. </p><p>I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.</p>

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears
The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.

The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of…


Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

<p>A US election fought under moderately favourable economic conditions, with a Republican electorate divided and openly unhappy with its standard-bearer, should normally seal the presidency for the Democrat, in this case former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.  Yet this is anything but a ‘normal’ political cycle in the United States.</p><p>Control Risks believes Clinton will be the next president of the United States, the first female ever to serve in that position. But a number of eye-widening firsts in this presidential contest obligates us to take very seriously the possibility that her Republican rival, Donald Trump, can overcome his disadvantages and wind up in the White House.</p><p>Beyond a core of about 20% of the electorate on each side that hold favourable views of their candidate of choice, it appears that for the most of the electorate, the more they see of either candidate, the less inclined they are to vote for him or her. Turnout is likely to be very low.<br><br>In a recent series of articles on the US elections, <a href="https://www.controlrisks.com/" target="_blank">Control Risks</a>' chief US political risks analyst, Michael Moran, looks at both scenarios - a Clinton presidency and a Trump presidency.</p>

A US election fought under moderately favourable economic conditions, with a Republican electorate divided and openly unhappy with its standard-bearer, should normally seal the presidency for the Democrat, in this case former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.  Yet this is anything but a ‘normal’ political cycle in the United States.Control Risks believes Clinton will be the next president of the United States, the first female ever to serve in that position. But a number of eye-widening firsts in this presidential contest obligates us to take very seriously the possibility that her Republican rival, Donald Trump, can overcome his disadvantages and wind up in the White House.Beyond a core of about 20% of the electorate on each side that hold favourable views of their candidate of choice, it appears that for the most of the electorate, the more they see of either candidate, the less inclined they are to vote for him or her. Turnout is likely to be very low.  In a recent series of articles on the US elections, Control Risks' chief US political risks analyst, Michael Moran, looks at both scenarios - a Clinton presidency and a Trump presidency.

2016 US Elections Scenario Two: Donald Trump Wins

2016 US Elections Scenario One: Hillary Clinton Wins

<p>Whatever the outcome of the US election, President Barack Obama's departure in early 2017 will present renewed challenges for Asia Pacific trade. While the much-awaited Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is still expected to pass, strong public support for increased protectionism, and the general rhetoric coming out of the US presidential campaign, hints at broader trade and currency risks for Asia Pacific, in particular for those companies reliant on global supply chains for manufacturing. Michael Moran from Control Risks reviews whether the tides have turned against free trade.</p>

Whatever the outcome of the US election, President Barack Obama's departure in early 2017 will present renewed challenges for Asia Pacific trade. While the much-awaited Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is still expected to pass, strong public support for increased protectionism, and the general rhetoric coming out of the US presidential campaign, hints at broader trade and currency risks for Asia Pacific, in particular for those companies reliant on global supply chains for manufacturing. Michael Moran from Control Risks reviews whether the tides have turned against free trade.

United States

Comcast Corporation provides media and television broadcasting services. The Company offers video streaming, television programming, high-speed internet, cable television, and communication services. Comcast serves customers worldwide.

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Comcast Corp Class A (CMCSA US)

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be...

Emad Mostaque

Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were...

Sean Maher

2016 US Elections Scenario Two: Donald Trump Wins

A US election fought under moderately favourable economic conditions, with a Republican electorate divided and openly unhappy with its...

Control Risks

2016 US Elections Scenario One: Hillary Clinton Wins

A US election fought under moderately favourable economic conditions, with a Republican electorate divided and openly unhappy with its...

Control Risks

On Trade, An Era Is Ending

Whatever the outcome of the US election, President Barack Obama's departure in early 2017 will present renewed challenges for Asia Pacific trade....

Control Risks

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