TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel warned that conditions outlined in 1Q22 have worsened, key to see what AMD says tomorrow.</li>
<li>Netflix - Roku rumor doesn't make much sense, we think its more likely Roku cut off insider selling because it is looking to acquire Starz.</li>
<li>Netflix churn is rising among longtime customers - going to ad-supported Peacock and Paramount. We think another guide down is coming in 2Q22.</li>
</ul>


Intel warned that conditions outlined in 1Q22 have worsened, key to see what AMD says tomorrow.
Netflix - Roku rumor doesn't make much sense, we think its more likely Roku cut off insider selling because it is looking to acquire Starz.
Netflix churn is rising among longtime customers - going to ad-supported Peacock and Paramount. We think another guide down is coming in 2Q22.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Comcast Corp Class A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Comcast had a decent quarter with revenues being driven well by their cable division which continues to be a standout performer delivering more than 7% growth in revenue.</li><li>For the last decade, the small business has led to the growth of the company, but it is significantly penetrated the enterprise and mid-market segments.</li><li>The Xfinity Mobile also delivered a solid growth in the last quarter.</li></ul>

Comcast had a decent quarter with revenues being driven well by their cable division which continues to be a standout performer delivering more than 7% growth in revenue.For the last decade, the small business has led to the growth of the company, but it is significantly penetrated the enterprise and mid-market segments.The Xfinity Mobile also delivered a solid growth in the last quarter.

Comcast Corp.: Cable Network & Peacock Upside

<ul>
<li>Netflix management came off as unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years.</li>
<li>Competitive responses sounded half baked: increasing price to deter password sharing and launching advertising tiers...in 2 years?</li>
<li>The viability of the longterm growth algorithm and 10 year DCFs that Netflix investors have leaned on for years has been rightfully vaporized. </li>
</ul>


Netflix management came off as unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years.
Competitive responses sounded half baked: increasing price to deter password sharing and launching advertising tiers...in 2 years?
The viability of the longterm growth algorithm and 10 year DCFs that Netflix investors have leaned on for years has been rightfully vaporized. 


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New data from Deloitte shows US streaming subscription churn is 35% and over 50% for younger demographics. Whoa!</li>
<li>Competition for attention and competition for the wallet are causes, a combination of the volume of streaming services combined with social media, gaming, and UGC....many of which are free. </li>
<li>The LT takeaway is streaming services likely have to rely on free-ad supported tiers to retain customers. Higher customer acquisition costs and lower multiple ad revenues not good for streamers.</li>
</ul>


New data from Deloitte shows US streaming subscription churn is 35% and over 50% for younger demographics. Whoa!
Competition for attention and competition for the wallet are causes, a combination of the volume of streaming services combined with social media, gaming, and UGC....many of which are free. 
The LT takeaway is streaming services likely have to rely on free-ad supported tiers to retain customers. Higher customer acquisition costs and lower multiple ad revenues not good for streamers.


<ul>
<li>Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.</li>
<li>The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.</li>
<li>Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs</li>
</ul>


Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.
The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.
Disney's streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs


Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

United States

Comcast Corporation provides media and television broadcasting services. The Company offers video streaming, television programming, high-speed internet, cable television, and communication services. Comcast serves customers worldwide.

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Comcast Corp Class A (CMCSA US)

TMT Quick Hits: INTC/AMD, NFLX/ROKU

Intel's overly bullish 2H guidance from last quarter is already getting talked down. Netflix-Roku rumor is unlikely...and only thing that could...

Aaron Gabin

Comcast Corp.: Cable Network & Peacock Upside

Comcast had a decent quarter with revenues being driven well by their cable division which continues to be a standout performer delivering more...

Baptista Research

Netflix 1Q22: Willfull Ignorance

Netflix management seemed unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years. Competitive...

Aaron Gabin

Streaming's New Hamster Wheel

New data shows US streaming subscription churn is 35% and over 50% for younger demographics. To compete, streamers will have to rely more on free...

Aaron Gabin

Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

Disney's recent announcement of an ad-supported tier being launched for Disney+ strikes us as a questionable strategic choice that indicates market...

Aaron Gabin

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