Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 14th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 14th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD49.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 14th): CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Index Rebalance

Virgin Australia Holdings / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia (VAH AU)</a> IPO in June 2025. All of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.</li>
<li>Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. All of Bain’s stake could be released from escrow soon.
Virgin Australia (VA) is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Bain Set for Full and Final US$600m Release

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically</li>
<li>Australia's banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly</li>
<li>There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ</li>
</ul>


Bankruptcy data through May suggests that credit metrics are worsening dramatically
Australia's banks report on an interim basis, providing only trading updates quarterly
There are very specific concerns with worsening credit metrics for Suncorp and ANZ


Australian Banks - High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims

<ul>
<li>ACCC issued a new letter asking ANZ for 2 more weeks, for its decision to takeover Suncorp</li>
<li>ACCC appears to be taking seriously the Stark Report which is very much against takeover</li>
<li>Specifically, the ACCC indicates it needs more time to review ANZ's rebuttal to the report </li>
</ul>


ACCC issued a new letter asking ANZ for 2 more weeks, for its decision to takeover Suncorp
ACCC appears to be taking seriously the Stark Report which is very much against takeover
Specifically, the ACCC indicates it needs more time to review ANZ's rebuttal to the report 


ANZ/Suncorp - Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval

<ul>
<li>There is tremendous growth in Australian insolvencies, which is not simple a base effect</li>
<li>Construction insolvencies are up 75% YoY through mid June, the worst of any sector</li>
<li>NAB shows +17x exposures risk-weighted at 75%, PD +84% in qualifying revolving retail</li>
</ul>


There is tremendous growth in Australian insolvencies, which is not simple a base effect
Construction insolvencies are up 75% YoY through mid June, the worst of any sector
NAB shows +17x exposures risk-weighted at 75%, PD +84% in qualifying revolving retail


Australia Banks - Construction Insolvencies +75%, A Look at NAB Risk Weights, PD

Australia

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides banking, life insurance, and related services for individuals, small businesses and medium sized commercial enterprises. The Bank provides corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking and stock broking and funds management such as superannuation product.

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 14th): CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in CSL, South32, Iress, Computershare, Coles.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Aequitas: Virgin Australia IPO Lockup - Bain Set for Full and Final US$600m Release

Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia (VAH AU) IPO in June 2025. All of Bain’s stake could be...

Sumeet Singh

Australian Banks - High Frequency Data Suggests Major Deterioration Not Yet Visible In Interims

High frequency data in Australia may be more valuable than many other regions, since banks only report on an interim basis. The data is not good,...

Daniel Tabbush

ANZ/Suncorp - Another ACCC Deal Delay, Increasingly Seems Like It Will Not Get Approval

Further delay by ACCC in its consideration for the ANZ takeover of Suncorp, appears to rest on Stark report, showing how there would be significant...

Daniel Tabbush

Australia Banks - Construction Insolvencies +75%, A Look at NAB Risk Weights, PD

Australia insolvencies are surging, especially in construction, manufacturing, hotels & restaurants. Risk is higher credit costs and bad loans for...

Daniel Tabbush

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