Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

Virgin Australia Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Virgin Australia ((VGN)) is back for another go (which brings the name into question), having entered administration as a result of covid before being revived under private equity ownership.</li>
<li>Australia's second airline has returned to listed life with a simplified portfolio and strategy that, Ord Minnett believes, should resonate well with investors attracted to the relatively high quality/low risk Australian domestic aviation market.</li>
<li>The broker sees a compelling earnings outlook into FY26, with relatively stable fares, falling fuel expenses, and transformation benefits. </li>
</ul>


Virgin Australia ((VGN)) is back for another go (which brings the name into question), having entered administration as a result of covid before being revived under private equity ownership.
Australia's second airline has returned to listed life with a simplified portfolio and strategy that, Ord Minnett believes, should resonate well with investors attracted to the relatively high quality/low risk Australian domestic aviation market.
The broker sees a compelling earnings outlook into FY26, with relatively stable fares, falling fuel expenses, and transformation benefits. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Virgin Australia Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).
Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our thoughts on valuations in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Virgin Australia IPO Trading - Flying into Oil and Recent Air Crash Headwinds

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU)</a> is looking to raise A$685m in a secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.27bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 24 June.</li>
<li>Bain Capital and management are escrowed on their shares till early 2026. There is no escrow for Qatar Airways, but they have indicated that their shareholding is strategic.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU)</a> could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.</li>
</ul>



Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) is looking to raise A$685m in a secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.27bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 24 June.
Bain Capital and management are escrowed on their shares till early 2026. There is no escrow for Qatar Airways, but they have indicated that their shareholding is strategic.

Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.


Virgin Australia (VGN AU): Touch & Go for Index Inclusion

<ul>
<li>Bain Capital is looking to raise around US$440m via selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).</a>
</li>
<li>Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the company’s past performance and provide our thoughts on valuations.</li>
</ul>


Bain Capital is looking to raise around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU).

Virgin Australia is the second largest airline group operating in the Australian aviation market, with an average 32% domestic RPT capacity market share in CY24.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance and provide our thoughts on valuations.


Virgin Australia IPO - Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

<ul>
<li>FY23 performance positions VA at the top table relative to global LCC financial performance</li>
<li>Global analysis of #2 positions behind a strong market leaders suggests an efficient VA should be well positioned to sustainably outperform the global airline industry's average financial performance</li>
<li>Forecasting mean reversion for operating performance but aircraft financing savings should sustain superior profitability and cash flow generation than pre-COVID.</li>
</ul>


FY23 performance positions VA at the top table relative to global LCC financial performance
Global analysis of #2 positions behind a strong market leaders suggests an efficient VA should be well positioned to sustainably outperform the global airline industry's average financial performance
Forecasting mean reversion for operating performance but aircraft financing savings should sustain superior profitability and cash flow generation than pre-COVID.


Virgin Australia - Outperforming Most LCCs Globally; Positioned for New Era of Cash Flow Generation

Australia

Virgin Australia Holdings Limited is an Australian-based  full service airline providing domestic and international operations.

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Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU)

Can Virgin Succeed This Time?

Virgin Australia ((VGN)) is back for another go (which brings the name into question), having entered administration as a result of covid before...

FNArena

Virgin Australia IPO Trading - Flying into Oil and Recent Air Crash Headwinds

Bain Capital raised around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU). In this note, we talk about the trading...

Sumeet Singh

Virgin Australia (VGN AU): Touch & Go for Index Inclusion

Bain Capital is looking to raise A$685m, valuing Virgin Straya at A$2.3bn. Float is close to 30%. ASX300 inclusion in Sep is likely while global...

Brian Freitas

Virgin Australia IPO - Not Terribly Exciting, After Significant Items Adjustment

Bain Capital is looking to raise around US$440m via selling some of its stake in Virgin Australia Holdings (VAH AU). In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

Virgin Australia - Outperforming Most LCCs Globally; Positioned for New Era of Cash Flow Generation

Privately held Virgin Australia is preparing to IPO and our coverage launch is likely to be the only substantive research report, including short...

Neil Glynn

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