Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">CommBank (CBA AU)</a> will announce FY2026 results on 12 August, with options expiring the following day providing direct exposure to the earnings event.</li>
<li>Options pricing implies a reporting-day move above the historical median, while the 11 August RBA decision adds to short-term volatility risk.</li>
<li>Gain insight into CBA’s reporting-day price history, option-implied move, Big Four peer volatility setup, dividend expectations, and index implications ahead of results.</li>
</ul>



CommBank (CBA AU) will announce FY2026 results on 12 August, with options expiring the following day providing direct exposure to the earnings event.
Options pricing implies a reporting-day move above the historical median, while the 11 August RBA decision adds to short-term volatility risk.
Gain insight into CBA’s reporting-day price history, option-implied move, Big Four peer volatility setup, dividend expectations, and index implications ahead of results.


CommBank (CBA AU): Expected Move on FY2026 Results and Option Insights

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we look at who pays as yields climb, follow the squeeze in refined products, and track the unwinding of strategic stakes from Tokyo to Seoul and Singapore.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we look at who pays as yields climb, follow the squeeze in refined products, and track the unwinding of strategic stakes from Tokyo to Seoul and Singapore.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator’s Cut: Debt Gets Dearer, Diesel Runs Dry & Strategic Stakes Come Undone

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In my <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/248125/https:/skr.ma/sa8Bu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">weekly insight on short positions</a> in Australia, it was noteworthy seeing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> knock <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a> off the top spot.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac (WBC AU)</a> was No. 4 (in A$mn short), up from No. 11 a year ago. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> was at No. 9, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ (ANZ AU)</a> No. 14.</li>
<li>There are a multitude of factors for increased banking short positions. Revolut gaining a full banking licence Down Under is unlikely one of them. But it's still worth digging into.</li>
</ul>


In my weekly insight on short positions in Australia, it was noteworthy seeing Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) knock Rio Tinto (RIO AU) off the top spot.

Westpac (WBC AU) was No. 4 (in A$mn short), up from No. 11 a year ago. National Australia Bank (NAB AU) was at No. 9, and ANZ (ANZ AU) No. 14.
There are a multitude of factors for increased banking short positions. Revolut gaining a full banking licence Down Under is unlikely one of them. But it's still worth digging into.


Revolut's Turn To Take On Aussie Big Four

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 20th July, published on the 24th July.
</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into "Oils/Gas"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts declined A$0.2bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-energy-group-ltd-d0081203-96cd-4335-92ed-3b4cb7733dc6" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38564:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Energy (WDS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesfarmers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1" rel="noopener">Wesfarmers (WES AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group (REA AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 20th July, published on the 24th July.

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into "Oils/Gas"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts declined A$0.2bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Westpac Banking (WBC AU), Woodside Energy (WDS US), Wesfarmers (WES AU), and REA Group (REA AU).


Aussie Shorts [20 July 2026]:  Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, Woodside Energy, Wesfarmers, REA Group

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 28th September, published on the 2nd October.
</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.4bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Interactive Media". Net shorts increased A$0.5bn week-on-week. 
</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/artrya-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41151:1" rel="noopener">Artrya (AYA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/echoiq-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8230:1" rel="noopener">ECHOiQ (EIQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catalyst-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1" rel="noopener">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium (CXO AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 28th September, published on the 2nd October.

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.4bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Interactive Media". Net shorts increased A$0.5bn week-on-week. 

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: BHP Group (BHP AU), Steadfast (SDF AU), Artrya (AYA AU), ECHOiQ (EIQ AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), and Core Lithium (CXO AU).


Aussie Shorts [28 Sep 2026]: BHP Group, Steadfast, Artrya, ECHOiQ, Catalyst Metals, Core Lithium

Australia

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides banking, life insurance, and related services for individuals, small businesses and medium sized commercial enterprises. The Bank provides corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking and stock broking and funds management such as superannuation product.

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)

CommBank (CBA AU): Expected Move on FY2026 Results and Option Insights

Options pricing suggests an above-median move on 12 August, while the RBA decision adds volatility risk. Gain insight into CBA’s reporting-day...

Gaudenz Schneider

Curator’s Cut: Debt Gets Dearer, Diesel Runs Dry & Strategic Stakes Come Undone

We see which Asian sectors might be impacted by rising rates, how refiners are benefitting from wide crack spreads, and how strategic stakes are...

Pranav Rao

Revolut's Turn To Take On Aussie Big Four

Disrupting the encumbents is no bad thing. I'm not confident this is it. From a valuation standpoint, all four banks appear expensive. Especially...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts [20 July 2026]: Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, Woodside Energy, Wesfarmers, REA Group

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.2bn into "Oils/Gas"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified...

David Blennerhassett

Aussie Shorts [28 Sep 2026]: BHP Group, Steadfast, Artrya, ECHOiQ, Catalyst Metals, Core Lithium

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.4bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.1bn out of "Interactive...

David Blennerhassett

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