Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Australian banks’ November earnings triggered sharp and divergent share-price reactions, widening performance dispersion across the sector.</li>
<li>Based on the most recent moves, ANZ (ANZ AU) and Westpac (WBC AU) appear overvalued versus peers and potentially overbought, while two other banks screen as comparatively oversold.</li>
<li>Statistical analysis identifies sixteen actionable opportunities for quantitative traders targeting mean reversion plays within the sector.</li>
</ul>


Australian banks’ November earnings triggered sharp and divergent share-price reactions, widening performance dispersion across the sector.
Based on the most recent moves, ANZ (ANZ AU) and Westpac (WBC AU) appear overvalued versus peers and potentially overbought, while two other banks screen as comparatively oversold.
Statistical analysis identifies sixteen actionable opportunities for quantitative traders targeting mean reversion plays within the sector.


Relative Value in Australian Banks: ANZ/Westpac Overbought; Macquarie/Bendigo to Catch Up

Equity Derivatives

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and ten prominent Australian stocks.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Implied volatility across Australia’s major banks remains rich ahead of earnings and the RBA decision.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 and ten prominent Australian stocks.

Highlights: Implied volatility across Australia’s major banks remains rich ahead of earnings and the RBA decision.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


CBA, ANZ, Westpac, NAB: Volatility Runs High Ahead of Imminent Catalysts

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-ba" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:442:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Australian Banks ETF (MVB AU)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average.</li>
<li>
Highlights: The dislocation highlights the recent outperformance of ANZ vs. the rest of the sector, pointing to a potential underweight in a portfolio context.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) vs. VanEck Australian Banks ETF (MVB AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average.

Highlights: The dislocation highlights the recent outperformance of ANZ vs. the rest of the sector, pointing to a potential underweight in a portfolio context.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


ANZ (ANZ AU) Has Outrun the Sector — Time to Underweight

<ul>
<li>
Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Australian market closed, but several ASX-listed companies were swept up in the decline through dual listings or U.S.-traded ADRs.</li>
<li>
This Insight looks at the impact on prominent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200</a> constituents — including BHP, CSL, and major banks. While some companies showed limited movement, others, such as BHP, experienced sharper declines.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Understand where the Australian market might be headed when trading resumes after the weekend.</li>
</ul>



Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Australian market closed, but several ASX-listed companies were swept up in the decline through dual listings or U.S.-traded ADRs.

This Insight looks at the impact on prominent S&amp;P/ASX 200 constituents — including BHP, CSL, and major banks. While some companies showed limited movement, others, such as BHP, experienced sharper declines.

Why Read: Understand where the Australian market might be headed when trading resumes after the weekend.


BHP (BHP AU/US) And Woodside (WDS AU/US) Slide as U.S. Sell-Off Spills Into Australian Stocks

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for ten prominent Australian stocks and the benchmark.</li>
<li>
Highlights: December implied volatility tends to be rich for the banks and cheap for the miners. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> implied volatility is cheap across the curve.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for ten prominent Australian stocks and the benchmark.

Highlights: December implied volatility tends to be rich for the banks and cheap for the miners. S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) implied volatility is cheap across the curve.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

Australia

Commonwealth Bank of Australia provides banking, life insurance, and related services for individuals, small businesses, and medium sized commercial enterprises. The Bank offers corporate and general banking, international financing, institutional banking, and stock broking and funds management such as super annuation product.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CMWAY US)

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CMWAY US)

Relative Value in Australian Banks: ANZ/Westpac Overbought; Macquarie/Bendigo to Catch Up

Earnings in November led to varying share-price reactions, with ANZ and Westpac outperforming. Statistical analysis identifies sixteen...

Gaudenz Schneider

CBA, ANZ, Westpac, NAB: Volatility Runs High Ahead of Imminent Catalysts

Implied volatility analysis reveals rich options trading in Australian banks, offering insights for traders and investors.

Gaudenz Schneider

ANZ (ANZ AU) Has Outrun the Sector — Time to Underweight

Short ANZ vs. long the VanEck Australian Banks ETF in a mean-reversion trade targeting a 4% return — a tactical setup for quantitative and relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP (BHP AU/US) And Woodside (WDS AU/US) Slide as U.S. Sell-Off Spills Into Australian Stocks

Friday’s U.S. market rout pushed dual-listed Australian stocks lower, with BHP and Woodside among the biggest movers. US-traded ADRs and futures...

Gaudenz Schneider

From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

Volatility cones help evaluate options trading, showing Australian banks are rich and miners are cheap in December. Spot opportunities and manage...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value in Australian Banks: ANZ/Westpac Overbought; Macquarie/Bendigo to Catch Up

Earnings in November led to varying share-price reactions, with ANZ and Westpac outperforming. Statistical analysis identifies sixteen...

Gaudenz Schneider

CBA, ANZ, Westpac, NAB: Volatility Runs High Ahead of Imminent Catalysts

​Implied volatility analysis reveals rich options trading in Australian banks, offering insights for traders and investors.

Gaudenz Schneider

ANZ (ANZ AU) Has Outrun the Sector — Time to Underweight

Short ANZ vs. long the VanEck Australian Banks ETF in a mean-reversion trade targeting a 4% return — a tactical setup for quantitative and relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

BHP (BHP AU/US) And Woodside (WDS AU/US) Slide as U.S. Sell-Off Spills Into Australian Stocks

Friday’s U.S. market rout pushed dual-listed Australian stocks lower, with BHP and Woodside among the biggest movers. US-traded ADRs and futures...

Gaudenz Schneider

From Banks to Miners: Cheap Vs. Rich Volatility Across Australia

​Volatility cones help evaluate options trading, showing Australian banks are rich and miners are cheap in December. Spot opportunities and manage...

Gaudenz Schneider

Implied volatility analysis reveals rich options trading in Australian banks, offering insights for traders and investors.

Volatility cones help evaluate options trading, showing Australian banks are rich and miners are cheap in December. Spot opportunities and manage...