IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reports that CGN, the parent and largest shareholder, is reconsidering taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-new-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4295:1" rel="noopener">CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK)</a> private. </li>
<li>CGN New Energy shares have underperformed the median peer's shares since the announcement of CGN's previous aborted privatisation attempt (2 March 2020) and on the last twelve-month basis.</li>
<li>The probability of an offer is high as CGN, an SOE has access to financing, and CGN New Energy’s valuation is low. We estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.80-4.30.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that CGN, the parent and largest shareholder, is reconsidering taking CGN New Energy Holdings (1811 HK) private. 
CGN New Energy shares have underperformed the median peer's shares since the announcement of CGN's previous aborted privatisation attempt (2 March 2020) and on the last twelve-month basis.
The probability of an offer is high as CGN, an SOE has access to financing, and CGN New Energy’s valuation is low. We estimate a potential offer range of HK$2.80-4.30.


CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.</li>
<li>There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.</li>
<li>Creations continued in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.</li>
</ul>



Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

<ul>
<li>We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 30 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 28 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 26 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 25 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy G / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in December 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect one ADD and one DEL for HSCEI in December 2023. </li>
<li>There is more than one potential ADD in the top 40 according to my estimates but recent history tells us some of these names are not "<em>index-provider-friendly.</em>"</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in December 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I expect one ADD and one DEL for HSCEI in December 2023. 
There is more than one potential ADD in the top 40 according to my estimates but recent history tells us some of these names are not "index-provider-friendly."


Quiddity HSCEI Dec 23 Flow Expectations: At Least One Change Likely; There Could Be More

<ul>
<li>There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.</li>
<li>There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.
We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.
There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

Hong Kong

Concord New Energy Group Limited specializes in wind power electricity generation. The Companys principle businesses include wind farm investment and operations, and manufacturing of wind power equipment. Concord New Energy also provides wind power electricity generation services such as feasibility studies, technological consultation, power plant design, engineering,

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Concord New Energy (182 HK)

CGN New Energy (1811 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

The probability of an offer is high as CGN, an SOE has access to financing, and CGN New Energy’s valuation is low. We estimate a potential offer...

Arun George

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March

There could be nearly 58 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity HSCEI Dec 23 Flow Expectations: At Least One Change Likely; There Could Be More

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK) / Beijing Energy (686 HK) and Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK) / Concord New Energy (182 HK) price...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

There could be nearly 50 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)