Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Japanese banks’ share prices have barely moved following the Bank of Japan’s exit from negative interest rates; is it largely discounted or does the continued accommodative stance instil caution? </li>
<li>Japanese banks will benefit from 100% of their deposits at the BoJ earning 0.1%, as opposed to 40% of bank deposits which was the case up to the 20th March</li>
<li>We believe our positive recommendations are all geared into higher domestic interest rates; we highlight Resona, Mizuho and Suruga in this report for their high cash and at bank balances</li>
</ul>


The Japanese banks’ share prices have barely moved following the Bank of Japan’s exit from negative interest rates; is it largely discounted or does the continued accommodative stance instil caution? 
Japanese banks will benefit from 100% of their deposits at the BoJ earning 0.1%, as opposed to 40% of bank deposits which was the case up to the 20th March
We believe our positive recommendations are all geared into higher domestic interest rates; we highlight Resona, Mizuho and Suruga in this report for their high cash and at bank balances


Japanese Banks – Cash Balances and the BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Exit

<ul>
<li>The current “higher for longer” interest rates in the US and other developed markets adds to the Bank of Japan potentially ending its negative interest rate policy</li>
<li>Domestically, news reports suggest that the BoJ's 2% inflation target is increasingly likely to be met in the short term, which further drives the potential normalization of interest rate policy</li>
<li>Growing expectation of the BoJ’s negative interest rate policy exit adds upside to Japanese bank shares, especially those geared into higher domestic interest rates; we like Resona, Mizuho and Concordia</li>
</ul>


The current “higher for longer” interest rates in the US and other developed markets adds to the Bank of Japan potentially ending its negative interest rate policy
Domestically, news reports suggest that the BoJ's 2% inflation target is increasingly likely to be met in the short term, which further drives the potential normalization of interest rate policy
Growing expectation of the BoJ’s negative interest rate policy exit adds upside to Japanese bank shares, especially those geared into higher domestic interest rates; we like Resona, Mizuho and Concordia


Japanese Bigger Cap Banks – Exit from BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Gathers Steam

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Murakami's entity, City Index Eleventh, <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100SXVR.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2024-02-28T11%3A55%3A56Z&amp;se=2029-02-28T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=KsmAvBaNzu2rEiYRuXlPOtKaHqN1iiDtl2acvAB9gH8%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 5.42% shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a>. Murakami started buying a day after the disastrous 3QFY23 results.</li>
<li>Murakami's average buy-in price is JPY2,137.88 per share, a 34% discount to the pre-3QFY23 results share price. </li>
<li>Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term trading play replicating the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3439:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Metals (5541 JP)</a> playbook.</li>
</ul>


Murakami's entity, City Index Eleventh, reported a 5.42% shareholding in Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP). Murakami started buying a day after the disastrous 3QFY23 results.
Murakami's average buy-in price is JPY2,137.88 per share, a 34% discount to the pre-3QFY23 results share price. 
Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term trading play replicating the Pacific Metals (5541 JP) playbook.


Aozora Bank (8304 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】.  But they did not actually shame.</li>
<li>The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links. On Feb 1, the TSE put out a <strong><a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1020/u5j7e50000001bqd-att/240201en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a></strong> and set of <strong><a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1020/u5j7e50000001bqd-att/240201en2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">case studies</a>.</strong>
</li>
<li>Designed to present the "Investor's Point of View", they have unexpectedly worthwhile advice/commentary for corporates. The TSE appears to be trying hard to prompt serious consideration rather than box-ticking.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】.  But they did not actually shame.
The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We have the links. On Feb 1, the TSE put out a presentation and set of case studies.

Designed to present the "Investor's Point of View", they have unexpectedly worthwhile advice/commentary for corporates. The TSE appears to be trying hard to prompt serious consideration rather than box-ticking.


Updated Tool for TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" And New Presentation/CaseStudies

<ul>
<li>3QFY23 results reveal losses related to Aozora’s US CRE exposure and securities portfolio; management forecasts a FY23 loss and a 50% cut in the previously forecast FY2023 dividend</li>
<li>US CRE exposure is 6.6% of total loans and Aozora’s US CRE deterioration propelled the NPL ratio to 2.87% up 162bps QoQ, the worst NPL ratio of the peer group</li>
<li>The securities portfolio hits are in US MBS and US bond ETFs; SMFG and Mizuho have large relative FX bond exposures, but they have less duration risk</li>
</ul>


3QFY23 results reveal losses related to Aozora’s US CRE exposure and securities portfolio; management forecasts a FY23 loss and a 50% cut in the previously forecast FY2023 dividend
US CRE exposure is 6.6% of total loans and Aozora’s US CRE deterioration propelled the NPL ratio to 2.87% up 162bps QoQ, the worst NPL ratio of the peer group
The securities portfolio hits are in US MBS and US bond ETFs; SMFG and Mizuho have large relative FX bond exposures, but they have less duration risk


Aozora Bank (8304 JP) – Two Bets Too Far

Japan

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Bank of Yokohama and Higashi-Nippon Bank. The Company provides banking services and other financial services.

Concordia Financial Group, Ltd (7186 JP)

Japanese Banks – Cash Balances and the BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Exit

Japanese banks' share prices mark time post-BoJ's exit from negative interest rates, due to BoJ'S continued accommodative stance. We highlight...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Bigger Cap Banks – Exit from BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Gathers Steam

BoJ approaching the end its negative interest rate policy should act as a boost to Japanese bank shares, especially those geared into higher...

Victor Galliano

Aozora Bank (8304 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term trading play replicating the Pacific Metals...

Arun George

Updated Tool for TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" And New Presentation/CaseStudies

The TSE update for this will come out in a day or two. There will be some commentary on the update. It is not meaningful yet, mostly because...

Travis Lundy

Aozora Bank (8304 JP) – Two Bets Too Far

Aozora Bank's losses from US CRE and securities point to a projected FY23 loss and a dividend cut, with it having the highest overseas loan share...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Banks – Cash Balances and the BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Exit

​Japanese banks' share prices mark time post-BoJ's exit from negative interest rates, due to BoJ'S continued accommodative stance. We highlight...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Bigger Cap Banks – Exit from BoJ’s Negative Interest Rate Policy Gathers Steam

​BoJ approaching the end its negative interest rate policy should act as a boost to Japanese bank shares, especially those geared into higher...

Victor Galliano

Aozora Bank (8304 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term trading play replicating the Pacific Metals...

Arun George

Updated Tool for TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price" And New Presentation/CaseStudies

The TSE update for this will come out in a day or two. There will be some commentary on the update. It is not meaningful yet, mostly because...

Travis Lundy

Aozora Bank (8304 JP) – Two Bets Too Far

​Aozora Bank's losses from US CRE and securities point to a projected FY23 loss and a dividend cut, with it having the highest overseas loan share...

Victor Galliano

Japanese banks' share prices mark time post-BoJ's exit from negative interest rates, due to BoJ'S continued accommodative stance. We highlight...

BoJ approaching the end its negative interest rate policy should act as a boost to Japanese bank shares, especially those geared into higher...

Aozora Bank's losses from US CRE and securities point to a projected FY23 loss and a dividend cut, with it having the highest overseas loan share...