Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">PCOMP INDEX</a> in August.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.</li>
<li>There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the PCOMP INDEX in August.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), STAR50 INDEX, the NIFTY family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.
There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Notable constituent changes are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12421:1" rel="noopener">Posco Chemical (003670 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ecopro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19029:1" rel="noopener">Ecopro (086520 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/connectwave-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7191:1" rel="noopener">Connectwave (119860 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-innovation-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1268:1" rel="noopener">SK Innovation (096770 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kmw-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2834:1" rel="noopener">KMW (032500 KS)</a>, &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanmi-science-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18549:1" rel="noopener">Hanmi Science (008930 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>Among these, <strong>Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</strong> and <strong>KMW (032500 KS)</strong> are expected to receive the most significant flow impact (x ADTV) at the close of March 9th.</li>
<li>Since the flow size is concentrated within a fairly right trading window, between 2 pm and the close on the 9th, the degree of price impact should be relatively higher.</li>
</ul>


Notable constituent changes are Posco Chemical (003670 KS), Douzone Bizon (012510 KS), Ecopro (086520 KS), Connectwave (119860 KS), SK Innovation (096770 KS), KMW (032500 KS), &amp; Hanmi Science (008930 KS).
Among these, Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) and KMW (032500 KS) are expected to receive the most significant flow impact (x ADTV) at the close of March 9th.
Since the flow size is concentrated within a fairly right trading window, between 2 pm and the close on the 9th, the degree of price impact should be relatively higher.


K-New Deal Official Constituent Changes: Evaluating Flow Trading Opportunities

<ul>
<li>TPG and Anchor experienced EOD risk due to the recent plunge in Kakao Bank's stock price. So, they will sell shares if the current price rise continues a little further.</li>
<li>All three PEs of Shinhan Financial are currently expected to be seeking an early exit although they expressed last year that they would remain strategic shareholders.</li>
<li>Other notable targets are Hahn &amp; Co's Hanon Systems and K Car and MBK Partners' ConnectWave, likely via a phased stake sale in tranches.</li>
</ul>


TPG and Anchor experienced EOD risk due to the recent plunge in Kakao Bank's stock price. So, they will sell shares if the current price rise continues a little further.
All three PEs of Shinhan Financial are currently expected to be seeking an early exit although they expressed last year that they would remain strategic shareholders.
Other notable targets are Hahn &amp; Co's Hanon Systems and K Car and MBK Partners' ConnectWave, likely via a phased stake sale in tranches.


Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup

<ul>
<li>For KOSDAQ 150, SillaJen and WCP made it to the index. As for deletions, Intron Biotechnology, Ebest I&amp;S, and Devsisters are additional names to leave the index through regular review.</li>
<li>Lotte Confectionery and Samyang Holdings do not have sizeable DTV. And they were fully expected. Nevertheless, the passive impact is so significant that the LONG/SHORT approach still seems valid.</li>
<li>We should focus on KOSDAQ 150 inclusions whose return has been high due to the inflow to secure a borrow pool for short-selling on top of the preemptive rebalancing flow.</li>
</ul>


For KOSDAQ 150, SillaJen and WCP made it to the index. As for deletions, Intron Biotechnology, Ebest I&amp;S, and Devsisters are additional names to leave the index through regular review.
Lotte Confectionery and Samyang Holdings do not have sizeable DTV. And they were fully expected. Nevertheless, the passive impact is so significant that the LONG/SHORT approach still seems valid.
We should focus on KOSDAQ 150 inclusions whose return has been high due to the inflow to secure a borrow pool for short-selling on top of the preemptive rebalancing flow.


KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Constituent Changes: Several Surprises

<ul>
<li>There are 12 inclusions and 12 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance to be implemented at the close on 9 June.</li>
<li>Most of the inclusions were expected, but there are quite a few surprises among the deletions. The impact on the deletions will be higher than that on the inclusions.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been another leg up in the last couple of weeks. Expect the trend to continue till implementation week.</li>
</ul>


There are 12 inclusions and 12 exclusions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the June rebalance to be implemented at the close on 9 June.
Most of the inclusions were expected, but there are quite a few surprises among the deletions. The impact on the deletions will be higher than that on the inclusions.
The adds have outperformed the deletes and there has been another leg up in the last couple of weeks. Expect the trend to continue till implementation week.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: A Dozen Changes in June

South Korea

Connectwave Co., Ltd. operates as an online shopping portal site. The Company provides price comparing and shopping information providing service. Connectwave also generates income from advertisement.

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Connectwave (119860 KS)

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