Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Last week's FOMC announcement was more hawkish than expected, and the market took the news in stride. Market dynamics have improved significantly since the announcement, which has us inching toward an outright bullish outlook; we are just waiting for price breakouts from cyclical areas including small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Energy (XOP).Charts highlighted: COP, EOG, DVN, CLR, FANG, MRO, XEC, COG, AR, MUR, USB, PNC, FITB, KEY, RF, CMA, SIVB, WAL, EWBC, ZION, PACW, UMPQ, FHB, and CATY.

Last week's FOMC announcement was more hawkish than expected, and the market took the news in stride. Market dynamics have improved significantly since the announcement, which has us inching toward an outright bullish outlook; we are just waiting for price breakouts from cyclical areas including small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Energy (XOP).Charts highlighted: COP, EOG, DVN, CLR, FANG, MRO, XEC, COG, AR, MUR, USB, PNC, FITB, KEY, RF, CMA, SIVB, WAL, EWBC, ZION, PACW, UMPQ, FHB, and CATY.

10-Yr Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Downgrading U.S. Consumer Staples and Utilities To Underweight

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>ConocoPhillips had one of its best quarters in recent times as the company produced an all-around beat with nearly double the profitability on a sequential quarter-on-quarter basis.</li><li>The company has nearly tripled its output to about 1.547 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day during Q2, up from 566,000 boe per day from the corresponding quarter of 2020.</li><li>The increased output from the company has indeed come at an excellent time and it realized $50.03 during the previous quarter.</li></ul>

ConocoPhillips had one of its best quarters in recent times as the company produced an all-around beat with nearly double the profitability on a sequential quarter-on-quarter basis.The company has nearly tripled its output to about 1.547 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day during Q2, up from 566,000 boe per day from the corresponding quarter of 2020.The increased output from the company has indeed come at an excellent time and it realized $50.03 during the previous quarter.

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Shortly after publishing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/engine-versus-exxon-activist-hedge-fund-s-proxy-fight-win-reverberates-through-big-oil-boardrooms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52318" rel="noopener">Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms</a>, I decided that a follow-up report (such as this one) would be a good supplement. So, consider this an addendum of sorts to that first Insight.Whereas "Engine Versus Exxon" was a mostly qualitative discussion of recent events for Exxon and six other supermajors, this is a more data-driven look of a much larger universe of oil stocks; 50 in total, representing 24 countries (mainly in the Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe).Together, they are a good proxy for the broader Energy sector – an aggregate market capitalisation of US$4.6 trillion, and responsible for an astounding 20.5 billion MtCO2e in emissions, about 65% of all energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.This is a relatively focused Insight, covering four related areas:<ol>
<li>
Carbon Footprints: Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions for each (ranked and sorted).</li>
<li>
Climate Policies: Where each stands vis-à-vis implementation of climate-related policies.</li>
<li>
Emissions Targets: Which companies are claiming to go net-zero emissions, and by when.</li>
<li>
Capital Investment: How future CapEx is (or is not) aligned with global warming targets.</li>
</ol>

Shortly after publishing Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms, I decided that a follow-up report (such as this one) would be a good supplement. So, consider this an addendum of sorts to that first Insight.Whereas "Engine Versus Exxon" was a mostly qualitative discussion of recent events for Exxon and six other supermajors, this is a more data-driven look of a much larger universe of oil stocks; 50 in total, representing 24 countries (mainly in the Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe).Together, they are a good proxy for the broader Energy sector – an aggregate market capitalisation of US$4.6 trillion, and responsible for an astounding 20.5 billion MtCO2e in emissions, about 65% of all energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.This is a relatively focused Insight, covering four related areas:

Carbon Footprints: Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions for each (ranked and sorted).

Climate Policies: Where each stands vis-à-vis implementation of climate-related policies.

Emissions Targets: Which companies are claiming to go net-zero emissions, and by when.

Capital Investment: How future CapEx is (or is not) aligned with global warming targets.


Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profiles of 50 of the World's Largest Oil Companies

In last week's Compass we highlighted what we view as compelling signals that risk appetites are improving, which is bullish for the broad market. The trend of improving risk appetites has only continued over the past week and we are moving toward an outright bullish outlook.

In last week's Compass we highlighted what we view as compelling signals that risk appetites are improving, which is bullish for the broad market. The trend of improving risk appetites has only continued over the past week and we are moving toward an outright bullish outlook.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Re-Emerging As Leadership

Here it comes, the David-and-Goliath metaphor. Cliché is an understatement, but who cares – it is a most fitting allegory for the epic proxy battle between a diminutive activist investor you've never heard of and a "Big Oil" Behemoth that you know all too well... <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a>.Guess who won?Well, that depends on perspective. The activist hedge fund (Engine No. 1) gained three Board seats so one could certainly say that Engine won. As did the shareholders that backed Engine in its proxy (BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, CalPERS, CalSTRS). But the biggest winner of all?Planet Earth.Engine's improbable win – in conjunction with similar (albeit less spectacular) shareholder actions at other supermajors – appears to signify a seismic shift in how Big Oil's shareholders view climate change, and could portend real change (e.g., accelerated decarbonisation and better reporting).

Here it comes, the David-and-Goliath metaphor. Cliché is an understatement, but who cares – it is a most fitting allegory for the epic proxy battle between a diminutive activist investor you've never heard of and a "Big Oil" Behemoth that you know all too well... Exxon Mobil (XOM US).Guess who won?Well, that depends on perspective. The activist hedge fund (Engine No. 1) gained three Board seats so one could certainly say that Engine won. As did the shareholders that backed Engine in its proxy (BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, CalPERS, CalSTRS). But the biggest winner of all?Planet Earth.Engine's improbable win – in conjunction with similar (albeit less spectacular) shareholder actions at other supermajors – appears to signify a seismic shift in how Big Oil's shareholders view climate change, and could portend real change (e.g., accelerated decarbonisation and better reporting).

Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms

United States

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen on a worldwide basis.

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Conocophillips (COP US)

10-Yr Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Downgrading U.S. Consumer Staples and Utilities To Underweight

The 10-year Treasury yield broke above the key 1.38% resistance level last week, a bullish signal for the broad equity market and also a bullish...

Vermilion Research

ConocoPhillips - Investment Thesis

ConocoPhillips had one of its best quarters in recent times as the company produced an all-around beat with nearly double the profitability on a...

Baptista Research

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profiles of 50 of the World's Largest Oil Companies

A quick overview of the carbon footprints and climate policies of 50 of the world's largest oil stocks (mainly Asia Pacific, Americas, and Europe...

Kyle Rudden

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Re-Emerging As Leadership

We continue to see compelling signals that suggest risk appetites are improving, which is bullish for the broad market. As a result, we are moving...

Vermilion Research

Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms

May 26, 2021. Black Wednesday. A day that changed Big Oil forever. From Exxon's proxy fight loss to an activist fund you've never heard of, to...

Kyle Rudden

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