IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.</li>
<li>With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.</li>
<li>If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.</li>
</ul>


The Origin Energy (ORG AU) scheme vote is on 23 November. Brookfield/EIG’s best and final offer is A$6.59 and US$1.86 per share, currently worth A$9.45.
With AusSuper reportedly increasing its stake past 17% on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. Brookfield/EIG will need a large YES vote turnout for a successful vote.
If the scheme is voted down, there are mainly three Plan Bs – Brookfield/EIG’s alternate transaction structure, Board-initiated strategic review or maintaining the status quo.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 31st October, AustralianSuper (with 13.67% of shares out and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>'s largest shareholder) <a href="https://www.australiansuper.com/-/media/australian-super/files/about-us/media-releases/australiansuper-rejects-brookfield-bid-for-origin-energy.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">argued</a> the Brookfield/EIG-backed Consortium Offer remained substantially below its estimate of fair value.</li>
<li>Brookfield/EIG have now increased their Offer by 8% to $9.53/share from $8.81/share, which now comprises cash components of A$6.59/share and US$1.86/share. A consideration-reducing fully-franked dividend of A$0.39/share is expected.</li>
<li>
The Offer is declared "best and final." It is above the top-end of the IE's valuation range. AustralianSuper should accept the revised terms. But they say no.</li>
</ul>


On the 31st October, AustralianSuper (with 13.67% of shares out and Origin Energy (ORG AU)'s largest shareholder) argued the Brookfield/EIG-backed Consortium Offer remained substantially below its estimate of fair value.
Brookfield/EIG have now increased their Offer by 8% to $9.53/share from $8.81/share, which now comprises cash components of A$6.59/share and US$1.86/share. A consideration-reducing fully-franked dividend of A$0.39/share is expected.

The Offer is declared "best and final." It is above the top-end of the IE's valuation range. AustralianSuper should accept the revised terms. But they say no.


Origin: Brookfield Bumps. AustralianSuper Say Meh.

<ul>
<li>On 10th October, the ACCC cleared Brookfield to take over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The transaction still needs shareholder approval and AustralianSuper with its too-big-to-ignore 13.68% stake reckons terms are below long-term value.</li>
<li>The Scheme Booklet is out with a 23 November Scheme Meeting. The IE backs out a fair value range of $8.45-$9.48/share, but as at June 30. A bump is imminent.</li>
</ul>


On 10th October, the ACCC cleared Brookfield to take over Origin Energy (ORG AU). 
The transaction still needs shareholder approval and AustralianSuper with its too-big-to-ignore 13.68% stake reckons terms are below long-term value.
The Scheme Booklet is out with a 23 November Scheme Meeting. The IE backs out a fair value range of $8.45-$9.48/share, but as at June 30. A bump is imminent.


Origin/Brookfield: Bump Expected Ahead Of 23 Nov Scheme Meeting

<ul>
<li>Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy's tilt for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, faced two major hurdles. </li>
<li>The first was ACCC approval. Not just over competition issues, but also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation. ACCC has now cleared the transaction. 
</li>
<li>The second is currying favour with shareholders, several of whom, including AustralianSuper (13.68% stake), reckon the Offer is substantially below long-term value. This needs a bump.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield Asset Management/MidOcean Energy's tilt for Origin Energy (ORG AU), faced two major hurdles. 
The first was ACCC approval. Not just over competition issues, but also the perceived/apparent public benefit from Brookfield's future commitment to renewable generation. ACCC has now cleared the transaction. 

The second is currying favour with shareholders, several of whom, including AustralianSuper (13.68% stake), reckon the Offer is substantially below long-term value. This needs a bump.


Origin/Brookfield: ACCC Rubber Stamped. Now Shareholders Will Have Their Say

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ConocoPhillips delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.</li><li>The company executed several significant agreements and acquisitions, including purchasing the remaining 50% of Surmont, a valuable asset expected to contribute substantial free cash flow.</li><li>Despite commodity price volatility, the company delivered an underlying solid performance, achieving significant global and Lower 48 production and raising yearly production guidance.</li></ul>

ConocoPhillips delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall Street.The company executed several significant agreements and acquisitions, including purchasing the remaining 50% of Surmont, a valuable asset expected to contribute substantial free cash flow.Despite commodity price volatility, the company delivered an underlying solid performance, achieving significant global and Lower 48 production and raising yearly production guidance.

ConocoPhillips: Resilience Amidst Volatility - The Road to Value Creation! - Major Drivers

United States

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen on a worldwide basis.

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Conocophillips (COP US)

Origin Energy (ORG AU): State of Play

With AusSuper increasing its stake on Friday, the scheme vote remains too close to call. If the scheme fails, there are mainly three Plan Bs, which...

Arun George

Origin: Brookfield Bumps. AustralianSuper Say Meh.

Trading down 5.3% to A$8.59/share as I type. Not a great outcome for minorities. Massive uncertainty. Alongside significant downside potential. ...

David Blennerhassett

Origin/Brookfield: Bump Expected Ahead Of 23 Nov Scheme Meeting

There's ~5% from a bump. If you can take advantage of franking credits (attached to the special divvie), this is still attractive. But, if not...

David Blennerhassett

Origin/Brookfield: ACCC Rubber Stamped. Now Shareholders Will Have Their Say

Shares are up 4.5% today to A$9.15, as I type, suggesting ~7% upside to a possible A$9.80/share revised Offer. I'd be picking up shares around here.

David Blennerhassett

ConocoPhillips: Resilience Amidst Volatility - The Road to Value Creation! - Major Drivers

ConocoPhillips delivered a disappointing set of results as the company was unable to meet the revenue and earnings expectations of Wall...

Baptista Research

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