IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> has entered into a binding proposal with Brookfield/EIG. The offer terms are changed to A$5.78 and US$2.19 per share. The offer is worth A$8.912 excluding dividends.</li>
<li>Since the announcement of the first indicative offer on 10 November 2022, the average implied value of the revised offer is A$8.97 per share vs A$9.00 for the previous offer.</li>
<li>ACCC approval will be the key overhang and is expected to take around six months. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 9.1%.</li>
</ul>



Origin Energy (ORG AU) has entered into a binding proposal with Brookfield/EIG. The offer terms are changed to A$5.78 and US$2.19 per share. The offer is worth A$8.912 excluding dividends.
Since the announcement of the first indicative offer on 10 November 2022, the average implied value of the revised offer is A$8.97 per share vs A$9.00 for the previous offer.
ACCC approval will be the key overhang and is expected to take around six months. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 9.1%.


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG Binding Offer; ACCC Approval the Key Risk

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In the wake of the Aussie government's gas price intervention, the Brookfield/MidOcean consortium reduced its Offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a></strong> to ~A$8.90/share, down from A$9.00/share, on the 22 Feb. </li>
<li>At the time, Origin appeared supportive.  Origin and Brookfield/MidOcean have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed.</li>
<li>Some subtle - and more favourable to all investors - changes have been made to terms. Pricing is attractive. ACCC is the big question mark.</li>
</ul>


In the wake of the Aussie government's gas price intervention, the Brookfield/MidOcean consortium reduced its Offer for Origin Energy (ORG AU) to ~A$8.90/share, down from A$9.00/share, on the 22 Feb. 
At the time, Origin appeared supportive.  Origin and Brookfield/MidOcean have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed.
Some subtle - and more favourable to all investors - changes have been made to terms. Pricing is attractive. ACCC is the big question mark.


Origin Energy And Brookfield/MidOcean Enter Into Scheme Deed

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ConocoPhillips had a mixed result in the last quarter as the company was able to surpass the revenue expectations of Wall Street given its diversified and deep portfolio.</li><li>From a portfolio perspective, the company’s deep asset base is very well-positioned to generate solid cash flow and has generated a high return on capital.</li><li>The company has many new LNG opportunities in the United States and in Qatar which provide a strong upside.</li></ul>

ConocoPhillips had a mixed result in the last quarter as the company was able to surpass the revenue expectations of Wall Street given its diversified and deep portfolio.From a portfolio perspective, the company’s deep asset base is very well-positioned to generate solid cash flow and has generated a high return on capital.The company has many new LNG opportunities in the United States and in Qatar which provide a strong upside.

ConocoPhillips: Collaboration With Sempra Infrastructure & Other Drivers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>’s exclusivity agreement with Brookfield/EIG expired on 24 January. Brookfield/EIG is reportedly continuing its due diligence on its A$9.00 per share offer.</li>
<li>Time often kills deals. There is speculation that recent price caps would result in Brookfield/EIG walking away or trying to recut the deal terms. ACCC approval is also an overhang.</li>
<li>Peers' share prices have risen despite the price cap which weakens the case for a recut to the deal terms. Brookfield/EIG clearly want Origin as it twice bid against itself. </li>
</ul>



Origin Energy (ORG AU)’s exclusivity agreement with Brookfield/EIG expired on 24 January. Brookfield/EIG is reportedly continuing its due diligence on its A$9.00 per share offer.
Time often kills deals. There is speculation that recent price caps would result in Brookfield/EIG walking away or trying to recut the deal terms. ACCC approval is also an overhang.
Peers' share prices have risen despite the price cap which weakens the case for a recut to the deal terms. Brookfield/EIG clearly want Origin as it twice bid against itself. 


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Risk/Reward Profile

<ul><li>ConocoPhillips’ stock has continued its phenomenal bull run and continues to reach new highs as the company delivered a solid third quarter result surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.</li><li>This is especially true for U.S. shale, where the rate of production increase across the board is being constrained by quickly rising costs and an exceedingly constrained supply.</li><li>The company is well-positioned to address these long-term supply challenges thanks to the depth and high quality of its unconventional U.S. inventory and broad global portfolio.</li></ul>

ConocoPhillips’ stock has continued its phenomenal bull run and continues to reach new highs as the company delivered a solid third quarter result surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.This is especially true for U.S. shale, where the rate of production increase across the board is being constrained by quickly rising costs and an exceedingly constrained supply.The company is well-positioned to address these long-term supply challenges thanks to the depth and high quality of its unconventional U.S. inventory and broad global portfolio.

ConocoPhillips: Partnership With Qatar Energy & Other Developments

United States

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, liquefied natural gas and bitumen on a worldwide basis.

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Conocophillips (COP US)

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG Binding Offer; ACCC Approval the Key Risk

The revised terms are reasonable. The key risk is the timing of ACCC approval. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 9.1%.

Arun George

Origin Energy And Brookfield/MidOcean Enter Into Scheme Deed

Some subtle changes have been made to terms. Pricing is attractive. ACCC is the big question mark. Trading at a 9.1% gross spread to terms. I...

David Blennerhassett

ConocoPhillips: Collaboration With Sempra Infrastructure & Other Drivers

ConocoPhillips had a mixed result in the last quarter as the company was able to surpass the revenue expectations of Wall Street given its...

Baptista Research

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Risk/Reward Profile

The risk-reward profile is favourable as the downside due to a deal break (-11% estimated decline) is lower than the upside (+23%) to the...

Arun George

ConocoPhillips: Partnership With Qatar Energy & Other Developments

ConocoPhillips’ stock has continued its phenomenal bull run and continues to reach new highs as the company delivered a solid third quarter result...

Baptista Research

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