New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>All else equal, we estimate the share-price-implied valuation of CDC is ~NZ$11bn (IFT’s ~50% stake), or ~15x current contracted EV/EBITDA.</li><li>CDC has material uncontracted capacity under construction that it can deliver into a capacity-constrained market with strong demand.</li><li>We believe CDC and data centres provide attractive exposure to the growth of the AI ecosystem.</li></ul>

All else equal, we estimate the share-price-implied valuation of CDC is ~NZ$11bn (IFT’s ~50% stake), or ~15x current contracted EV/EBITDA.CDC has material uncontracted capacity under construction that it can deliver into a capacity-constrained market with strong demand.We believe CDC and data centres provide attractive exposure to the growth of the AI ecosystem.

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record June 2026 and a record 4Q26 to cap a remarkable FY26 turnaround from FY25.</li><li>Favourable operating conditions reduced the need for expensive hedges as sales volumes and margins continued to grow.</li><li>While we have pulled back our medium-term outlook slightly on lower ASX futures prices, we upgrade MEL to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM following recent soft share price performance that has seen MEL underperform the market by -8.6% in the past six weeks.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record June 2026 and a record 4Q26 to cap a remarkable FY26 turnaround from FY25.Favourable operating conditions reduced the need for expensive hedges as sales volumes and margins continued to grow.While we have pulled back our medium-term outlook slightly on lower ASX futures prices, we upgrade MEL to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM following recent soft share price performance that has seen MEL underperform the market by -8.6% in the past six weeks.

Meridian Energy Powering to the Finish Line 4Q26 Op Stats

<ul><li>Infratil’s (IFT) largest investment, CDC: (1) continues to progress developments at a rapid rate; (2) has expanded its longer-term development pipeline, as flagged at its FY26 result; and (3) has seen a material increase in its independent valuation.</li><li>New disclosure and substantial 1Q27 construction starts indicate CDC has greater near-term leasing capacity than we had previously assumed.</li><li>We see further large contract wins for CDC as potential catalysts and retain OUTPERFORM.</li></ul>

Infratil’s (IFT) largest investment, CDC: (1) continues to progress developments at a rapid rate; (2) has expanded its longer-term development pipeline, as flagged at its FY26 result; and (3) has seen a material increase in its independent valuation.New disclosure and substantial 1Q27 construction starts indicate CDC has greater near-term leasing capacity than we had previously assumed.We see further large contract wins for CDC as potential catalysts and retain OUTPERFORM.

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) has announced it sold part of its stake in Contact Energy (CEN) in a fully underwritten block trade for NZ$495m.</li><li>IFT has committed to holding its remaining ~9% stake in CEN until CEN releases its FY26 results in August 2026.</li><li>We expect IFT to give further details at its FY26 results on Tuesday 26 May.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) has announced it sold part of its stake in Contact Energy (CEN) in a fully underwritten block trade for NZ$495m.IFT has committed to holding its remaining ~9% stake in CEN until CEN releases its FY26 results in August 2026.We expect IFT to give further details at its FY26 results on Tuesday 26 May.

Infratil (IFT): Reduces CEN Stake By NZ$495m

<ul><li>Mercury’s (MCY) geothermal investor day fleshed out its near-term geothermal development opportunities, highlighting two projects at Ngā Tamariki and Rotokawa respectively.</li><li>The two targeted developments add up to 125MW and ~+1TWh of generation to MCY’s portfolio.</li><li>Geothermal is our preferred renewable generation development technology as it does not face the same intermittency challenges as wind and solar, making it lower risk.</li></ul>

Mercury’s (MCY) geothermal investor day fleshed out its near-term geothermal development opportunities, highlighting two projects at Ngā Tamariki and Rotokawa respectively.The two targeted developments add up to 125MW and ~+1TWh of generation to MCY’s portfolio.Geothermal is our preferred renewable generation development technology as it does not face the same intermittency challenges as wind and solar, making it lower risk.

Mercury Full Steam Ahead—Geothermal Investor Day

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Infratil CDC—Racking Up the Returns

All else equal, we estimate the share-price-implied valuation of CDC is ~NZ$11bn (IFT’s ~50% stake), or ~15x current contracted EV/EBITDA. CDC has...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy Powering to the Finish Line 4Q26 Op Stats

Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record June 2026 and a record 4Q26 to cap a remarkable FY26 turnaround from FY25. Favourable operating...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil Capacity to Surprise

Infratil’s (IFT) largest investment, CDC: (1) continues to progress developments at a rapid rate; (2) has expanded its longer-term development...

Forsyth Barr

Infratil (IFT): Reduces CEN Stake By NZ$495m

Infratil (IFT) has announced it sold part of its stake in Contact Energy (CEN) in a fully underwritten block trade for NZ$495m. IFT has committed...

Forsyth Barr

Mercury Full Steam Ahead—Geothermal Investor Day

Mercury’s (MCY) geothermal investor day fleshed out its near-term geothermal development opportunities, highlighting two projects at Ngā Tamariki...

Forsyth Barr

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