New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>April 2026 was a strong month for the electricity sector, particularly Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE), which both upgraded FY26 EBITDAF guidance due to favourable operating conditions.</li><li>The climate outlook for the next 12 months is also favourable, with expected El Niño conditions generally positive for the sector, as it means above-average hydro and wind generation for most.</li><li>Our preferred stocks are Contact Energy (CEN) and MCY, rated OUTPERFORM. GNE and Meridian Energy (MEL) are rated NEUTRAL.</li></ul>

April 2026 was a strong month for the electricity sector, particularly Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE), which both upgraded FY26 EBITDAF guidance due to favourable operating conditions.The climate outlook for the next 12 months is also favourable, with expected El Niño conditions generally positive for the sector, as it means above-average hydro and wind generation for most.Our preferred stocks are Contact Energy (CEN) and MCY, rated OUTPERFORM. GNE and Meridian Energy (MEL) are rated NEUTRAL.

Power Points El Nino Set to Make a Splash—May 2026

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) has had a strong 3Q26 and remains on track to meet our FY26 EBITDAF forecast, which is +3% higher than CEN's guidance.</li><li>Higher generation volumes at a lower average cost due to the Manawa Energy acquisition and increased gas sales are the main factors behind the strong quarter.</li><li>CEN is one of our preferred electricity exposures, with a strong development pipeline, and solid earnings and dividend growth.</li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) has had a strong 3Q26 and remains on track to meet our FY26 EBITDAF forecast, which is +3% higher than CEN's guidance.Higher generation volumes at a lower average cost due to the Manawa Energy acquisition and increased gas sales are the main factors behind the strong quarter.CEN is one of our preferred electricity exposures, with a strong development pipeline, and solid earnings and dividend growth.

Contact Energy Tracking to Expectations—3Q26 Op Stats

<ul><li>February 2026 was dominated by two equity raises and the government’s announcement that it is pursuing an LNG import facility.</li><li>The LNG facility announced by the government on 9 February appears to have been a key factor in 2028 and 2029 ASX futures prices declining ~-NZ$22/MWh (~-14%) in the following three weeks.</li><li>Contact Energy (CEN) and Genesis Energy (GNE) equity raises were to support new asset development, which remains a key focus for the sector.</li></ul>

February 2026 was dominated by two equity raises and the government’s announcement that it is pursuing an LNG import facility.The LNG facility announced by the government on 9 February appears to have been a key factor in 2028 and 2029 ASX futures prices declining ~-NZ$22/MWh (~-14%) in the following three weeks.Contact Energy (CEN) and Genesis Energy (GNE) equity raises were to support new asset development, which remains a key focus for the sector.

Power Points Not All Megawatts Are Equal—March 2026

<ul><li>In an unexpected move, Contact Energy (CEN) is raising ~NZ$525m of equity to fund projects brought forward and to increase balance sheet flexibility for future projects.</li><li>The 1H26 result was strong, with EBITDAF up +28% on 1H25 following the acquisition of Manawa Energy, increased geothermal generation, and more favourable wholesale market conditions.</li><li>CEN has strong growth prospects and a sector-leading development pipeline.</li></ul>

In an unexpected move, Contact Energy (CEN) is raising ~NZ$525m of equity to fund projects brought forward and to increase balance sheet flexibility for future projects.The 1H26 result was strong, with EBITDAF up +28% on 1H25 following the acquisition of Manawa Energy, increased geothermal generation, and more favourable wholesale market conditions.CEN has strong growth prospects and a sector-leading development pipeline.

Contact Energy Accelerating For Growth—1H26 Result

<ul><li>January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).</li><li>January 2026 is another pointer to the future. High levels of must-run generation will suppress wholesale electricity prices, particularly during low demand months when it is sunny, such as January and December.</li><li>For further analysis of what we expect from the 1H26 reporting season, refer to our report Swimming with the Current, published 31 January 2026.</li></ul>

January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).January 2026 is another pointer to the future. High levels of must-run generation will suppress wholesale electricity prices, particularly during low demand months when it is sunny, such as January and December.For further analysis of what we expect from the 1H26 reporting season, refer to our report Swimming with the Current, published 31 January 2026.

Power Points The Future Is Now—February 2026

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Power Points El Nino Set to Make a Splash—May 2026

April 2026 was a strong month for the electricity sector, particularly Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE), which both upgraded FY26 EBITDAF...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy Tracking to Expectations—3Q26 Op Stats

Contact Energy (CEN) has had a strong 3Q26 and remains on track to meet our FY26 EBITDAF forecast, which is +3% higher than CEN's guidance. Higher...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Not All Megawatts Are Equal—March 2026

Contact Energy (CEN) and Genesis Energy (GNE) equity raises were to support new asset development, which remains a key focus for the sector.

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy Accelerating For Growth—1H26 Result

In an unexpected move, Contact Energy (CEN) is raising ~NZ$525m of equity to fund projects brought forward and to increase balance sheet...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points The Future Is Now—February 2026

January 2026 set several records, the most notable of which was a record low wholesale electricity price of just NZ$4/MWh at Otahuhu (OTA).

Forsyth Barr

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