New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Infratil (IFT) has announced it is acquiring TECT's 4.9% stake in Contact Energy (CEN) for NZ$438m.</li><li>We expect this deal to contribute positively to parent-level free cashflow over the medium term (~+NZ$5m by FY30) as CEN's dividend grows.</li><li>CDC indicated it is in 'constant dialogue' with OpenAI.</li></ul>

Infratil (IFT) has announced it is acquiring TECT's 4.9% stake in Contact Energy (CEN) for NZ$438m.We expect this deal to contribute positively to parent-level free cashflow over the medium term (~+NZ$5m by FY30) as CEN's dividend grows.CDC indicated it is in 'constant dialogue' with OpenAI.

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) delivered a strong FY25 result despite the challenging hydro conditions prevalent throughout the year, in line with expectations.</li><li>The focus for FY26 is on integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and realising the synergies.</li><li>The only disappointment was capex rising faster than expected, leading to a modest reduction in our target price.</li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) delivered a strong FY25 result despite the challenging hydro conditions prevalent throughout the year, in line with expectations.The focus for FY26 is on integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and realising the synergies.The only disappointment was capex rising faster than expected, leading to a modest reduction in our target price.

Contact Energy Managing The Hydro Curveball—FY25 Result

<ul><li>The most notable announcement in the past month was the deal between the four large generator/retailers to support the retention of the third Rankine Unit through to at least 2036.</li><li>We have upgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>July 2025 was also notable for very high peak demand periods that largely went unrecognised, and wholesale electricity prices ~-70% lower than July 2024.</li></ul>

The most notable announcement in the past month was the deal between the four large generator/retailers to support the retention of the third Rankine Unit through to at least 2036.We have upgraded Contact Energy (CEN) to OUTPERFORM.July 2025 was also notable for very high peak demand periods that largely went unrecognised, and wholesale electricity prices ~-70% lower than July 2024.

Power Points Delivering Sector Security—August 2025

<ul>
<li>Contact Energy (CEN) has finished FY25 well, and we calculate EBITDAF will be consistent with CEN’s NZ$790m guidance.</li>
<li>Better hydro inflows and increased geothermal generation reduced the need to run thermal generation, lowering CEN’s 4Q25 cost of generation.</li>
<li>CEN’s key challenge for FY26 is integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and extracting the synergy benefits—the transaction was completed on 11 July 2025.</li>
</ul>


Contact Energy (CEN) has finished FY25 well, and we calculate EBITDAF will be consistent with CEN’s NZ$790m guidance.
Better hydro inflows and increased geothermal generation reduced the need to run thermal generation, lowering CEN’s 4Q25 cost of generation.
CEN’s key challenge for FY26 is integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and extracting the synergy benefits—the transaction was completed on 11 July 2025.


Contact Energy Good Finish to FY25, Work Ahead for FY26

<ul><li>The Commerce Commission has cleared Contact Energy's acquisition of Manawa Energy, leading to a significant change in earnings.</li><li>Contact Energy must deliver at least NZ$30m in synergy benefits to provide shareholder value.</li><li>The deal positions Contact Energy as the second-largest generator with a significant development pipeline, although additional debt could make further developments challenging without an equity raise.</li></ul>

The Commerce Commission has cleared Contact Energy's acquisition of Manawa Energy, leading to a significant change in earnings.Contact Energy must deliver at least NZ$30m in synergy benefits to provide shareholder value.The deal positions Contact Energy as the second-largest generator with a significant development pipeline, although additional debt could make further developments challenging without an equity raise.

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Infratil - Contacting OpenAI

We expect this deal to contribute positively to parent-level free cashflow over the medium term (~+NZ$5m by FY30) as CEN's dividend grows.

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy Managing The Hydro Curveball—FY25 Result

Contact Energy (CEN) delivered a strong FY25 result despite the challenging hydro conditions prevalent throughout the year, in line with expectations.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Delivering Sector Security—August 2025

The most notable announcement in the past month was the deal between the four large generator/retailers to support the retention of the third...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy Good Finish to FY25, Work Ahead for FY26

CEN’s key challenge for FY26 is integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and extracting the synergy benefits—the transaction was completed...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Cleared for Takeover

The Commerce Commission has cleared Contact Energy's acquisition of Manawa Energy, leading to a significant change in earnings. Contact Energy...

Forsyth Barr

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