New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) has made a takeover bid for Manawa Energy (MNW) at an effective price of NZ$5.95, a +48% premium to MNW's last closing price and +20% premium to our MNW valuation.</li><li>The deal makes strategic sense, but the offer price is full and will require CEN to deliver on synergy benefits to create value.</li><li>With MNW directors and major shareholders Infratil (IFT) and TECT Holdings supportive of the deal, the only hurdle of note is obtaining Commerce Commission (ComCom) clearance. </li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) has made a takeover bid for Manawa Energy (MNW) at an effective price of NZ$5.95, a +48% premium to MNW's last closing price and +20% premium to our MNW valuation.The deal makes strategic sense, but the offer price is full and will require CEN to deliver on synergy benefits to create value.With MNW directors and major shareholders Infratil (IFT) and TECT Holdings supportive of the deal, the only hurdle of note is obtaining Commerce Commission (ComCom) clearance. 

Contact Energy - Time to Contact the ComCom

<ul>
<li>Contact Energy's (CEN) FY24 result hit the mark, with EBITDAF in line with expectations and well up on FY23, despite its Tauhara commissioning challenges.</li>
<li>Whilst wholesale electricity market conditions remain volatile, we believe CEN is best placed to weather the storm, and our FY25 forecast is little changed.</li>
<li>Recent decisions indicate CEN is preserving cash as much as possible. </li>
</ul>


Contact Energy's (CEN) FY24 result hit the mark, with EBITDAF in line with expectations and well up on FY23, despite its Tauhara commissioning challenges.
Whilst wholesale electricity market conditions remain volatile, we believe CEN is best placed to weather the storm, and our FY25 forecast is little changed.
Recent decisions indicate CEN is preserving cash as much as possible. 


Contact Energy - Pipeline Balancing Act — FY24 Result

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) has had a steady end to FY24, with Tauhara commissioning volumes helping to offset below average hydro generation.</li><li>We calculate FY24 EBITDAF was NZ$662m (after market–making losses), up +NZ$116m on FY23.</li><li>With hydro conditions continuing to be challenging, short-term earnings risk is to the downside, but rising ASX futures prices will help lift medium-term earnings.</li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) has had a steady end to FY24, with Tauhara commissioning volumes helping to offset below average hydro generation.We calculate FY24 EBITDAF was NZ$662m (after market–making losses), up +NZ$116m on FY23.With hydro conditions continuing to be challenging, short-term earnings risk is to the downside, but rising ASX futures prices will help lift medium-term earnings.

Contact Energy - Steady End to FY24 - June '24 Operating Stats

<ul><li>Contact Energy's (CEN) first-time FY25 EBITDAF guidance and dividend guidance was a big disappointment.</li><li>In essence, CEN is short generation and needs to cover its position in a market with elevated wholesale electricity prices.</li><li>The modest-to-flat dividend outlook means investors will have to wait, possibly another three years, before there is meaningful dividend growth. </li></ul>

Contact Energy's (CEN) first-time FY25 EBITDAF guidance and dividend guidance was a big disappointment.In essence, CEN is short generation and needs to cover its position in a market with elevated wholesale electricity prices.The modest-to-flat dividend outlook means investors will have to wait, possibly another three years, before there is meaningful dividend growth. 

Contact Energy - Caught Short — Expectations Revised Lower

<ul><li>Contact Energy (CEN) has got through a tricky 3Q24 largely unscathed and is well positioned for 4Q24 with above average hydro storage.</li><li>In addition, CEN should see the month-long reliability run of its Tauhara geothermal development project, which may now be fully commissioned before the end of FY24, ~three months ahead of CEN's revised timetable.</li><li>We have lifted our FY24 EBITDAF forecast +5% and CEN only has to match FY23 performance to deliver a result ~+NZ$40m ahead of its FY24 EBITDAF guidance. </li></ul>

Contact Energy (CEN) has got through a tricky 3Q24 largely unscathed and is well positioned for 4Q24 with above average hydro storage.In addition, CEN should see the month-long reliability run of its Tauhara geothermal development project, which may now be fully commissioned before the end of FY24, ~three months ahead of CEN's revised timetable.We have lifted our FY24 EBITDAF forecast +5% and CEN only has to match FY23 performance to deliver a result ~+NZ$40m ahead of its FY24 EBITDAF guidance. 

Contact Energy  - Steaming Ahead — March 2024 Op Stats

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Contact Energy - Time to Contact the ComCom

Contact Energy (CEN) has made a takeover bid for Manawa Energy (MNW) at an effective price of NZ$5.95, a +48% premium to MNW's last closing price...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Pipeline Balancing Act — FY24 Result

Contact Energy's (CEN) FY24 result hit the mark, with EBITDAF in line with expectations and well up on FY23, despite its Tauhara commissioning...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Steady End to FY24 - June '24 Operating Stats

Contact Energy (CEN) has had a steady end to FY24, with Tauhara commissioning volumes helping to offset below average hydro generation.

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Caught Short — Expectations Revised Lower

The modest-to-flat dividend outlook means investors will have to wait, possibly another three years, before there is meaningful dividend growth.

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Steaming Ahead — March 2024 Op Stats

Contact Energy (CEN) has got through a tricky 3Q24 largely unscathed and is well positioned for 4Q24 with above average hydro storage. In...

Forsyth Barr

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