New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hydro storage has recovered above the long-run average, benefiting all generators, with Mercury (MCY) being the biggest winner in June 2025.</li><li>Regulatory uncertainty looms, but is not expected to materially affect valuations, with MCY rated OUTPERFORM and others NEUTRAL.</li><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) is considering a new peaking plant, with discussions progressing positively to extend the Rankine units' operational life.</li></ul>

Hydro storage has recovered above the long-run average, benefiting all generators, with Mercury (MCY) being the biggest winner in June 2025.Regulatory uncertainty looms, but is not expected to materially affect valuations, with MCY rated OUTPERFORM and others NEUTRAL.Genesis Energy (GNE) is considering a new peaking plant, with discussions progressing positively to extend the Rankine units' operational life.

Power Points Watts in the Bank—July 2025

<ul><li>May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall alleviating winter 2025 risks.</li><li>The Ministerial Review and Energy Competition Task Force are anticipated to prompt changes, though they may not significantly impact company valuations.</li><li>Mercury (MCY) remains the preferred investment, trading at a discount relative to its history and peers, with the sector showing resilience despite potential challenges in winter 2026.</li></ul>

May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall alleviating winter 2025 risks.The Ministerial Review and Energy Competition Task Force are anticipated to prompt changes, though they may not significantly impact company valuations.Mercury (MCY) remains the preferred investment, trading at a discount relative to its history and peers, with the sector showing resilience despite potential challenges in winter 2026.

Power Points Water Worries Washed Away—June 2025

<ul><li>Hydrology remains a concern, with storage levels improving slightly, but Meridian Energy faced another challenging month.</li><li>The electricity sector offers defensive earnings and dividend growth, with Mercury rated as OUTPERFORM while others remain NEUTRAL.</li><li>The Commerce Commission is expected to make an announcement on Contact Energy's proposed takeover of Manawa Energy by 9 May 2025, with a positive decision anticipated.</li></ul>

Hydrology remains a concern, with storage levels improving slightly, but Meridian Energy faced another challenging month.The electricity sector offers defensive earnings and dividend growth, with Mercury rated as OUTPERFORM while others remain NEUTRAL.The Commerce Commission is expected to make an announcement on Contact Energy's proposed takeover of Manawa Energy by 9 May 2025, with a positive decision anticipated.

Power Points Hydro Holding Pattern—May 2025

<ul><li>The backdrop for the sector conference, Downstream 2025, was the ongoing political and regulatory fallout from record-high winter 2024 prices and current worryingly low hydro lake levels.</li><li>The general conference consensus was that limited gas supply—which has not yet been fully replaced by new generation—is the main cause of the current challenges.</li><li>Nevertheless, political and regulatory risk is currently heightened, and the conference underlined that there will be changes to the market coming. </li></ul>

The backdrop for the sector conference, Downstream 2025, was the ongoing political and regulatory fallout from record-high winter 2024 prices and current worryingly low hydro lake levels.The general conference consensus was that limited gas supply—which has not yet been fully replaced by new generation—is the main cause of the current challenges.Nevertheless, political and regulatory risk is currently heightened, and the conference underlined that there will be changes to the market coming. 

Electricity Sector - Upstream Problematic Downstream

<ul><li>Submissions on the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Statement of Issues (SoI) reinforce our view that, on paper, Contact Energy's (CEN) acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW) passes the legal test for clearance.</li><li>However, negative sector sentiment remains a strong headwind. We still see a 50/50 chance whether the acquisition is cleared.</li><li>The ComCom's next move will be critical. If it publishes a Statement of Unresolved Issues (SoUI), the chances of the acquisition clearing diminishes.</li></ul>

Submissions on the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Statement of Issues (SoI) reinforce our view that, on paper, Contact Energy's (CEN) acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW) passes the legal test for clearance.However, negative sector sentiment remains a strong headwind. We still see a 50/50 chance whether the acquisition is cleared.The ComCom's next move will be critical. If it publishes a Statement of Unresolved Issues (SoUI), the chances of the acquisition clearing diminishes.

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Power Points Watts in the Bank—July 2025

Hydro storage has recovered above the long-run average, benefiting all generators, with Mercury (MCY) being the biggest winner in June 2025.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Water Worries Washed Away—June 2025

May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Hydro Holding Pattern—May 2025

The Commerce Commission is expected to make an announcement on Contact Energy's proposed takeover of Manawa Energy by 9 May 2025, with a positive...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - Upstream Problematic Downstream

The backdrop for the sector conference, Downstream 2025, was the ongoing political and regulatory fallout from record-high winter 2024 prices and...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - Your Move ComCom

The ComCom's next move will be critical. If it publishes a Statement of Unresolved Issues (SoUI), the chances of the acquisition clearing diminishes.

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)