New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Continued strong hydro inflows and remarkably strong electricity demand growth were the key take outs from November 2024.</li><li>Risks of a repeat of winter 2024 appear low, based on ASX futures prices.</li><li>With Contact Energy’s (CEN) Te Huka geothermal plant starting its month-long reliability run, there is significantly more generation in the market compared to 12 months ago. </li></ul>

Continued strong hydro inflows and remarkably strong electricity demand growth were the key take outs from November 2024.Risks of a repeat of winter 2024 appear low, based on ASX futures prices.With Contact Energy’s (CEN) Te Huka geothermal plant starting its month-long reliability run, there is significantly more generation in the market compared to 12 months ago. 

Power Points - Looking Ahead to the New Year — Dec 2024

<ul><li>October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices and relieve winter 2025 anxiety.</li><li>Energy Margin analysis indicates Mercury (MCY) had the strongest month operationally of the generator/retailers, with Meridian Energy (MEL) still held back by the high cost hedging it took out.</li><li>With Methanex recommencing operations, November 2024 should be a more representative month for the generator/retailers. </li></ul>

October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices and relieve winter 2025 anxiety.Energy Margin analysis indicates Mercury (MCY) had the strongest month operationally of the generator/retailers, with Meridian Energy (MEL) still held back by the high cost hedging it took out.With Methanex recommencing operations, November 2024 should be a more representative month for the generator/retailers. 

Power Points - Hydro Recovery Continues — November 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>September 2024 was a record month for Contact Energy (CEN), courtesy of a strong rebound in hydro generation and being able to sell high-priced hedge contracts to competitors.</li><li>We expect that momentum to continue through October 2024, at which point the high-priced hedge contract ceases.</li><li>In addition, CEN has good momentum with its new geothermal plant. </li></ul>

September 2024 was a record month for Contact Energy (CEN), courtesy of a strong rebound in hydro generation and being able to sell high-priced hedge contracts to competitors.We expect that momentum to continue through October 2024, at which point the high-priced hedge contract ceases.In addition, CEN has good momentum with its new geothermal plant. 

Contact Energy - Well-Timed Inflows Enable Record Sept 2024

<ul><li>Based on the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Mergers &amp; Acquisitions (M&amp;A) guidelines, and our analysis of the wholesale electricity market, we believe that Contact Energy's (CEN) proposed acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW) is likely to be approved.</li><li>However, it is not a fait accompli, given the political and regulatory scrutiny the sector is currently under and the perception of reduced competition.</li><li>We lift the probability that the deal will be cleared to 70% (from 50%). </li></ul>

Based on the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Mergers &amp; Acquisitions (M&amp;A) guidelines, and our analysis of the wholesale electricity market, we believe that Contact Energy's (CEN) proposed acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW) is likely to be approved.However, it is not a fait accompli, given the political and regulatory scrutiny the sector is currently under and the perception of reduced competition.We lift the probability that the deal will be cleared to 70% (from 50%). 

Contact Energy - Watts on the ComCom’s Mind

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.</li><li>This has the potential to give a much needed injection of energy into the downbeat NZ economy.</li><li>Paired with all but certain continued interest rate cuts, the contours of an economic recovery are starting to take shape.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.This has the potential to give a much needed injection of energy into the downbeat NZ economy.Paired with all but certain continued interest rate cuts, the contours of an economic recovery are starting to take shape.

New Zealand Moving Out of the Slow Lane - Fast-Track Approvals Welcome News

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Power Points - Looking Ahead to the New Year — Dec 2024

Continued strong hydro inflows and remarkably strong electricity demand growth were the key take outs from November 2024.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Hydro Recovery Continues — November 2024

October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Well-Timed Inflows Enable Record Sept 2024

September 2024 was a record month for Contact Energy (CEN), courtesy of a strong rebound in hydro generation and being able to sell high-priced...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy - Watts on the ComCom’s Mind

We lift the probability that the deal will be cleared to 70% (from 50%). The ComCom is expected to release its Statement of Preliminary Issues in...

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Moving Out of the Slow Lane - Fast-Track Approvals Welcome News

The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.

Forsyth Barr

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