New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 prices</li><li>Cold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plant</li><li>If the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive</li></ul>

First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 pricesCold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plantIf the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Contact Energy's (CEN) stuttering start to FY23 continued in August 2022 with EBITDAF of NZ$39m the lowest in the past ten years</li><li>Whilst the start to FY23 has been challenging, we believe CEN is well positioned for stronger earnings in later months given hydro storage volumes and rising ASX futures prices</li><li>CEN remains our preferred electricity stock and we retain our NEUTRAL rating</li></ul>

Contact Energy's (CEN) stuttering start to FY23 continued in August 2022 with EBITDAF of NZ$39m the lowest in the past ten yearsWhilst the start to FY23 has been challenging, we believe CEN is well positioned for stronger earnings in later months given hydro storage volumes and rising ASX futures pricesCEN remains our preferred electricity stock and we retain our NEUTRAL rating

<ul><li>Electricity share prices have not responded to lift in interest rates: The 10-year swap rate is back above 4.0%, ending August at 4.1% and is currently 4.3%</li><li>August 2022 rounded off a wet winter, bigger development pipelines revealed</li><li>New GNE market security option (MSO) unlikely to excite the market, but may lift peak wholesale electricity prices</li></ul>

Electricity share prices have not responded to lift in interest rates: The 10-year swap rate is back above 4.0%, ending August at 4.1% and is currently 4.3%August 2022 rounded off a wet winter, bigger development pipelines revealedNew GNE market security option (MSO) unlikely to excite the market, but may lift peak wholesale electricity prices

Power Points: Lakes and Valuations Full— September 2022

<ul><li>CEN's announcement that it will be building its Te Huka geothermal project (scheduled for completion late-2024) and indicative CY25 EBITDAF of NZ$720m were the key take-outs from the result</li><li>July 2022 EBITDAF of NZ$44m appears ~-NZ$15m below what CEN needs to hit FY23 EBITDAF guidance</li><li>FY23 dividend guidance is flat at 35cps</li></ul>

CEN's announcement that it will be building its Te Huka geothermal project (scheduled for completion late-2024) and indicative CY25 EBITDAF of NZ$720m were the key take-outs from the resultJuly 2022 EBITDAF of NZ$44m appears ~-NZ$15m below what CEN needs to hit FY23 EBITDAF guidanceFY23 dividend guidance is flat at 35cps

Contact Energy: Hooking into Earnings Growth — FY22 Result

<ul><li>A huge generation month for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mighty-river-power/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MCY</a>, heavy inflows ease pressure on wholesale electricity prices heading into back half of winter</li><li>Climate Change Commission suggest changes to lift the carbon price, note potential impact on renewable generators earnings</li><li>FY22 reporting season — Earnings recover thanks to improved hydro generation, future developments to be the focus </li></ul>

A huge generation month for MCY, heavy inflows ease pressure on wholesale electricity prices heading into back half of winterClimate Change Commission suggest changes to lift the carbon price, note potential impact on renewable generators earningsFY22 reporting season — Earnings recover thanks to improved hydro generation, future developments to be the focus 

Power Points: Lakes Enjoy a Timely Top Up — August 2022

New Zealand

Contact Energy Limited is a diversified and integrated energy company which focuses on the generation of electricity and the sale of electricity and gas in New Zealand.

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Contact Energy (CEN NZ)

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

The cold snap in early September 2022 resulted in wild wholesale electricity price fluctuations, highlighting the market would benefit from more...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy: Stuttering Start to FY23

Contact Energy's (CEN) stuttering start to FY23 continued in August 2022 with EBITDAF of NZ$39m the lowest in the past ten years

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Lakes and Valuations Full— September 2022

The big wet hit August 2022, resulting in hydro storage hitting an all time high (170% of average) for this time of year, which in turn suppressed...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy: Hooking into Earnings Growth — FY22 Result

The key announcement from Contact Energy's FY22 result was the go ahead for its 51MW Te Huka geothermal development — six months earlier than...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Lakes Enjoy a Timely Top Up — August 2022

Lifting hydro storage +30pp to 123% of average; GNE and MCY reported solid sets of 4Q22 operating statistics; CEN and MEL posted decent finishes to...

Forsyth Barr

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